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2024-25 New York Islanders Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/18/2024

New York Islanders predictions Ilya Sorokin

The New York Islanders snuck into the final guaranteed spot of the Metro Division last season, as they finished with 94 points. Their 29 regulation wins was the lowest by any team in the guaranteed spots in the league. The Isles were also the only team in a guaranteed spot to have a negative goal differential on the season (-17) and one of just two playoff teams to carry a negative goal differential. Nonetheless, they did what they needed to do to secure their spot in the playoffs, though it was short lived. They were eliminated in five games by the Carolina Hurricanes, who completely dominated them.

The Isles did not reach the playoffs because of their offense. They finished 22nd in the league with a 2.99 GF/G average, while their special teams didn’t play any better as they finished with a 20.3% PP% and a league worst 71.5% PK%. Mathew Barzal led the team with 80 points despite carrying a -4 +/- rating. Blueliner Noah Dobson finished with 70 points, leading the team with 60 assists, while center Brock Nelson led the team with 34 goals and finished third on the roster with 69 points. Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Kyle Palmieri all recorded 30 or more goals last season, while Barzal and Anders Lee reached the 20-goal mark. Blueliner Alexander Romanov finished in the Top 25 of the NHL with a +/- rating of +23.

Their goaltending was ok last season as they ranked in the middle of the league, allowing 3.15 GA/G. However, their .911 SV% was seventh best in the NHL. New York just couldn’t catch a break as they had the fourth most shots against them last season. Ilya Sorokin was good in his 56 games, as he went 25-19-2 allowing 3.01 GA/G while recording a .909 SV%. His backup, Semyon Varlamov, was incredible, as he allowed just 2.60 GA/G on a .918 SV% in 28 games.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the New York Islanders in 2024-25:

New York Islanders Key Additions/Losses

The Isles have remained intact from last season with a few minor changes. Blueliners Sebastian Aho (nine points) and Robert Bortuzzo (23 games) are gone, along with Cal Clutterbuck (19 points).

The biggest move of the offseason was the signing of forward Anthony Duclair, who recorded 42 points (73 games) last season for the Lightning and Sharks. Duclair should be an immediate boost to the top line with his new running mates in Horvat and Barzal. The Islanders also retained Mike Reilly, who had 24 points in 61 games last season for New York.

New York Islanders X-Factors

Duclair’s Boost- The offense needed help, and Anthony Duclair was the lone answer for the Islanders front office. Duclair rounds out a solid top line for New York, and his speed should compliment Barzal’s tremendously. After ranking in the bottom half of the league in goals last season, New York needs Duclair to spark the offense.

Deadline- Not only do they need Duclair to be solid, but this Trade Deadline feels like it could be a huge factor in determining the direction of this Isles team. They should be in the thick of the postseason conversations. However, in order for them to secure their spot, boosting the offense may be necessary. Look for the Islanders to make a couple of key moves if they are in contention and boost their way into the guaranteed spot again.

New York Islanders Goalie Outlook

Ilya Sorokin is one of the better goalies in the NHL, and having him in the crease provides a huge safety net for a team that has struggled offensively. Though Sorokin allowed 3.01 GA/G last year, he allowed just 2.30 GA/G in his previous three years in the league to go along with a career SV% of .919. He is an elite netminder. And if he can improve on last year’s numbers, this Islanders team will be solid once again. His backup, Semyon Varlamov, had solid numbers and will be asked to repeat that again this season in his limited playing time.

Grade: A-

New York Islanders Key Schedule Stretch

October 30th-November 21st: The Isles spend nearly a month on the road during this stretch. They have 11 games, nine of which are away from home. The stretch begins with three straight road games against Columbus, Buffalo, and the Rangers. They return home to face Pittsburgh, then head to Ottawa, and return home against New Jersey. After their game against the Devils, they are on the road for five straight games, four on the West Coast. They play Edmonton, Vancouver, Seattle, Calgary, and Detroit during the five-game road trip. Their easier games are on the road against Columbus and Seattle, but other than that the stretch is an absolute gauntlet.

New York Islanders Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +4400

Conference Winner: +2000

Division Winner: +900

To Make the Playoffs- Yes: +102

Vezina Trophy- Ilya Sorokin: +900

Hart Trophy Mathew Barzal: +15000

New York Islanders Predictions

Last season, the Isles finished with 94 points. This year’s Team Point Total is set at 91.5. I do not see how they got any worse, making that fact alone enough to take the over on the point total. Not only did they avoid regressing, but they also got better. Duclair does add a boost to the offense, and the numbers indicate Ilya Sorokin can and will get better than last year’s performance. I really like the over here and I think this team will reach the playoffs again and be a tougher out than last season.

Over 91.5 Team Total Points

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