Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 4

by Joey House - 9/25/2024

NFL confidence pool picks Week 4 Bork Purdy San Francisco 49ers

Welcome back to Week 4 of Doc Sports NFL Confidence Pool Series, where we aim to guide you around—and sometimes into—the many potholes on the road to winning your pool.

Week 3 saw another remarkable run of underdogs between 6.5 and 7.5 points, going 5-1 straight up. I saw a tweet that mentioned, for the first time in over 70 years, the biggest underdog on the board won outright in each of the first three weeks of the season. This NFL season isn't being called the "Year of the Dog" for nothing.

Unfortunately, I was bitten by a few of those dogs for the second consecutive week, as my picks went 6-10, earning 53 points. Not all upsets are alike, though. On one hand, you have wire-to-wire upsets, like Denver's 26-7 win at Tampa Bay, where the Broncos took the lead in the first 4 minutes and 55 seconds and never relinquished it. That kind of loss is frustrating but relatively easy to swallow.

However, San Francisco's 27-24 loss against the Los Angeles Rams tells a different story. The Niners jumped out to an early first-quarter lead and then kicked a field goal earlier in the fourth quarter to extend that lead to 10 points. The Rams rallied to score 13 points in the game's final 6 minutes and 15 seconds, making it a bitter pill to swallow.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points— Kansas City over LA Chargers: In one of these games, the Chiefs will come out flat and lay an egg. However, it won't be against a Chargers team they are 5-0 SU against on the road. The Chargers' QB, Justin Herbert, is questionable with a knee injury, putting the "Beer Man" QB Taylor Heinicke in the spotlight.

15 points—San Francisco over New England: The first week aside, New England has looked as bad as people expected. They are 31st in scoring with 13 ppg and even worse in passing yards, dead last with 102 ypg. They are also 2-4 SU in their last six visits to San Francisco.

14 points—NY Jets over Denver: I've been hesitant to fully back QB Aaron Rodgers because I wanted to see how much rust there was on the 41-year-old's body. Through the first three games, he resembles a future HOF QB more than he does a washed-up signal caller preparing to retire. Denver isn't very dangerous away from the altitude of Mile High, going just 5-15 SU over their last 20 away games.

13 points—Green Bay over Minnesota: Minnesota may be the biggest surprise through three games, with their record a perfect 3-0. QB Sam Darnold has turned back the clock to his days at USC when he reigned supreme. Jeff Hafley, Green Bay's defensive coordinator, has the Packers playing hyper-aggressively, as they lead the league with 7 INTs and are tied with a few teams for 5th in sacks—generating 3.7/game. Jordan Love may return at QB for Green Bay. The Packers are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games against their division rivals.

12 points—New Orleans over Atlanta: One of the most common errors in early handicapping is overreacting week by week. New Orleans had been averaging 185 ypg on the ground before the Eagles held them to 89 yards on Sunday Night. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins doesn't have Atlanta firing on all cylinders yet, as they are 26th in scoring (16.3 ppg) and below average in both passing and total yards. New Orleans is 5-1 the last six times they've traveled to the "Dirty-Dirty."

11 points—Houston over Jacksonville: Jacksonville showed little life or interest in their demolition on MNF. Their scoring offense and scoring defense are pathetic: 13.3 ppg (30th of 32) on offense and giving up 28.3 ppg (28th). They're on the back end of a two-game road trip and taking on a Houston squad they have historically struggled against, going just 2-10 SU over their last 12 meetings.

10 points—Dallas over NY Giants (TNF): While Dallas has the worst run defense in the league (185.7 ypg), the Giants won't be able to capitalize with a mediocre rushing number (105.0 ypg and just 2 rushing TDs). The Cowboys are currently on a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run over their divisional rivals in New York, including a 40-0 triumph the last time they visited the Big Apple.

9 points—Detroit over Seattle (MNF): Seattle is also a pleasant surprise, with a 3-0 SU record and top 10 offense and defensive scoring (24.3 ppg for and 14.3 ppg against). However, they have benefited from playing some lower-caliber teams, which could skew the stats. Detroit's head coach, Dan Campbell, will forever scare me with a dumb call potential.

8 points—LA Rams over Chicago: The Rams are 1-2 SU/ATS with poor statistical rankings. However, their first three opponents were Detroit, the suddenly high-powered Arizona, and the miraculous come-from-behind win against San Francisco. Chicago's schedule was a bit easier, facing Tennessee, Houston, and Indianapolis. The Bears have had difficulty sustaining offensive drives, with an average distance gained of just 22 yards, 30th in the league. The Rams have gotten the best of the series lately, going 4-2 SU/ATS.

7 points—Pittsburgh over Indianapolis: The Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is a great athlete, just not a good quarterback. He's below 50% in completion percentage, and he's tossed a league-high 6 INTs so far this year. Now, he faces a ball-hawk Steelers defense that has picked off opposing quarterbacks four times already. An excellent prop bet strategy would be to take Richardson over 1.5 INTs, then layer up on the alternate line.

6 points—Las Vegas over Cleveland: The real question is, what Vegas team will show up? The Raiders who rallied with 13 4th-quarter points to win on the road in Baltimore, or the team that gave up 306 passing yards to "The Red Rocket"? Regardless, they're facing a dumpster fire in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson is 30th out of 32 in the NFL in passing yards. The Browns are 1-4 SU in their last five meetings with Las Vegas.

5 points—Cincinnati over Carolina: I need to see one more week of Dalton before I can start backing him. The Bengals have improved on offense each week. Unfortunately, its defense has regressed. This game very well could end up being another high-scoring affair. The Bengals are 9-1 in their last ten games against teams from the NFC.

4 points—Tennessee over Miami (SNF): It wasn't easy to make this selection, but Miami's team is rapidly eroding due to injuries. These might very well be the worst two teams in the NFL, and the Titans suck a little less. Tennessee has an above-average pass defense, giving up 139 yards through the air.

3 points—Baltimore over Buffalo: The Ravens, at 1-2, are already 2 games behind the hated Steelers. Buffalo is coming off a short week, a big win, and now has to hit the road. The Bills have struggled down amongst the crabs of Baltimore, going just 1-5 SU in their last six games. The Ravens are 12-5 in their last 17 games at home.

2 points—Tampa Bay over Philadelphia: The Eagles continue to rack up the injuries, with their 2nd-leading receiver, DeVonta Smith, getting a concussion in their Sunday victory. More importantly, Lane Johnson, a future HOF'er right tackle, injured his leg, and his status is unavailable. Not only are the Eagles hindered by injuries, they have the worst in-game coach in the league, maybe in the history of the NFL. All Tampa Bay has to do is just let Sirianni throw away the game. It also helps that Tampa is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games.

1 point—Arizona over Washington: The Commanders have not punted or had a turnover on any possession in the past two games. They took a knee a few times to end the game. They're coming off a great Monday Night win in Cincinnati as the biggest underdog of the week. Having to travel across the country after a short week is challenging. Arizona is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games against teams from the NFC East.

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Confidence Pool Picks

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers