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2023 NFC South Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Analysis

by Joey House - 7/31/2023

NFC South predictions Derek Carr New Orleans Saints

While the NFC South may have been the weakest division in football (no team finished above .500), it was the tightest division in the NFL as well, with only one game separating all four teams. Some huge personnel changes took place in the off-season, and it's likely to be another congested standings for the denizens of the NFC South. Doc’s has our fingers on the pulse of the NFC South and will be here all year to guide you towards winners.

New Orleans Saints

NFC South: +120

NFC Conference: +1300

Super Bowl: +3500

Win Totals (O/U): 9.5

2022: 7-10 SU, 7-10 ATS, 6-11 O/U

Life post-Drew Brees has not been great for the New Orleans Saints. They won double-digit games and made the playoffs in his last four seasons with the Saints. They're hoping the signing of long-time Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr will turn things around. There are some talented weapons at Carr's disposal, as evidenced by a team that passed for 3,692 yards with Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston as the primary signal callers. Since the venerable QB Brees retired in 2021, the Saints have struggled ATS as underdogs, going 7-13. They have, however, been successful as favorites, going 9-5. If that second trend holds to form, they stand a great chance of going over their win total, as they look to be favorites in upwards of 11 games.

Atlanta Falcons

NFC South: +215

NFC Conference: +3000

Super Bowl: +7000

Win Totals (O/U): 8.5

2022: 7-10 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 7-10 O/U

The Falcons started off ATS darlings in 2022, going 6-0 ATS. They turned into a horrible bet for the remaining 11 games, going 3-8 ATS over that period. They transitioned from QB Marcus Mariota to second-year QB Desmond Ridder with four games remaining, and Atlanta ended on a two-game winning streak. Ridder's learning curve will be eased by a backfield that ran for 2,718 yards, the 3rd-most in the NFL. They bolstered that backfield with 1st-round draft pick Bijan Robinson out of Texas. Falcons backers loved when Atlanta played in the conference last year, as they sported a sterling 8-4 ATS mark. The 23rd-ranked scoring defense of the Falcons received massive changes, from the switch of defensive coordinators to the swapping of six defensive players. Atlanta's roster across the board is perhaps the most complete team in the NFC South. Ridder was a winner in college, leading the Cincinnati Bearcats to the first College Football Playoff appearance by a non-Power 5 team. At +215, they represent excellent value to win the NFC South

Carolina Panthers

NFC South: +215

NFC Conference: +4000

Super Bowl: +10000

Win Totals (O/U): 7.5

2022: 7-10 SU, 9-8-0 ATS, 8-9 O/U

After a 1-4 start to the season, Carolina fired head coach Matt Rhule, and interim Steve Wilks went 6-6 over the last 12 games. They elected to not keep him but instead brought in Frank Reich. They made some major upgrades to the offense, bringing in ex-Eagles RB Miles Sanders, ex-Viking WR Adam Thielen, and ex-Bengal TE Hayden Hurst. The biggest move, however, was drafting former Alabama QB Bryce Young. Young is lucky enough to be paired up with Reich, who was a 13-year veteran QB before coming as coach. History is not on Young's side, however, as since 2000, top-5 QBs that started eight games or more only won 39% of their games, which would be 6.6 wins. Another disturbing Panthers trend was the fact they lost the last nine games that they were favored in. Conversely, they were 9-4 ATS as underdogs and 5-1 ATS both as home dogs and in divisional games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC South: +850

NFC Conference: +4000

Super Bowl: +150000

Win Totals (O/U): 7.5

2022: 8-9 SU, 4-12-1 ATS, 6-11 O/U

When Tampa Bay lost to Dallas in the Wild-Card weekend, that officially ended the illustrious career of Tom Brady. Even in his seemingly 50th year, Brady still threw for 4,694 yards, second in the NFL. The Bucs signed 5-year starting QB Baker Mayfield. There was a lot of turnover of the roster, but Mayfield will retain the two most dangerous receiving weapons, WR Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay elected to part ways with veteran OC Byron Leftwich and brought in first-time OC Dave Canales. The Buccaneers' ATS record of 4-12-1 was the worst of any divisional winner. The defensive secondary allowed 29 passing TDs, which was 28th in the NFL witnessed the departure of three of its players while bringing in Safety Ryan Neal from Seattle. This could be an epically bad year for Tampa Bay fans, because winning the division last year did them no favors. And with a porous defense and weak ground game, too much may be asked of Baker Mayfield. I think they're lucky if they win six games this year and see their season total as going well under the total.

Best Bets and NFC South Predictions

Best Bets

New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins

Atlanta Falcons over 8.5 wins

Carolina Panthers under 7.5 wins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 6.5 wins

Divisional Winner

Atlanta Falcons +215 (NFC South)

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