NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 10

by Joey House - 11/6/2024

Welcome to Week 10 of Doc's NFL Confidence Pool, where we pick straight-up winners in the NFL and assign points based on our confidence in those picks. We started shaky, losing our Thursday night game (again), but after that, it was smooth sailing. We closed out Week 9 with a 12-3 record, earning 110 points out of 120 possible. That brings the total in our four-week run to 49-10 (83.1%) and 414 points out of the possible 466 (88.8%). We have another big week on tap, so let's get down to it.

Doc's Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

14 points— Kansas City over Denver: Now that Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has another dangerous weapon besides TE Travis Kelce, the Chiefs will be a juggernaut. Denver is 1-16 SU in their last 17 against their divisional rival, including eight straight in Arrowhead.

13 points— Minnesota over Jacksonville: Jacksonville's defense is one of the worst in the league, 30th in points allowed (28.0 ppg), and next to last in passing yards per game (264.3 ypg). Vikings QB Sam Darnold found the fountain of youth, posting career highs in completion percentage (69.5%), yards per game (237.5 ypg), and touchdown percentage (7.6%).

12 points— LA Chargers over Tennessee: While the Titans lead the NFL in yards allowed per game with 269.1 ypg, that hasn't translated into points allowed, as they give up 26.6 ppg (27th). The Chargers, however, have the best scoring defense with 12.6 ppg surrendered. In their last eight visits to the "Sunshine State," Tennessee is 0-8 SU playing the Chargers.

11 points—Buffalo over Indianapolis: Indianapolis kept their game against Minnesota close by generating three turnovers. Buffalo has only turned over the ball four times this season, making it the second-best in the league. The Bills have done well against their AFC brethren, going 11-3 in their last 14 games against the AFC.

10 points— Baltimore over Cincinnati (TNF): Baltimore's offense continues to be lethal, leading the league in yards per game (445.9 ypg), rushing yards per game (191.1 ypg), passer rating at 120.7, and is second in the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 ppg. The Bengals are 1-5 SU in their last six visits to Baltimore.

9 points— Philadelphia over Dallas: Dallas is 0-3 SU/ATS this season at home, and it isn't getting better with QB Dak Prescott injured. Philadelphia seems to make every game close, but they are 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS in their last six games. After watching Eagles running back Saquon Barkley's mind-blowing play last Sunday, I realized that any team that has Superman on it will win.

8 points— Washington over Pittsburgh: Washington's offense has been impressive, scoring on 60.7% of their drives, which leads the NFL. Their 3rd-best rushing attack (163 ypg) will be tested against Pittsburgh's stingy rush defense, 4th in the league at 90 ypg. The Commanders have thrived as a favorite, going a perfect 5-0 SU in games they were expected to win.

7 points— Detroit over Houston (SNF): Even though Houston has outgained Detroit in total yards, the Lions still have the NFL's highest points scored per game, at 32.3 ppg, and Houston comes in at 22.3 ppg. These two teams have played only five times, with the Texans leading 4-1, with their last game being played during the Covid year. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.

6 points—Atlanta over New Orleans: It's hard to believe the Saints were undefeated with the highest-scoring offense after the season's first two weeks. Seven losses later, they lost their starting quarterback and lost to the Carolina Panthers last week, causing their coach to get fired. Atlanta is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six contests.

5 points— San Francisco over Tampa Bay: This would be a great matchup if Tampa Bay were fully healthy. The Bucs went to overtime against Kansas City before falling 30-Midnight on Monday Football. San Francisco comes to Tampa Bay with an offense that is second in the league in yards gained per game at 412.4 ypg. Tampa counters with the 2nd-worst defense in yards allowed at 386.7 ypg.

4 points— Arizona over NY Jets: The Jets stopped their 5-game losing streak last week with their win over Houston. Unfortunately for New York, now they hit the road, where they haven't been very successful lately, going 2-8 ATS in the last ten games outside of the Meadowlands. Arizona are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games. This is the time of year the Jets struggle, as they are 3-12 SU in their last 15 November contests.

3 points—New York Giants over Carolina (Germany Sunday Morning): The Germans hope this is their final punishment for starting two World Wars last century. NFL schedulers baffle me. If they are trying to spread the product globally, why promote two of the worst teams in the league? The Giants have the worst scoring offense in the NFL with 15.4 ppg. They face the Panthers' worst scoring defense, with 32.6 ppg.

2 points— Miami over LA Rams (MNF): The Rams passing attack is so strong that they can go without their top two targets for over half the year and still be ranked 9th in the league in yards per game (231 ypg). Unfortunately, the Dolphins have the 4th-best pass defense at 183 ypg. Miami is 12-2 in their lifetime against the Rams and whatever city they resided in then.

1 point— Chicago over New England: The Patriots quarterback Drake Maye looked like he was playing backyard football last week in the play that sent their game against Tennessee to overtime (where they eventually lost to the Titans). Now they face the Bears defense, with the 5th-best scoring defense at 18.5 ppg. Caleb Williams, Chicago's rookie quarterback, has shown remarkable improvement during the season, completing 63% of his passes for 1,035 yards, 7 TDs, and 1 INT over the last five games. Chicago is 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.

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Start:	December 22, 2024 @ 4:05 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 10

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