NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

by Joey House - 9/17/2024

Nick Bogdanovich, an oddsmaker for Circa Sportsbook and handicapper for over 40 years, said Sunday was one of the best days for the sportsbooks that he can remember. When the sportsbooks are having great days, we will have horrible ones. Philadelphia losing on Monday night was the cherry on a complete turd sundae. Our final record for the weekend was 6-10 and 49 points.

To put this unprecedented beginning of the football season into perspective, underdogs of seven or more points are 3-0 SU for the first time in NFL history. STRAIGHT UP! Dogs of six or more points are a perfect 8-0 ATS, with an average margin of victory of 9.5 points.

In times like these, it's essential to stay confident. Football's inherent unpredictability can lead to rough patches, but maintaining a clear perspective is vital. Treat each setback as an opportunity to reassess game trends and sharpen your analysis. Stick to your research and strategy, even when outcomes aren't favorable. Football is full of ups and downs. And by staying focused and adaptable, you'll be well-positioned to seize future opportunities and come back stronger.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points— Los Angeles Chargers over Pittsburgh Steelers: After their 26-3 victory over the hapless Carolina Panthers, the L.A. Chargers stayed on the East Coast for this week's game in Pittsburgh. The Chargers' rush defense has been impressive this season, which is bad news for a run-heavy Steelers squad.

15 points—Seattle Seahawks over Miami Dolphins: With Tua out indefinitely with a concussion, Miami will be my most significant "fade" team until they prove otherwise. Even with a healthy Tua, this would be a tough game for the Fins to win. Seattle is 5-1 SU in their last six games.

14 points—Las Vegas Raiders over Carolina Panthers: Carolina has benched QB Bryce Young in favor of 37-year-old Andy Dalton. While I love "The Red Rifle," Dalton isn't going to be the answer to their problems. Las Vegas is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests.

13 points—Buffalo Bills over Jacksonville Jaguars (MNF): Buffalo gets a couple of extra days off, with their last game against Miami occurring 11 days before they host Jacksonville. The Bills offense doesn't seem to miss their departed wide receivers all that much, as 10 players have two or more receptions. The Jaguars continue to find ways to lose games they should be winning.

12 points—Cincinnati Bengals over Washington Commanders (MNF.): This is the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Washington has the makings of a good offense, but their defense is an anchor that will slow their success down. Sunday's win against the Giants was the Commanders' first in 10 games. The Bengals have decimated teams from the NFC, going 9-0 S.U. in their last nine games. They run that streak into double digits after Monday night.

11 points—Tampa Bay over Denver Broncos: Tampa Bay was one of the 7-point dogs to win outright, so it would almost be poetic justice if they were to lose in the same situation. But with Denver scoring just 13 ppg, I can't back them. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield seems to have found his home, as he is second in the league in QB rating and first with five TD passes.

10 points—Kansas City Chiefs over Atlanta Falcons: Tough stretch for the Falcons, going into Philly (and winning), hosting the Chiefs on a short week, and then hosting the NFL’s newest powerhouse, the New Orleans Saints. Kansas City is on an 8-game winning streak and is 7-3 SU against the Falcons over their last 10 meetings.

9 points—San Francisco over L.A. Rams: Both teams are suffering from the injury bug, but the Niners have a few more weapons they can utilize and a better defense. The Rams QB, Matthew Stafford, needs to find a new go-to target quickly, as injured WR Copper Kupp was thrown to 27 times, and the next closest receiver was targeted 11 times. San Francisco has owned the Rams in recent history, with an 8-2 record over the last five seasons.

8 points—Arizona Cardinals over Detroit Lions: I thought I'd try out the new "underdog fad." The Lions have struggled on the road in Arizona, going just 2-9 ATS over their last 11 visits, and the Cardinals are a field-goal home dog. Arizona's Kyler Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr. is rapidly becoming the new "It" connection.

7 points—Minnesota Vikings over Houston Texans: While the Vikings QB Sam Darnold wowed everybody with his career-long 97-yard TD pass to Justin Jefferson, the Vikings defense is quietly becoming a force. They have allowed 11.5 ppg and forced four turnovers through the first two weeks. Texans QB C.J. Stroud has been excellent in his short career, but his road splits are significant, gaining 73 yards a game less away from home. Part of this is from the air yards per attempt dropping from 9.32 at home to 7.79 on the road.

6 points—Green Bay Packers over Tennessee Titans: Green Bay's first game without franchise QB Jordan Love was a success, defeating Indianapolis 16-10. Now, they travel to Tennessee to take on an offensively challenged Titans squad. Running games tend to travel quite well, and with Josh Jacobs hauling the rock, Green Bay is set.

5 points—New England Patriots over New York Jets: New York's January win over New England last season was the first Jets victory over the Patriots since 2015. That statistic becomes even more impressive as the GOAT Tom Brady hasn't suited up for the Pats since 2019. New England's head coach, Jerrod Mayo, was a Pro Bowl linebacker for the Patriots from 2008-2015, and you can see his defensive influence on this year's squad, as they are 5th in points against with 16.5 ppg allowed.

4 points—Cleveland Browns over New York Giants: The Giants are a team in complete disarray. Cleveland isn't much better, but scratched out a win against Jacksonville. If Browns QB Deshaun Watson is ever going to get his shit together, it'll be against a Giants squad that is epically inept.

3 points—New Orleans Saints over Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles' defense has been thoroughly underwhelming this season, while the Saints' offense has been the polar opposite. Philly isn't the same team without WR A.J. Brown.

2 points—Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys: Baltimore let a win slip away last week against Las Vegas, losing 26-23 in a game they had dominated. They lead the league in offensive yards, which is bad news for a Cowboys defense that is giving up 330 yards and 30.5 points a game.

1 point—Chicago Bears over Indianapolis Colts: The Bears offense looked markedly better in their second week, even though they lost at Houston. Chicago's defense should have a field day against Anthony Richardson, whose completion percentage is below 50% and has a 3-4 TD-INT ratio.

Year-to-Date Totals

Win-Loss Record: 16-16

Points: 145 points

Week 1: 10-6 (96 pts)

Week 2: 6-10 (49 pts)

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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

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