Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2024-25 New Orleans Pelicans Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/12/2024

New Orleans Pelicans predictions Zion Williamson

The New Orleans Pelicans have been on the brink of becoming a playoff contender, but they just haven’t been able to put it all together yet. They’ve won only a single playoff series in the last 15 years and were promptly swept by the Thunder in last year’s first round. The front office made a variety of changes heading into this season. Holwever, were they the right moves to get the Pelicans over the line in the playoffs?

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

New Orleans Pelicans Offseason Recap

The Pelicans needed to make some offseason moves after getting dominated by a team of rookies in the playoffs last year, and the front office did not hesitate to make some big splashes. New Orleans traded away starter Jonas Valaciunas and refreshed their bench by shipping out Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr. and Naji Marshall. These changes were made to bring in Dejounte Murray from the Atlanta Hawks. 

Valanciunas is the most impactful loss, as he put in good minutes for the Pelicans, led the team in rebounds, and started all 82 games last season. The lack of his presence will be felt in the paint, but it was clear Valanciunas is not contributing enough offensively to keep his spot on the roster. The losses of Daniels, Nance Jr. and Marshall may not seem too relevant, but it will require the Pelicans to replace their minutes. The trio played between 19 and 22 minutes per game, respectively, last season. 

The arrival of DeJounte Murray dispels any of the aforementioned concerns. Murray instantly elevates the Pelicans backcourt to a level not seen before in New Orleans. He was incredible during his time with the Spurs but struggled to find the same consistency playing alongside Trae Young in Atlanta. His new backcourt partner CJ McCollum will not demand the ball like Young did and could allow Murray to reach his full potential. He saw all his major offensive numbers dip in his stint with the Hawks, but this is a much better fit for his playstyle. Murray will be able to bring the ball up the court and will look to replicate his 9.2 assists per game during his final season with the lowly Spurs. 

New Orleans Pelicans Season Expectations

New Orleans have had their season derailed by injuries since drafting Zion Williamson in 2019 but had no excuses last year after he played 70 regular season games. However, his health is still a serious concern, as he played just 114 games in the four seasons prior. All the eyes get put on the massive Williamson, but the real man their season hinges on is Brandon Ingram. 

Ingram scored only 20.8 PPG last season, by far his lowest total in the last 6 years. While his overall splits remained similar, Ingram was far less willing to take shots as the shot clock wound down last year. Instead, he looked to dish the responsibility off rather than stepping up when it mattered most. The presence of a healthy Williamson is partly to blame, but Ingram will need to demand his share of the ball even more with a volume shooter like Murray in the mix. The emergence of Herbert Jones could also play a big role, as he will be expected to fill in for the departed Valanciunas all season long. 

New Orleans Pelicans Schedule Breakdown

The Pelicans have a very manageable start to the year. Their first three games are against the Bulls, then a pair against the Trail Blazers. A new-look Pelicans team will be able to benefit from this soft start to the year. New Orleans will also get to spend the holiday at home, as their last road game of 2023 is on December 19th. 

New Orleans Pelicans Odds

The Pelicans have won only two playoff series in franchise history and haven’t done so since 2018. While they are favored to make the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons, they are far from a guarantee at -180 odds. Their win total is at 46.5 wins, something they have only done once in the last 6 years. There is no debating Murray makes the Pelicans a better team, but expecting him to make a smooth transition after what we saw in Atlanta may be too tall a task. Additionally, if Zion Williamson goes down with injury, the Pelicans will be very shorthanded at the 4 and 5 positions. If the Pelicans do make the playoffs, they are +4000 to win the NBA championship, which is tied for the eighth best odds in the Western Conference. 

In the NBA Cup, the Pelicans find themselves in an incredibly difficult West Group C. They are +350 to top a group featuring the Nuggets, Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Warriors. Any of those five teams could easily advance into the knockout stages. The +3000 odds of an NBA Cup victory for New Orleans don’t offer enough upside considering the uphill battle they have to advance from the group. 

2024-25 New Orleans Pelicans Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Pelicans have been building up expectations each offseason just to consistently fall short. Even with Williamson pulling off a miracle by staying healthy last season, the Pelicans still only won 49 games. Their win total at 46.5 gives them a little bit too much credit, as any Williamson injury would shatter their fragile frontcourt. The loss of Valanciunas will put more defensive and rebounding responsibilities on the shoulders of Williamson, and I just don’t see the Pelicans surpassing expectations this season, Dejounte Murray took several months to get used to his new role with the Hawks and will have a similar adjustment period for the Pelicans. Not only do I like the Under 46.5 wins prop, but the Pelicans to miss the playoffs at +145 odds is worth a look too. They look destined for a 9th-10th place finish  and will face an uphill play-in tournament battle to qualify. 

Pick: New Orleans Pelicans Under 46.5 Wins

Top Pick: New Orleans Pelicans to Miss the Playoffs +145

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NBA Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers