Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets Against the Spread and Over Under

by Joey House - 3/25/2025

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 best bets Clifford Omoruyi Alabama Crimson Tide

The NCAA Basketball Tournament, commonly known as "March Madness," received this name due to the surprising upsets and unexpected outcomes of games that seemed straightforward on paper. While the first weekend typically brings shocking results, this year's tournament saw fewer upsets than usual. In the opening round, only five double-digit seeds advanced to the weekend, and only one of those potential "Cinderella" teams, 10-seed Arkansas, made it to the Sweet 16. More concerning for mid-major teams is that this marks the first tournament in history where only teams from the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) reached the Sweet 16. Although I'm not ready to write a eulogy for "March Madness," as ESPN's Stephen A. Smith has, this is a trend worth monitoring in the future.

On a bright note, a chalky bracket often sets the stage for competitive and fiercely contested matchups. There are no double-digit spreads, although the games between Duke and Arizona, as well as Auburn and Michigan, each have spreads sitting at 9.5 points. From barn burners to blowouts, Doc's Sports has all the information you need to turn the final rounds of March Madness into a profitable journey.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

BEST BETS (SIDES)

EAST REGION

6-BYU vs. 2-Alabama -5.5/ 175.5 (Thursday 7:09 pm EST)

BYU is a perfect 2-0 ATS from the first two rounds and is currently on a 9-1 SU/ 8-2 ATS run over its last ten games. Alabama, meanwhile, limped into March Madness, having lost 5 of its last 9 games and is 1-1 ATS after it didn't cover its 21.5-point spread over Robert Morris, winning 90-81. The Crimson Tide looked more composed in their 80-66 second-round victory over Saint Mary's as a 5-point favorite. The casual basketball fan's eyes light up when they see Bama's nation-leading scoring offense at 90.8 points per game. They fail to see, however, that their defense, which allows 81.0 points a game, is ranked 356th of 364. BYU has been efficient on offense, shooting 49.6% from the floor in the first two rounds. Defense wins championships, and Bama's lack thereof will be its downfall. The Cougars are a very live 5.5-point underdog here, but we'll take them with the points for a little cushion.

PICK: BYU +5.5 (-110)

SOUTH REGION

6-Ole Miss vs. 2-Michigan State -3.5/ 144.5 (Friday 7:09 pm EST)

Michigan State's head coach, the iconic Tom Izzo, is a perfect 9-0 against SEC teams in the NCAA tournament over his 30-year career. Sparty is 44th in the nation in defense points allowed (67.0 ppg) but leads the country in opponent 3-point field goal percentage at 27.8%. Mississippi has caught fire as of late from long range, hitting 19-39 of their 3-point attempts through the first two rounds. Michigan State holds a significant advantage in rebounding and getting to the foul line, allowing them another source of points if their shots aren't falling right away. The Spartans look to be a solid play laying the points, and if March Madness awakes its craziness, we could have an Elite 8 game between Sparty and the Michigan Wolverines.

PICK: Michigan State -3.5 (-110) ***BEST BET***

BEST BETS (TOTALS)

MIDWEST REGION

4-Purdue vs. 1-Houston -8.5/132.5 (Friday 10:09 pm EST)

Given the offensive capabilities of the other teams, it's only fitting that the two teams with the slowest playing pace are facing each other. Purdue is among the slowest 20% of teams in terms of pace, while Houston takes it to another level as the 6th-slowest team in the country. The Cougars are well-renowned for their shut-down defense, leading the country in points allowed with 58.4 points per game. Their defense is in the top 25 in many defensive statistical categories. The Boilermakers will have to rely on their outside shooting, which has been streaky for them recently. If you love defense, this is the game of the tournament for you.

PICK: Purdue-Houston UNDER 132.5 (-105)

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent March Madness Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers