NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 16

by Joey House - 12/18/2024

Week 15 is officially in the books, and Doc's NFL Confidence Pool Picks went a strong 12-4 and earned 119 points out of the possible 136. We have just three weeks of the season left. And with the upcoming holiday season, there are some interesting scheduling quirks. There are two games this Saturday, and the four teams involved in those contests will have a second consecutive week of short rest when they play on Christmas Day the following Wednesday. One of those teams is the Kansas City Chiefs, who are starting to rack up the injuries.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points— Green Bay over New Orleans (MNF): A couple of years ago, New Orleans won a game in Cleveland on Christmas Eve with a game-time temperature of 6 degrees. This game will almost certainly be colder, and Green Bay is 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games against New Orleans.

15 points— Buffalo over New England: In one of the beautiful scheduling quirks of the NFL, these two teams meet twice in the last three weeks of the season. The Pats are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games and 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in their last six matchups against their division rival Buffalo.

14 points— Cincinnati over Cleveland: Cincinnati comes into this game with the second-worst scoring defense at 27.6 ppg. Luckily for them, Cleveland has the third-lowest scoring offense (17.1 ppg) and is benching QB Jameis Winston for 2nd-year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has thrown for 1 TD and 7 INTs in his NFL career.

13 points— Detroit over Chicago: Chicago was officially knocked out of playoff contention last week after starting 4-2 on the season. They've lost eight straight games, and Detroit needs this victory to keep its hope of grabbing the Number One Seed in the NFC alive.

12 points— Philadelphia over Washington: Right now, Philly has the overall Number One seed in the NFC, but if they fall one spot, this could be a wildcard game. Playing in the nation's capital doesn't seem to bother the Eagles, as they are 6-1 SU in their last seven road games against the Commanders.

11 points— Tampa Bay over Dallas (SNF): Tampa Bay's only route into the playoffs this year is to win their division, and they currently have a one-game lead over Atlanta. Dallas is mathematically still alive but would need a Christmas miracle followed by a New Year's phenomenon to make the playoffs this year.

10 points— Baltimore over Pittsburgh (Sat): During the Steelers' impressive 7-3 SU run, the only team they beat with a winning record was the 18-16 home victory against Baltimore. The Ravens are 7-3 SU over their last ten games and play very well in December, going 6-1 SU in the last seven games in the last month of the calendar year.

9 points— LA Rams over NY Jets: This nightmare season is almost over for Jets' fans. Los Angeles is 8-3 SU in their last 11 matchups against the NY Jets. While the Rams' defense is a little porous (24.1 ppg- 24th in the NFL), the Jets' weak scoring offense of 20.2 ppg (22nd) won't pose much of a threat.

8 points— Arizona over Carolina: It looks like the Panthers have run out of steam after Dallas demolished them. The Cowboys almost had as many yards rushing (211 yards) as the Panthers in total offense (235 yards). Look for the Cardinals' ground game, 7th in the league at 141 ypg, to run through a disheartened Panther squad.

7 points— Jacksonville over Las Vegas: This game vividly showcases the divide between teams with heart and those who have packed it in for the season. Jacksonville only has one more victory than Las Vegas, but the Jags are 7-6-1 ATS compared to the 5-8-1 record for the Raiders. Jacksonville is 6-3 SU/ 8-2 ATS against Las Vegas in the last nine games.

6 points— Miami over San Francisco: Miami hurt their chances for the playoffs with last week's loss to Houston but still have an outside chance if they don't lose anymore. San Francisco's chances are even slimmer. The Niners have not faired well this year on the road, with a 2-4 SU/ 1-5 ATS away record.

5 points—Houston over Kansas City (Sat): Kansas City's franchise quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, suffered a high ankle sprain on Sunday and is questionable for the Chiefs' game against the Texans. Houston is second in the NFL in turnover differential with a +13 mark. If KC is forced to use the journeyman quarterback Carson Wentz, that could be a problem for the Chiefs.

4 points— Atlanta over NY Giants: This will be the first NFL start for Atlanta's Michael Penix, Jr. Unfortunately for the G-Men, their rush defense is next-to-last in the NFL with 143 ypg allowed. Bijan Robinson, the Falcons' workhorse running back, is averaging a little over 20 touches and 108 yards from scrimmage a game and should ease the burden on the rookie QB.

3 points— Denver over LA Chargers (TNF): This is a matchup between the best scoring defenses in the league, as both teams are number one in the NFL at 17.6 ppg allowed. Los Angeles is in a bit of a freefall, dropping three of their last four games. Denver, meanwhile, is 4-1 SU/ 5-0 ATS in their last five tilts.

2 points— Tennessee over Indianapolis: Indianapolis's QB Anthony Richardson has completed 47% of his passes with 7 TDs and 11 INTs, and the Colts have the 5th-worst passing attack. The Titans don't do much well except play pass defense, where they're 3rd in the NFL at 182 ypg. The Titans are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five trips to Naptown.

01 point— Seattle over Minnesota: Seattle's "12th Man" home-field advantage isn't as formidable as in past season, with the Seahawks 3-5 home record this year. Minnesota hasn't done well here in the past, but after Detroit's loss against Buffalo, the Vikings are suddenly playing for the NFC North and possibly home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

SEASON RECORD

Week 1: 10-6 96 points

Week 2: 6-10 49 points

Week 3: 6-10 53 points

Week 4: 10-6 81 points

Week 5: 7-7 53 points

Week 6: 11-2 99 points

Week 7: 12-3 92 points

Week 8: 14-2 113 points

Week 9: 12-3 110 points

Week 10: 10-4 87 points

Week 11: 6-8 55 points

Week 12: 7-6 55 points

Week 13: 15-1 135 points

Week 14: 10-3 83 points

Week 15: 12-4 119 points

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Start:	December 22, 2024 @ 4:05 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 16

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