NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5
The first week of October football brings us Week 5 in the NFL Confidence Pool. We bounced back with a 10-6 record and 81 points.
We were five points away from having a monster week, as the Packers and Saints both lost by two points, and the New York Jets missed a last-second field goal and fell to the Broncos, 10-9. The Jets' loss was especially excruciating for me because that was my final Survivor Pool pick.
In addition to dropping to 14 games, the NFL heads overseas this week for the first of four games in Europe, beginning with the New York Jets taking on the Minnesota Vikings. With Philadelphia and Green Bay playing in Brazil the opening week of the season, the 2024 season marks the NFL's first with five games overseas.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
14 points— Kansas City over New Orleans (MNF): Four weeks into the season, we are down to only two undefeated teams: Kansas City and Minnesota. The Chiefs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
13 points—Seattle over New York Giants: These defenses are 14th (21.3 ppg) and 13th (21.0 ppg), respectively, in defensive scoring allowed. The difference comes in offense, where Seattle is scoring 25.5 ppg, and the New York Giants are putting up 15.0 ppg. The Seahawks are 6-1 SU/ATS in their last seven meetings with the G-Men.
12 points—San Francisco over Arizona: San Francisco's offense is 1st in passing yards (271.5 ypg), 2nd in total yards (413.2 ypg), and 8th in scoring (25.8 ppg). The Cardinals defense is 25th in total yards (354.8 ypg), 30th in QB rating (108.5), and 29th in scoring (26.5 ppg). Arizona is also 1-4 SU/ATS in their last 5 games against the Niners and 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games.
11 points—Washington over Cleveland: The Commanders have been defying expectations this season, with rookie QB Jayden Daniels looking like the real deal. Washington's weakness is a defense giving up 25.5 ppg (25th in the NFL). Luckily for them, the Browns seem allergic to scoring, putting up just 16.5 ppg (27th).
10 points—Buffalo over Houston: Wide receiver Stephon Diggs leaving may have made Bills QB Josh Al\len better. Six different Bills receivers have hauled in touchdown receptions, with only WR Khali Shakir grabbing two. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against AFC East foes.
9 points—Green Bay over LA Rams: Even though they lost last weekend, the Packers played well, and QB Jordan Love looked sharp, except for his 3 picks. Luckily for him, the Rams horrible defense (28.8 ppg, 31st in the league) only has 1 INT over 4 games.
9 points—Minnesota over NY Jets (Sun. morning in London): So far this season, Minnesota is the surprise in the NFL. Sam Darnold (68.9% completion percentage, 932 yards, league-leading 11 TD passes, and 3 INTs) finally looks like the QB the Jets had envisioned when they drafted him 3rd overall in 2018. Unfortunately for the Greenies of the world, it's for another team.
8 points—Tampa Bay over Atlanta: Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in their last eight games against the Falcons. Atlanta's offense is in the bottom half of the league in every significant metric except yards per carry, where they are 10th. Both teams have defeated Philadelphia: Atlanta on a last-minute FG 22-21 and Tampa last week 33-16.
7 points—Baltimore over Cincinnati: The Ravens have a strong historical edge, going 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against the Bengals. Lamar Jackson has a passer rating against the Bengals of 96.8 with 14 TDs to just 4 INTs in 9 games. Baltimore's run defense leads the NFL, allowing only 49.5 yards per game, while the Ravens' own ground game leads the league in yards (220.2 ypg) and yards per carry with 6.4 ypc.
6 points—Pittsburgh over Dallas: A bad Dallas defense may lose its best defender, LB Micah Parsons, who is questionable. Even if the Cowboys have Parsons, Pittsburgh has the superior defense. Over the last 12 games at Heinz Field, the Steelers are 8-4 SU/ATS.
5 points—Denver over Las Vegas: Denver's offense (15.5 ppg, 28th of 32) and defense (13.8 ppg, 3rd of 32) are terrible, while Las Vegas is just subpar in both, scoring 19.5 ppg (19th) and giving up 24.3 ppg (24th). The Raiders seem to have massive internal problems, and head coach Antonio Pierce is over his head.
4 points—Minnesota over NY Jets (Sun. morning in London): So far this season, Minnesota is the surprise in the NFL. Sam Darnold (68.9% completion percentage, 932 yards, league-leading 11 TD passes, and 3 INTs) finally looks like the QB the Jets had envisioned when they drafted him 3rd overall in 2018. Unfortunately for the Greenies of the world, it's for another team.
3 points—Jacksonville over Indianapolis: While I don't have nearly as much faith in Jags QB Trevor Lawerence as the Jacksonville front office does, I have ZERO confidence in Colts QB Anthony Richardson to do anything except throw interceptions (50.6 % completion percentage, 654 yards, 3 TDs, and 6 INTs). Indy is 1-9 SU/ATS in their last ten visits to Jacksonville.
2 points—New England over Miami: Dolphins newly acquired QB Tyler Huntley looked horrible in the Fins' Monday Night loss to Tennesse. If things weren't bad enough for Miami, now their most important offensive weapon, WR Tyreek Hill, is not happy. New England is still bad, but Miami is currently worse.
1 point—Carolina over Chicago: Carolina QB Andy Dalton followed up his first game-winning performance with another solid effort, but the Panthers fell in defeat to a hungry Cincy squad. There are still issues on defense for the Panthers, but luckily, offensively challenged Chicago won't be able to exploit those holes. +
Season Record
Week 1: 10-6 for 96 points
Week 2: 6-10 for 49 points
Week 3: 6-10 for 53 points
Week 4: 10-6 for 81 points
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