NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 18
Welcome to the final edition of Doc's 2024-25 NFL Confidence Pool! As we prepare to wrap up this thrilling season, it's hard to believe how quickly the weeks have flown by. The opening weeks of the 2024 NFL season were nothing short of remarkable, characterized by a whirlwind of upsets that defied expectations and left fans and sports analysts in disbelief. Sportsbooks reveled in their strong financial performances as underdogs frequently won the square money. However, as the season progressed, the statistical landscape began to normalize.
Historically, since the beginning of the 2002 NFL season, there has been a strong trend in which favorites win straight-up (SU) at an average rate of 66.9% while they manage to cover the spread (ATS) around 49.1%. However, as the dust settled on this year's regular season, it was evident that favorites had performed exceptionally well. The stats reveal that going into the season's final week, they have an impressive 71.5% SU win rate and are covering ATS at a 55.3% clip. If you had only bet favorites across the board each week, you would have turned a tidy profit. This progression suggests that while the start of the season was rife with surprising outcomes, the latter stages showcased a return to the expected levels of performance, restoring a sense of balance to the league as teams found their foot
I want to thank Mike Allen for stepping in last week while I was dealing with a personal issue. Mike performed exceptionally well, akin to a great setup pitcher in baseball, finishing with a record of 13-3 and earning 116 points. His performance is particularly impressive given the current challenges of handicapping during the NFL season, as the regular season's final weeks seemingly mirror the preseason's abnormal results.
The preseason and the final weeks of the regular season share similar problems, though they stem from different circumstances. In the preseason, uncertainty looms over which players will start and their playing time, as teams often use these games to evaluate rosters and provide backups with valuable experience. Conversely, during the last few weeks of the season, while starting lineups become clearer, playoff-bound teams frequently rest key players to prevent injuries, leading to unpredictable outcomes. Additionally, teams out of playoff contention may be mentally disengaged or "tanking" to position themselves better for the draft. These complexities highlight the challenges faced in each phase of the season, underscoring the significance of Mike's impressive performance amidst such uncertainty.
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16 points— Baltimore over Cleveland (Sat): If you believe in revenge scenarios, Baltimore will be out for blood after losing inexplicably to the Browns in the middle of the season. Looking at trends, Cleveland is 3-13 SU in their last 16 visits to the home of Edgar Allen Poe.
15 points— Green Bay over Chicago: Green Bay has a sliver of a chance to move from the 7th seed to the 6th, which would change their wildcard opponent from the Eagles to the LA Rams. Chicago is 0-10 SU/1-9 ATS in their last ten meetings with their division rivals, the Packers.
14 points—Tampa Bay over New Orleans: Tampa Bay's playoff probability plummets from 99% if they win to 29% if they lose to the Saints. New Orleans has been a "dead man walking" for quite some time and are 1-4 SU in their last five games against the Buccaneers.
13 points—Atlanta over Carolina: Atlanta's playoff dreams are on life support, but they are still mathematically alive. Carolina is 1-6 SU on the road this season and still has the NFL's worst scoring defense, giving up 31.0 ppg.
12 points—Washington over Dallas: Washington has already clinched a playoff berth but needs to defeat their beleaguered division rivals in order to maintain their current 6th seed. If they lose and Green Bay wins, then the Commanders would play Philadelphia for a third time, with the game being in "The City of Brotherly Love."
11 points— Cincinnati over Pittsburgh (Sat): Cincinnati needs this win, plus some other help, to keep their playoff hopes alive. Even though Pittsburgh handed the Bengals their most recent defeat (44-38 on Dec. 1st), there isn't a hotter quarterback in the league than Cincy's Joe "Cool" Burrow. Pittsburgh can still win the AFC North, but they need one hated rival, Cleveland, to defeat another, Baltimore.
10 points—Miami over NY Jets: The Dolphins currently have an 8-8 record and an 11% chance of playing next week, so they must defeat the Jets in Metlife Stadium. Luckily for Miami, they are 10-3 SU the last 13 times they traveled to New Jersey in the winter months of December or January to battle the Jets.
