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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 1

by Joey House - 9/3/2024

NFL confidence pool picks Week 1 Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers

Welcome back to another season of Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool series, where we break down each game, select a winner for every contest, and assign a point value to each game based on our "confidence" levels (hence the name of the pool). These contests differ from other pools as we are only concerned about the straight-up (SU) winners, not the against-the-spread (ATS) winners.

It is also important to avoid confusing the confidence pool with the survivor pool, where you pick just one game a week but then can never use that team for the rest of the season. However, you can use our confidence article in conjunction with Doc's NFL Survivor Pool Picks article to help you prepare for your weekly survivor pool as well.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Picking Strategies

A little about my gambling philosophy and picking strategy: even though most people love to see the big underdog win the game outright, the truth is that in the NFL, it doesn't happen often. Last season saw games with spreads of two or more touchdowns nine times. The favorite was a perfect 9-0 SU (but only 3-6 ATS).

My research did reveal an interesting trend. However, favorites from 10-14 points fared much worse, going 15-10 SU and 11-13-1 ATS in the 25 games that met that criteria. So, I will be more willing to take a double-digit dog, up to two touchdowns, this season.

Without further ado, let's get to Week One's picks.

16 points- Cincinnati Bengals over New England Patriots: Two franchises headed in opposite directions. The "Evil Empire" of the Patriots has completely been destroyed, and Joe Cool of the Bengals kicks them while they're down.

15 points- San Francisco 49ers over New York Jets (MNF): The Jets open up on Monday Night Football for the second consecutive year. Last year, they lost All-Pro QB Aaron Rodgers for the season in the first drive but won the game. This season, Rodgers stays healthy, but the Niners start their run to the Super Bowl with an easy victory.

14 points- Seattle Seahawks over Denver Broncos: While the 2023 season has made me rethink my stance on rookie QBs, I won't start picking one in his NFL debut on the road in Seattle.

13 points- Philadelphia Eagles over Green Bay Packers (FNF): For those who don't recognize "FNF", it stands for Friday Night Football. This game is being played in Sal Paulo, Brazil. Jalen Hurts has a few new weapons to play with, as the Eagles added RB Saquon Barkley and WR Jahan Dotson. This Philly team is loaded and hungry after their late-season collapse last year.

12 points- Miami Dolphins over Jacksonville Jaguars: Surprisingly, these AFC Florida teams last played in 2021, when the Jaguars won, 23-20. Miami has Super Bowl aspirations this year, and Jacksonville's defense has regressed from its 2022 playoff team.

11 points- Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Commanders: Another rookie quarterback starting on the road against a playoff game-winning team from last season? Thank you, sir. May I have another?

10 points- Dallas Cowboys over Cleveland Browns: This is unchartered territory for the Cowboys, as the last time they were underdogs on the road in Cleveland (1988), none of their current players were even born. While Dallas didn't make many roster upgrades in the offseason, it did rank first in scoring offense and fifth in scoring defense last year.

9 points- LA Chargers over Las Vegas Raiders: Justin Herbert's precision passing will dissect the Raiders' defense. The Chargers' revamped offensive line will provide him with ample time. Home advantage and defensive strategy will stifle the Raiders, securing a victory.

8 points- Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo Bills: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray's agility exploits the Bills' defense, creating scoring opportunities. The Cardinals' revamped strategy controls the game tempo, limiting Bills QB Josh Allen's possessions. Allen starts to remember what life was like without Stephon Diggs.

7 points- New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers: I might choose differently if this game were in Carolina. Panther QB Bryce Young will win his first NFL road game this season after going 0-8 last year. It just won't be in the Superdome.

6 points- Tennessee Titans over Chicago Bears: Titans QB Will Levis already had WR DeAndre Hopkins to throw to. Adding Calvin Ridley to that mix is going to produce points. Bears start rookie QB Caleb Williams at home.

5 points- Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games hosting the Texans, and most of those squads were much better than the current Indy team. The Colts are starting second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, who saw limited action last year as a rookie.

4 points- NY Giants over Minnesota Vikings: For some bizarre reason, when the Giants are home dogs from 1-5 points (they're currently a 1.5-point home dog), they are 6-3-1 SU. Minnesota's QB is Sam Darnold, and I have just a little less faith in him than I do in Giants QB Daniel Jones.

3 points- LA Rams over Detroit Lions: Rams QB Matthew Stafford has amazing chemistry with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I expect Lions head coach Dan Campbell to screw the game up.

2 points- Baltimore Ravens over Kansas City Chiefs: The Ravens had the best regular season record last year at 13-4. Adding RB Derrick Henry will take a ton of pressure off QB Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs start worrying about their regular season record in late October.

1 point- Pittsburgh Steelers over Atlanta Falcons: I think Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is a solid quarterback. His problem down in the ATL will be a lack of quality targets to throw to. These games are essential to the Steelers because few winnable ones are on the schedule.

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