NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 12

by Joey House - 11/20/2024

Week 12 in the NFL Confidence is upon us, and it continues to be a wild ride. For the second week in a row, we had a blocked field goal win a high-value game. However, all good things must end, and Week 11 saw our string of dominance stop with a 6-8 record and 55 points. Like Ben Affleck told Jeremy Renner in "The Town," "I'm putting this whole town in my rearview." Let's dive into the action in Week 12.

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13 points— Detroit over Indianapolis: Detroit amassed 645 yards of total offense and scored 52 points last week against the worst defense in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Colts, their defense is not much better. They are ranked 28th in the league, allowing 374.5 yards per game.

12 points— Kansas City over Carolina: This game is one of the two double-digit spreads in this weekend's action. Kansas City is 5-2 SU in their last seven games against Carolina. The Panthers have the 3rd-worst offense (16.7 ppg) and the worst defense (31.0 ppg).

11 points— Washington over Dallas: This is the other double-digit spread so far this weekend. I gave Dallas too much credit last week, but it is clear this team has quit on head coach Mike McCarthy. The Commanders' 4th-highest scoring offense (28.0 ppg) should light up the Cowboys' 31st-ranked defense (29.3 ppg).

10 points— Miami over New England: New England's punchless offense, ranked 30th in yards/play (4.8), points per game (16.5), and last in passing yards/game (165.9 ypg), takes on an average Miami defensive unit giving up 22.5 ppg. The Pats are 1-7 SU/0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the Dolphins.

9 points— Houston over Tennessee: Tennessee's 2-8 record is terrible, but their 1-9 ATS is even more damning. The Texans are on the cusp of being an excellent team and have the 3rd-best defense in total yards a game (297.1 ypg). Houston is 8-2 ATS in its last ten meetings with Tennessee.

8 points— Pittsburgh over Cleveland (TNF): Maybe Cleveland's problems didn't all revolve around injured QB Deshaun Watson. Since QB Jameis Winston stepped in, the offense erupted for 29 points against Baltimore but has averaged 12 points per game in the next two games. The only reason this isn't more is because it's a divisional road game, and the Steelers are 1-4 SU in their last five trips to Cleveland but are 13-5-1 SU over the last 19 meetings.

7 points— Minnesota over Chicago: The Bears continue to find new ways to lose. Minnesota has the best rush defense in the league at 74 ypg. The Vikings love the "Windy City" as they are 4-0 SU/ATS in the last four games against Chicago on the road.

6 points—Denver over Las Vegas: Denver's rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, has been solid this season and looks to change the Broncos' horrible 2-8 SU/ATS record against their division rivals in Sin City. Luckily for Denver, Las Vegas is in a free-fall, losing six straight.

5 points— Tampa Bay over NY Giants: Tampa Bay can score against anybody, as evidenced by their 5th-best scoring offense at 27.9 ppg. However, they also have trouble stopping opposing teams from lighting up the scoreboard, giving up 26.6 ppg (27th). Luckily for the Buccaneers, the G-Men have the league's worst offense, putting up 15.6 ppg. New York has benched QB Daniel Jones in favor of the second-year Tommy DeVito.

4 points— Arizona over Seattle: Arizona is in 1st place in the NFC with a 6-4 record, with a ground game that churns up 149 ypg (5th). Seattle is in a 3-way tie for second at 5-5 and has the 2nd-best passing attack in the league, gaining 260 ypg. The Seahawks' ground defense, however, is lacking at 138 ypg. The Cardinals are on a 5-1 SU/ATS run over their last 6 games.

3 points— LA Chargers over Baltimore (MNF): A great matchup between the Chargers top defense (14.5 ppg) against the Ravens and their second-highest scoring offense (30.4 ppg). Baltimore's offensive attack is balanced, 2nd in rushing with 177.3 ypg and 3rd in the league in pass at 252.8. Their defense, though, is the Achilles Heel, giving up the most passing yards per game with 284 ypg and 9th-worst scoring defense with 24.6 ppg.

2 points— Green Bay over San Francisco— San Francisco, the reigning NFC champs, are in jeopardy of not making the playoffs, let alone enacting revenge for their overtime defeat. Both teams are average 25.0 ppg, but Green Bay has a slightly better defense, allowing 21.3 ppg to the Niners 22.2 ppg. Green Bay has made the "Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field" a veritable hell for San Francisco, going 12-3 in the last 15 games they hosted against the 49ers.

1 point— LA Rams over Philadelphia (SNF): Full disclosure: I'm a lifelong Eagles fan, so I HOPE I'm wrong about this pick. Philly is in the midst of a 6-game winning streak and has looked dominant at times. The Ram's offense has been inconsistent, but they have the firepower to go blow-for-blow with the Eagle's offense. Philadelphia has not faired well against the NFC West, going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as their western rivals. The Rams have taken to Sofi Stadium quite well, going 7-2 SU in their last 9 home games.

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Start:	December 22, 2024 @ 8:20 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 12

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