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2023 New England Patriots Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/2/2023

New England Patriots predictions Mac Jones

Human existence is a tale of creation and destruction.

Things built. Things destroyed. And on and on into infinity.

The New England Patriots Dynasty of the early 21st century was one of the greatest that football has ever seen.

Yet right now, the same people that marveled at the overwhelming accomplishments of Bill Belichick and the Patriots are reveling in his demise and calling for his head.

I’m not here to defend Belichick. I couldn’t care less that human black hole. What I do know, though, is that Belichick is one of the greatest head coaches in North American professional sports history. And I’m not in a hurry to bet against him.

Maybe it is muscle memory from years of cleaning up behind Brady, Belichick, and the Pats. Regardless, I’m not in a hurry to pile on the bandwagon predicting doom and depression for the Patriots and their backers.

Run the ball. Play great defense. Don’t turn it over, and capitalize on your opponents’ mistakes. That has been a recipe for football success since the game was invented.

And few have been better at executing it than Belichick-led teams.

No, the Patriots aren’t a Super Bowl contender anymore. No team without a top tier quarterback is.

That doesn’t mean that there isn’t money to be made betting on (or against) this squad, though, and it doesn’t mean that Belichick and Co. won’t be a major player in who wins one of the best divisions in football.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2023 OFFENSE

All of Belichick’s flaws and deficiencies – his stubbornness, his resistance to change, his interpersonal weakness – were on display last season with his handling of the Patriots offense.

The Matt Patricia Experiment was a complete and comical failure. Anyone with a functioning brain knew that would be the case, because just about everything Patricia has ever done in football has been a failure. But Belichick entrusted the attack to Patricia and acted as if the disjointed results were a surprise.

Bill O’Brien has been brought in to stabilize a group that hasn’t finished higher than No. 15 in total offense each of the last four seasons (including the last year with Brady at the helm).

O’Brien is being hailed as an offensive savior simply because he’s not Patricia. However, O’Brien’s offensive coaching achievements are spotty at best.

Re-establishing Mac Jones as the Patriots’ quarterback is priority No. 1. Jones had a major sophomore slump last season. His regression opened the door for Bailey Zappe to throw some doubt into the quarterback hierarchy.

Jones should have a sneaky-good compliment of receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a playmaker, when healthy. I think that DeVante Parker is vastly underrated and was underused in Miami. The same could be said for fellow former-Dolphin Mike Gesicki.

The offensive line is solid but not spectacular. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to carry the load. New England better pray for good health, though, because the options behind him are depressing.

New England was dead last in the league in red zone efficiency. Improving in that critical area has to be a top priority.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2023 DEFENSE

This remains the side of the football where Billy’s bread is buttered.

New England’s defense actually backslid last year. It says something about how high the bar is set when a year at No. 11 in points allowed and No. 8 in total defense is considered a “down” season.

The Patriots have been in the Top 10 in points allowed in 17 of 19 years.

There is no reason to expect a drop-off this season. In fact, if New England’s offense does a better job of holding onto the ball (they were No. 26 in time of possession), then the defense should make the small skip back into the Top 10.

The defensive line is thick and powerful, with Matt Judon (15.5 sacks) the linchpin. Backup Christian Barmore could be in line for a breakout, and rookie Keion White has elite athleticism.

New England’s back seven lacks the high-level Pro Bowl talent that most Belichick defenses have relied on. Their depth is envious, though. And when guys like Raekwon McMillan, Josh Uche, Jabrill Peppers, and Jalen Mills are coming off the bench, you know that you have an expansive roster.

The Patriots scored seven touchdowns, intercepted 19 throws and registered 41 sacks last season. They could be even better this year.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2023 SCHEDULE

There is no getting around it: the Patriots have one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.

The AFC East is the second-best division in football and has no weak spots. The NFC East has two of the best teams in its conference, and the AFC West is nothing to sneeze at.

In fact, New England’s easiest game and only layup, against Indianapolis, still requires a trip to Germany.

Week 1: 9/10 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 PM, CBS

Week 2: 9/17 vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM, NBC

Week 3: 9/24 at New York Jets, 1 PM, CBS

Week 4: 10/1 at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 PM, FOX

Week 5: 10/8 vs. New Orleans Saints, 1 PM, CBS

Week 6: 10/15 at Las Vegas Raiders, 4 PM, CBS

Week 7: 10/22 vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 PM, CBS

Week 8: 10/29 at Miami Dolphins, 1 PM, CBS

Week 9: 11/5 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM, FOX

Week 10: 11/12 vs. Indianapolis Colts (Germany), 9:30 AM, NFL Network

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: 11/26 at New York Giants, 1 PM, FOX

Week 13: 12/3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1 PM, CBS

Week 14: 12/7 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday), 8:15 PM, Amazon

Week 15: 12/18 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 16: 12/24 at Denver Broncos, 8:15 PM, NFL Network

Week 17: 12/31 at Buffalo Bills, 1 PM, CBS

Week 18: TBD, vs. New York Jets, TBD, TBD

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

If we take all the emotion and the noise out of it, and just look at who the Patriots are, you’ll see a solid, but not spectacular, squad.

They have the foundation of a Top 10 defense. They will have a focus on running the ball. They possess a quarterback that isn’t prone to turnovers. They have a veteran receiving corps and solid special teams.

They don’t do anything great. They also don’t have any glaring weakness.

Now, New England’s problem is one of relativity. If they were in the NFC South this year, they would likely be the favorites to win it. If they were in the AFC South, they would win 10+ games.

Unfortunately for the Pats, they are in the loaded AFC East. And they arguably enter the season as the weakest of the four teams in that group.

The Patriots haven’t had back-to-back losing seasons since they were the laughingstock of the NFL back in the early 1990’s. I think that is exactly what is going to happen here.

Despite that, I still think New England has a great chance to beat its Las Vegas season win total (7.5). I would not bet this number either way. However, I’ll call for 8-9 and for the Pats to tuck over while still having a rare back-to-back losing season.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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