NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 17

by Mike Allen - 12/24/2024

Welcome to Christmas Week in the NFL, otherwise known as Week 17. We have football games on five days this week in 10 different time slots, including an all-AFC Christmas Day doubleheader. We're looking to improve on our total of 87 points from last week.

Confidence is high, with more teams showing who they are as we make our way down the home stretch of the 2024 NFL regular season.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 Points-Indianapolis Colts

We're all busy this holiday season, but the Indianapolis Colts' Jonathan Taylor has been putting in serious work the past few weeks, capped off by a 200-yard performance last week against the Titans.

Expect more of the same game plan from the Colts. Without one of the best nose tackles in the NFL, Dexter Lawrence, the Giants front is primarily composed of speed rushers specializing in going after the quarterback.

Indy will bust them up the gut, and regardless of how the game plays out, the Giants do not want to win. That could put them into a five or 6-way tie for the worst record in football.

15 Points-Buffalo Bills

The Bills were due for a soft start last week against the Pats, but they got through it. I'm a little concerned about their defense moving forward but don't expect another flat first half from the future MVP and company.

14 Points-Philadelphia Eagles

I bet against Dallas last week and paid for it, but even with Jalen Hurts still in concussion protocol, I like the week of prep to improve their offensive efficiency through a new game script. The Eagles are a better team with Hurts on the field. However, Kenny Pickett gives this team different tricks.

13 Points-Los Angeles Chargers

I love the Chargers here and was quite surprised to see their monyline at only (-210). They're traveling a long way on a short week, but the Pats just had their Super Bowl in the loss to Buffalo, and I think they'll be deflated.

12 Points-Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs have officially returned the Atlanta Falcons to the driver's seat in the NFC West. Look for this to be a letdown spot for the Panthers coming off the big win by a touchdown late in overtime to beat the Arizona Cardinals.

11 Points-Miami Dolphins

Miami's still playing hard; statistically, they're still in it, albeit at about 3.9%. Cleveland's Dorian Thompson Robinson didn't show me anything last week or any time during his brief career with the Browns.

10 Points-Los Angeles Rams

LA is finally playing up to their potential and doing it with consistency. They host the Cardinals this week, and the only reason I don't have this game higher up is because it's a division matchup. Arizona looks done, but you never know when Kyler Murray will crack a playbook.

9 Points-Seattle Seahawks

Speaking of teams who are checked out, the Bears don’t look like they want to be out there. Their coaches all know their jobs are likely toast at the end of the season, while Seattle’s Mike Macdonald is locked in on finishing his first year as a head coach on point.

The loss late to Minnesota and then playing on a short week is concerning, but Seattle still has a 25% chance at the postseason, and they'll compete hard.

8 Points-Detroit Lions

The Lions have to travel to San Francisco to play the Niners in what will be a Super Bowl for San Francisco. Just about every pass Jared Goff completed against Chicago on Sunday was over the middle, and his receivers got plenty of YAC.

I don't know if that will be as open against the Niners' linebacking crew, but take the Lions to get the job down like they usually do.

7 Points-Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are flying high this week. I wouldn't take them to cover this week against the Texans, but give me the better team to find a way to win.

6 Points-Kansas City Chiefs

This team has to protect Patrick Mahomes or whoever's at the quarterback position. As of late, the Chiefs' pass protection has been some of the worst we've seen out of any team in the league this year.

5 Points-Washington Commanders

I would worry about Washington here. Atlanta needs their win more, and you know the Commanders' emotions took a ride after that emotional win over the Eagles.

4 Points-Cincinnati Bengals

Maybe I should have Joe Burrow's Bengals higher up. They have been looking strong. However, their competition hasn't been much lately. Denver is dangerous and has more to play for, so be careful if you take Cincy to cover.

3 Points-New Orleans Saints

They're at home this week and were blown out 34-0 by the Pack last night. Spencer Rattler recovers, doing his best to secure a potential 2025 Week 1 starting job.

2 Points-Jacksonville Jaguars

The Tennessee defensive unit was outstanding all season, and even they've given up, allowing the Colts to score 38 and Taylor to rush for over 200 yards. Take Jacksonville to try to lose, but not.

1 Point-Green Bay Packers

Ultimately, we have the Packers here. I like the spot for them even though they'll have one less day of rest. It evens out when you think they only needed minimal emotion early on to beat the Saints while the Vikings are still coming down from one of the best finishes and passes we've seen all season in their win over the Seahawks.

SEASON RECORD

Week 1: 10-6 96 points

Week 2: 6-10 49 points

Week 3: 6-10 53 points

Week 4: 10-6 81 points

Week 5: 7-7 53 points

Week 6: 11-2 99 points

Week 7: 12-3 92 points

Week 8: 14-2 113 points

Week 9: 12-3 110 points

Week 10: 10-4 87 points

Week 11: 6-8 55 points

Week 12: 7-6 55 points

Week 13: 15-1 135 points

Week 14: 10-3 83 points

Week 15: 12-4 119 points

Week 16: 8-8 87 points

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Start:	December 25, 2024 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 17

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