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2024 New Orleans Saints Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/30/2024

New Orleans Saints predictions Derek Carr

Despite having the third best point differential in the NFC, the 9-8 New Orleans Saints missed out on the playoffs thanks to Tampa Bay holding the tiebreaker. Seven of the eight Saints losses were by one possession. And the one that wasn’t was a nine-point road loss. This team just did not have luck on their side last season.

Derek Carr did have some success leading this offense last season. He finished with 3,878 yards on the year with 25 touchdowns, and both marks were good for Top 13 finishes in the league. He was also one of just three quarterbacks who threw for 25 or more touchdowns and single digit interceptions -- the other two were Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. The Saints run game was an interesting group, as they had three guys record 300 or more yards on the ground. Alvin Kamara led the group with 694 yards and five touchdowns, while Taysom Hill ran for 401 yards and four touchdowns. Jamaal Williams found the endzone once while recording 306 yards. Chris Olave proved to be Carr’s favorite target last season, as he recorded 1,123 yards and five touchdowns. Olave and Kamara were the only two to record more than 50 receptions. Rashid Shaheed tied Olave with five receiving touchdowns while averaging 15.6 yards per reception.

The defense ranked inside the Top 10 in passing defense and PPG allowed. The big trouble was they could not stop the run. Opponents rushed for an average of 119.9 YPG against New Orleans, which ranked 22nd in the NFL. Linebacker Demario Davis was the lone Saints defender to record more than 100 tackles, leading the team with 121. Carl Granderson led the team with 8.5 sacks and 14 TFLs. Davis was the only other member of the team to record double digit TFLs with 12. Cornerbacks Paulson Adebo, Alontae Taylor, and Isaac Yiadom were lock down defenders as they all recorded 14 or more PDs (18, 14, 14 respectively). Adebo’s 18 deflections were the third most in the NFL, with Taylor and Yiadom finishing in the Top 10. Adebo and Tyrann Mathieu were tied for the team lead with four interceptions.

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New Orleans Saints Key Additions/Losses

The Saints lost a few rotation guys on defense as Malcolm Roach, Zack Baun, and Isaac Yiadom are now in a different uniform. Backup quarterback Jameis Winston has also left, making Carr’s health this season imperative if they wish to make a playoff run.

The additions were not entirely impactful, but they did fill holes. They brought in wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr., who recorded 296 yards and three touchdowns with Miami last season. They also brought in former top prospect Chase Young in hopes he can take the defensive line to the next level. Linebacker Willie Gay Jr. should help improve the run defense as well.  

New Orleans Saints New Kids on the Block

New Orleans used their top picksin the draft effectively and they should have two guys who make an impact right away. They used their first-round pick on offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga, who should quickly become Carr’s best friend, as Fuaga allowed just one sack throughout his college career. Their second-round pick might be even better. The Saints used their second-round pick on Kool-Aid McKinstry. He will form an incredible trio with Adebo and Marshon Lattimore (if he can stay healthy). The Saints did draft Spencer Rattler, who improved his stock after transferring to South Carolina who could develop nicely in the QB2 role.

New Orleans Saints X-Factors

Health- As mentioned, with the loss of Winston, and the unknown reliability of Rattler filling in as backup, the Saints success heavily relies on Carr staying healthy this season. Marshon Lattimore missed a significant amount of time last season with an injury, while Michael Thomas has failed to stay healthy his entire career. If Lattimore and Thomas can see significant time on the field, this Saints team will be on a higher level than a season ago and could win the NFC South. However, this team is also an injury or two away from a disastrous season.

New Orleans Saints Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +10000

NFC Champion: +4000

NFC South Winner: +380

To Make Playoffs: +184

NFL MVP- Derek Carr: +15000

New Orleans Saints Schedule Breakdown

Predicted Win Total: 7.5 Games

It is very possible this team heads into Week 6 with a 1-5 record, and it is completely reasonable to see them heading into Week 6 with only two wins. Week 6 through Week 10 will be the deciding point in the Saints season, and their performance during this stretch could determine their fate as a playoff team. That stretch includes home games against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Denver and two road games at Carolina and at the Chargers. The games against Tampa Bay and Atlanta could be considered toss up games. However, even with a 1-1 record in those games, they could head into Week 11 only needing three more wins to eclipse their win total. Out of the remaining seven games, I see two wins for the Saints with three other games falling into the toss up category. The Saints will benefit from a very winnable home schedule and will need to steal only one or two road games this season to give Atlanta a run for the NFC South title, a race that was been the difference in making or missing the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints Predictions

I am high on the Saints this season. The defense as a whole replaced what it lost in free agency, and the secondary may be better with McKinstry in the mix. Carr has weapons all around him, and a full season of Kamara could boost this offense. The Saints will win at least eight games and could very well be the team to keep the Falcons out of the playoffs again this year. McKinstry is also a dark horse candidate for AP Defensive Rookie of the Year and is currently sitting at +4000 odds to be the winner.

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