NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6

by Joey House - 10/9/2024

It may be the "Year of the Dragon" in the Chinese Zodiac, but it is clearly the year of the dog in the NFL calendar. Two more touchdown home favorites fell last week. The San Francisco 49ers blew their sixth 4th-quarter lead since Kyle Shanahan became their head coach. In the decade that legendary Bill Walsh roamed the sidelines as the Niners boss, San Francisco coughed up double-digit 4th-quarter leads just three times. We went 7-7 last week in our picks for 53 points.

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14 points—Philadelphia over Cleveland: The Eagles are coming off a bye and hopeful to regain their big-play receivers. Remember when Browns QB Deshaun Watson was one of the best players in the league? Now he is 29th in the NFL in QB rating with a 74.8. Philly is 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Brownies.

13 points—Houston over New England: I don't know what's worse: New England's scoring only 12.4 ppg or ranking 31st out of 32 teams. Surprisingly, Houston leads the league in passing, with 272.4 ypg. By the time the Pats play on Sunday, it will have been 357 days and seven games since their last victory at Foxboro. Houston adds to that misery.

12 points—Detroit over Dallas: Since that bogus loss last year at Dallas, the Lions are 6-2 SU and have looked tough this season. QB Jared Goff's last game out was perfect: 18-18, 292 yards and 2 TDs. That's bad news for a Cowboy secondary who's banged up and could be missing LB Micah Parsons again.

11 points—Cincinnati over NY Giants (SNF): While the Giants did pick their second win of the season last Sunday, they are now traveling cross-country again to take on the Bengals' 5th-best passing attack. Cincinnati's scoring defense is second-worst in the league, giving up 29.0 ppg, but New York won't be able to take advantage of that, only putting up 17.8 ppg. The Bengals are 6-3 ATS against the Giants in their last 9 meetings.

10 points—Buffalo over NY Jets (MNF): The Jets just fired their head coach, who admittedly was not very good. However, they have more issues than just the headman and are returning from playing overseas, which is always taxing. Buffalo is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against their AFC East rivals.

9 points—San Francisco over Seattle (TNF): Seattle is in the midst of playing 3 games in 10 days and has already lost two of them. The Niners will have to hold onto one of these leads, right? San Francisco is 5-0 SU against Seattle in the last 5 matchups.

8 points—Pittsburgh over Las Vegas: Watching the Raiders play, it seems the players have quit the coaching staff. That's not good when you're 22nd in scoring offense (19.2) and 28th in scoring defense (26.2 ppg). The Steelers also have their issues scoring (18.4) but stop just about everyone (14.6 ppg, 2nd in the league).

7 points—Indianapolis over Tennessee: This could be a battle of the backup QBs, as both starters are questionable. The Colts haven't been horrible on offense, with 225 ypg passing and 125 ypg rushing, both 12th in the league. Their gaping hole is pass defense, allowing 262 ypg. Fortunately for them, nobody will remember this Titans' air unit, gaining just 145 ypg. Indy is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games in Nashville.

6 points—Green Bay over Arizona: Arizona just had their massive comeback win in San Francisco, but I don't see them putting in that kind of effort two weeks in a row on the road. Even when it's not frozen, Lambeau Field has been good to the Packers, as they are 7-1 SU the last 8 times they have hosted the Cardinals.

5 points—Tampa Bay over New Orleans: The Saints will be forced to turn backup Jake Haener, as starting QB Derek Carr has been ruled out. Tampa is 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and will have had ten days rest. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield has always enjoyed playing against the Saints, throwing for over 700 yards in 3 games with a 6-3 TD/INT ratio.

4 points—Carolina over Atlanta: My first attempt to pick a home dog of a touchdown or more. The home team has won the last four times in this matchup. The Panthers offense has responded under the leadership of the "Red Rifle" QB Andy Dalton. The Falcons are 3-13 SU in the last 16 games they've played away from home.

3 points— Denver over LA Chargers: This AFC West battle features the top 2 scoring defenses in the league (Chargers are 1st with 12.5 ppg allowed, Denver 2nd at 14.6). Denver's rookie QB Bo Nix started like most rookies (not like Jayden Daniels) but has shown remarkable improvement almost every week (rough game against the Jets a few weeks ago). The Chargers don't like the Mile-High City, as they have lost 5 consecutive times in Denver.

2 points—Jacksonville over Chicago: With the amount of time Jacksonville plays over there, I hope England doesn't think they're the best the NFL has to offer. Bears QB Caleb Williams has been solid, but traveling across the pond poses problems he's never had to face. The Jaguars stayed over in England from last week's game, which is a huge advantage.

1 point—Washington over Baltimore: This is a fantastic matchup between the top 2 scoring offenses (Commanders with 31.0 ppg and Ravens at 29.4 ppg). Washington's rookie sensation QB Jayden Daniels has been playing at a historic rate. He should go off against a Ravens' defense, giving up 280 ypg. Washington is 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games.

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Start:	November 21, 2024 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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