NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14

by Joey House - 12/3/2024

Welcome to Doc's Sports weekly NFL Confidence Pool, where we pick the NFL team we believe will win and assign a point value based on the confidence of that pick. We almost brought out the brooms for the Thanksgiving holiday, as we were one point away from having a perfect score. New England gave up a touchdown with 12 seconds remaining and lost 25-24 to the Indianapolis Colts. That was the only blemish on a full 16-game slate. And because that was our lowest-valued game, we earned a near-perfect 135 points out of 136.

Handicapping games at the end of the season presents challenges different from those at the beginning or middle of a campaign. When it's clear that a team will not be playing in the postseason, it isn't easy to gauge that team's motivation. With playoff berths and home-field advantage up for grabs, you'll notice I'm using more "mental" aspects than stats because motivation takes on a new level of importance later in the season.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

13 points— Philadelphia over Carolina: Philly is riding high after their impressive win on the road at Baltimore. Carolina has been playing inspired ball, losing by a combined six points to Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Eagles are in the hunt for home-field advantage, so they will not get tripped up by the 30th-ranked offense (18.1 ppg) and dead-last defense (30.5 ppg).

12 points— Pittsburgh over Cleveland: I usually don't like using divisional rivals this high, but Cleveland will be coming off of a short week and on the road for the second week in a row. Throw in that they had their heart ripped out against Denver, and are 1-19 SU on the road in the last two decades against the Steelers, and I begin to rest easier.

11 points— Miami over NY Jets: After starting the season 2-1, the Jets have lost 8 of their last 9 games. Adding WR Davante Adams hasn't been the answer, and now they travel to Miami, where they are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games.

10 points— Tampa Bay over Las Vegas: Las Vegas hasn't won a game since the last week of September, losing 8 in a row. Despite their disappointing season so far, Tampa Bay is tied for first in the NFC South and can't afford to miss an easy layup like this game.

9 points— Minnesota over Atlanta: This should be an interesting game. Atlanta has the 4th-best passing attack (242 ypg) and ranked 22nd in pass defense (221 ypg). Minnesota is 10th in passing offense (231 ypg) and 28th in pass defense (243 ypg). The Falcons have struggled when flying north against the Vikings, going 4-12 SU in their last 16 games.

8 points— Seattle over Arizona: The Seahawks have taken the lead in the NFC West with a modest 3-game win streak, including a 16-6 win over the Cardinals two weeks ago. Seattle is 6-0 SU in their last 6 meetings with Arizona and an impressive 6-1 SU in their last 7 visits to their divisional rivals.

7 points— Kansas City over LA Chargers (SNF): The LA Chargers will take their top-rated scoring defense (15.7 ppg) into Arrowhead and try to stop their 6-game losing streak to Kansas City. The Chiefs have already clinched a playoff berth but will still be trying to secure home-field advantage. Kansas City is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home against the Chargers.

6 points— Cincinnati over Dallas (MNF): This game marks the fifth time this season that Dallas has been a home dog, a mark they haven't reached since 2015. The Bengals have the 5th-best scoring offense (27.9 ppg), and the Cowboys are tied with the Bengals for the 2nd-worst scoring defense (28.3 ppg). Luckily for Cincinnati, Dallas's weak offense (20.7 ppg, 21st in the NFL) won't be able to take advantage.

5 points— Chicago over San Francisco: Chicago hasn't won a game on the road this season, but they're going up against a San Francisco squad who is now starting their 3rd-string running back since Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are on the injured reserve. Chicago has struggled to score this season (20.1 ppg, 23rd in the league), but their defense is ranked ninth at 20.0 ppg. The Niners are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and are in grave danger of not making the playoffs.

4 points— Detroit over Green Bay (TNF): As good as Detroit has been this season, their division rival Green Bay is only two games behind. Unfortunately for the Packers, the Lions have the best scoring offense (31.9 ppg) and second-best scoring defense (16.9 ppg). This task of overcoming Detroit is even more difficult for Green Bay because they are 1-5 SU/ATS in their last 6 visits to the Motor City.

3 points— New Orleans over NY Giants: The Saints still have a faint glimmer of hope of making the playoffs, while the Giants, in addition to being officially eliminated from playoff contention, are winless at home this season. New York is dead last in scoring offense (15.3 ppg) and won't be able to take advantage of New Orleans defense that is 30th in yards allowed (385.1 ypg). The Saints are 6-3 SU in their last nine games where the temperature was below 40 degrees, which it most likely will be on Sunday.

2 points—Buffalo over LA Rams: This game is about matchups, and the Bills match up well against the Rams. Josh Allen gets a lot of attention, but the Bills' strength is their running game (127 ypg), and unfortunately for the Rams, that is the weakest part of their offense (144 ypg and 28th in the league). Buffalo is an offensive dynamo, second in scoring at 29.6 ppg, and should rack up plenty of yards and points against a weaker Rams' defense.

1 point— Tennessee over Jacksonville: While it may be difficult to believe, the Titans, with a 3-9 record, are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, while the Jaguars are officially done. Jacksonville hasn't won a road game in their last 9 attempts and is also 1-9 SU in their last 10 games in Tennessee.

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Start:	December 11, 2024 @ 12:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14

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