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2023 NFC North Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Analysis

by Joey House - 7/26/2023

NFC North predictions Jared Goff Detroit Lions

Last season, the Minnesota Vikings ran away with the NFC North division, posting a mark of 13-4, four full games ahead of the Detroit Lions. With some massive personnel changes on the roster, the division is wide open in 2023… and who wins is anybody's guess. Doc's Sports gives you a quick rundown with NFC North predictions to get you up-to-speed for the start of training camp.

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Detroit Lions: +145 (NFC North)/+1000 (NFC)/+2500 (SB)

Win Totals (O/U): 9.5 2022: 9-8 SU, 12-5 ATS, 10-7 O/U

Last year, Detroit backers celebrated their team's impressive 70.6% ATS cover rate, ranking third in the league. Narrowly missing the playoffs, Lions fans were disappointed. Quarterback Jared Goff experienced a remarkable turnaround, throwing for 4,438 yards and averaging 261.1 yards per game, a significant increase from the previous season. The offense saw changes with the departure of running backs D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, replaced by David Montgomery. Wide receiver D.J. Chark also left, but Amon-Ra St. Brown provides reassurance for Goff. The Lions' lackluster defense played a major role in their 9-8 win-loss record and 10-7 over/under record, ranking last in total yards allowed (392.4 YPG), 30th in passing yards allowed (245.8 YPG), and 29th in rushing yards allowed (146.5 YPG). To address this, the team signed three free agents for their struggling secondary. Positive trends include a perfect 6-0 ATS division record and a strong 9-3 conference performance. After a loss, they went 4-4 ATS. Despite losing 1,500 rushing yards, the Lions only replaced 800. However, if their promising new defense lives up to expectations, this may not be a significant concern. With attractive preseason division futures odds at +145, the Lions are expected to comfortably surpass their win total and are the best bet to bring home the division crown.

Green Bay Packers: +475 (NFC North)/+3000 (NFC)/+6600 (SB)

Win Totals (O/U): 7.5 2022: 8-9 SU, 8-9 ATS, 8-9 O/U

For the first time since 1991, the starting QB for Green Bay's season opener will be someone other than Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. In those 31 years, the Packers missed the playoffs only nine times and won two Super Bowls. The transition for this season was eerily reminiscent of the switch from Favre to Rodgers, even down to the destination of the outgoing QB (New York Jets). It remains to be seen if the QB play under first-year starter Jordan Love will be as stellar as it was under Favre and Rodgers. However, Love is at even more of a disadvantage as he lost WRs Allen Lazard and Randal Cobb and TEs Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis. Bettors can't be too disappointed to see Rodgers go, as the Pack went 4-7 ATS when they were favored last year. Early reports out of the Packers locker room indicate the team is responding well to Love's guidance. Unfortunately, shaky QB play was not the only issue that plagued Green Bay last year. It would take a Herculean effort for Love to eclipse the 7.5 win total, and I just don't see it.

Minnesota Vikings: +300 (NFC North)/+1800 (NFC)/+4000 (SB)

Win Totals (O/U): 8.5 2022: 13-4 SU, 7-9-1 ATS, 11-6 O/U

Easily one of the most surprising teams last year with their scintillating 13-4 regular season SU record, the Vikings were considered by many to be a "fraud". How else can you explain a team that was an amazing 11-0 in one-score games but had a -3 point differential? They're going to need new defensive coordinator Brian Flores to address these issues, as the Vikings lost their leading tackler and one of their co-leaders in interceptions. In the past two seasons, Minnesota's games have gone over more than any other in the NFL (22-12), which was good enough for a 64.7% OVER percentage. Losing the uber-reliable Adam Thielen may put a slight damper on an offense that ranked 8th in PPG with 24.9. Vikings fans probably wish Minny could flip over to the AFC, ala Seattle, as their ATS record in nonconference games since 2021 is 7-3, while laboring in the NFC with a mark of 9-15-1 ATS. Minnesota got zero favors in the scheduling department because of their lofty finish last season, and I don't see them going over .500 for the entire season.

Chicago Bears: +400 (NFC North)/+3000 (NFC)/+6600 (SB)

Win Totals (O/U): 7.5 2022: 3-14 SU, 5-11-1 ATS, 10-7 O/U

The Justin Fields Era in Chicago has been exciting but ultimately wildly unsuccessful, going 9-25 SU and 11-22-1 ATS over the past two seasons. What's crazy is at one point last year, Chicago was 3-4, before losing 10 straight. Head coach Matt Eberflus's seat may not be "hot" but I guarantee it's warm. The Bears are currently favored in the first two games against the two Bays, Green and Tampa. If the defense, which was last in the NFL in 2022 with 27.2 PPG allowed, doesn't improve, and they lose those games they were favored, the cry to out Eberflus is going to grow deafening. The front office made a serious effort to upgrade the offensive weapons at the QB's disposal by bringing in WR DJ Moore from Carolina and RB D'Onta Foreman from Atlanta. The hope with these moves is that Fields' passing yards (2,242) rise drastically while his rushing yards (1,143) are reduced proportionally. With a defense that struggles to stop air and half-decent offense, it's no great mystery that the Bears have some strong OVER trends, such as a perfect 5-0 OVER nonconference games and a solid 9-4 OVER mark after their many losses. I think that Fields continues to evolve as a passer and with the weaknesses in the NFC North, I am calling for the Bears to go over the .500 mark. Take the over 7.5 total wins.

Conclusion and NFC North Predictions

The NFC North is set for an intriguing season, with each team facing its unique challenges and opportunities. Expectations are high for the Detroit Lions with a revitalized defense and Jared Goff's improved performance, and they should meet or exceed them, positioning them as the favorites in the division. The Green Bay Packers, transitioning post-Rodgers, could struggle with Jordan Love's first-year challenges as a starter. The Minnesota Vikings' impressive 2022 record might not translate to a similar 2023 campaign due to defensive concerns and the loss of key players. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears, led by QB Justin Fields and strengthened by offensive additions, may surprise people with a winning record, though their defense remains a question mark. What promises to make the NFC North such an interesting division to follow is the question marks that surround each organization.

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