9 points— Seattle over LA Rams: The LA Rams will be resting quite a few of his starters, including QB Matthew Stafford. Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start in place of Stafford. Even though Seattle has been eliminated, they can secure their first 10-win season since the 2020 campaign and give first-year coach Mike Macdonald the most wins by a Seahawks coach in his inaugural season.
8 points—Buffalo over New England: If this game had been played three weeks earlier, it would probably be 14 or 15 points. I wonder how long Buffalo's quarterback, Josh Allen, will stay in. He may be able to run up a big enough lead that it won't matter.
7 points—Denver over Kansas City: The Chiefs are resting their primary offensive weapons, and Denver, like Tampa Bay, holds its destiny in its hands. If the Broncos win, they're in; if they lose, they must rely on other teams to lose. Carson Wentz makes his first start under center since last year with the Rams and his first start in a Chiefs uniform.
6 points— LA Chargers over Las Vegas: The Chargers have clinched, but I'm not sure it's in Jim Harbaugh's DNA to rest players and be willing to give up a win. The Raiders are on a winning streak, but against the likes of the Saints and Jaguars. Los Angeles still has the top-scoring defense (17.6 ppg) in the league, and Las Vegas averages 18.1 ppg (28th).
5 points—Arizona over San Francisco: San Francisco became the first Super Bowl-losing team not to make the playoffs since San Francisco did this in the 2020 season, following their first Super Bowl matchup against the Chiefs. The Niners will be starting former Cardinals' QB Josh Dobbs.
4 points— Philadelphia over NY Giants: Philadelphia's head coach Nick Sirianni announced on New Year's Day that the Eagles' primary offense weapons would not play in the season finale against the Giants. It won't matter against the hapless Giants. The G-Men defeated the Colts last week to snap a 10-game losing streak. However, that was 1. Against the Colts and 2. In MetLife Stadium. The Eagles are 11-0 in the last 11 games hosting their northeastern neighbors.
3 points— Indianapolis over Jacksonville: The grizzled veteran Joe Flacco is starting for the Colts and will use Indy's 8th-best rushing attack (134 ypg) against Jacksonville's 9th-worst rush defense (129 ypg).
2 points— Houston over Tennessee: Tennessee's nightmare season is almost over. They have the 2nd-worst turnover differential in the NFL, with -16, while Houston has been very opportunistic with a +10 differential (6th). No Titans' QB has thrown for over 300 yards this season.
1 point— Detroit over Minnesota (SNF): Arguably the most crucial game of the weekend, as it decides the NFC North title and home-field advantage in the NFC throughout the playoffs. The Lions have almost two dozen players on the injured reserve, but they still have found a way to continue winning. In the last four meetings of these division rivals in the Motor City, the Lions are 3-1 SU/ 4-0 ATS. Detroit has the highest-scoring offensive unit with 33.3 ppg and the 9th-best scoring defense at 20.8. Minnesota has the 9th-best offense (26.4 ppg) and 4th-best defense (18.8 ppg). The Lions' Achilles Heel is their pass defense, which gives up 250 ypg, 2nd-worst in the league.
SEASON RECORD
Week 1: 10-6 96 points
Week 2: 6-10 49 points
Week 3: 6-10 53 points
Week 4: 10-6 81 points
Week 5: 7-7 53 points
Week 6: 11-3 96 points
Week 7: 12-3 92 points
Week 8: 14-2 113 points
Week 9: 12-3 110 points
Week 10: 10-4 87 points
Week 11: 6-8 55 points
Week 12: 7-6 55 points
Week 13: 15-1 135 points
Week 14: 10-3 83 points
Week 15: 12-4 119 points
Week 16: 8-8 87 points
Week 17: 13-3 116 points
TOTAL RECORD
169-87 66% 1,480 points out of a total of 1950 75.9%
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