NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13

by Joey House - 11/27/2024

Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL Confidence Pool, where we pick the team we believe will win and assign a point value based on our confidence in those selections. Week 12 was turbulent; we went 7-6 for 55 total points. The holiday slate brings us a loaded 16-game schedule, allowing us ample opportunity to make up for any lost points in the past few weeks.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

16 points— Detroit over Chicago (Thur): The first game on Thanksgiving Day should give us a solid 16-point start. Detroit has the highest-scoring offense (32.7 ppg) and the second-best scoring defense (16.6 ppg). The Lions are also 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games in their division.

15 points— Kansas City over Las Vegas (Fri): The Raiders haven't won since Sept, but it seems much longer than that. It's tough to believe this team beat the Ravens in Baltimore. Kansas City is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against Las Vegas in Arrowhead Stadium.

14 points— Washington over Tennessee: The Commanders were a PAT away from another miraculous comeback. The Titans picked up their third win of the season last week and now travel to Washington to play Washington's 5th-best scoring offense (27.8 ppg).

13 points — Tampa Bay over Carolina: Carolina played their heart out against Kansas City last week, losing by a field goal as 11-point underdogs. Tampa Bay comes to town with a 7-1 SU record over the Panthers.

12 points— Buffalo over San Francisco (SNF): Even if Niners' QB Brock Purdy is healthy, it shouldn't matter as the Bills continue to find ways to win. Buffalo plays their best ball in December, winning their last ten straight games in the Yuletide month.

11 points— Denver over Cleveland (MNF): Cleveland is coming off their biggest win of the season, taking down divisional rival Pittsburgh at home. Traveling to Mile High Stadium is a different beast, where the Browns are 1-8 SU in their last nine visits.

10 points— Minnesota over Arizona: Arizona has the 6th-best rushing attack (140 ypg) in the league. Unfortunately for them, the Vikings have the top-rated run defense, allowing 74 ypg. The Cardinals are 4-13 in their last 17 meetings with the Vikings and are winless in ten visits to the state of many lakes.

9 points— Green Bay over Miami (Thur): The Dolphins have looked impressive, winning their last three games. However, the competition wasn't the stiffest. They are 1-5 SU/ATS in their last six games against the Packers.

8 points—Houston over Jacksonville: There has been a developing trend this season: whoever plays Detroit loses the following week. The Jaguars just gave up 52 points to the Lions, and Houston looks to rebound from their upset against Tennessee.

7 points— Dallas over NY Giants (Thur): Dallas has owned the G-Men as of late, going 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings. New York can only watch the man they cast aside, Philly RB Saquon Barkley, lead the league in rushing as they cut the man they chose over him, QB Daniel Jones.

6 points— LA Chargers over Atlanta: Atlanta has struggled against Los Angeles, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Chargers in Atlanta. The Chargers have the best scoring defense (15.9 ppg) in the NFL.

5 points— Pittsburgh over Cincinnati: Cincinnati has a potent offense, scoring 27.0 ppg. Their problem is they can't stop anyone, giving up 26.9 ppg. The Steelers boast the 4th-best scoring defense at 16.9 ppg. Pittsburgh has dominated this series recently, going 14-4 SU over the last nine seasons.

4 points— Seattle over NY Jets: Aaron Rodgers hasn't been the savior the NY Jets thought he would be, putting together a pedestrian season by his usual standards. Seattle has done quite well against the Jets, going 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five games against New York.

3 points— LA Rams over New Orleans: Although the Saints are on a modest 2-game winning streak, they have struggled against the Rams in recent meetings, going 3-6 SU in their last nine games. New Orleans is surrendering 256 ypg through the air, 30th in the league, which must make the Rams' 9th-best passing attack (236 ypg) giddy with anticipation.

2 points— Philadelphia over Baltimore: Philly has the top-ranked ground game (193 ypg), and Baltimore has the second (180 ypg). Both feature stout rush defenses, with the Ravens second in the NFL (77 ypg) and the Eagles 7th with 99 ypg. However, while their rush defense is superb, the Ravens' ability to stop the pass is horrendous, next to last in the league at 277 ypg.

1 point— New England over Indianapolis: Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against New England and 1-7 SU in their last eight trips to Foxboro. Colts QB Anthony Richardson played his college ball at Florida and with the blustery conditions forecasted for this weekend, his already poor accuracy will worsen.

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Start:	November 28, 2024 @ 4:30 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13

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