NCAA Tournament Seed History and Trends

by Joey House - 3/17/2025

NCAA Tournament seed history John Poulakidas Yale Bulldogs

With March Madness in full swing, casual college basketball fans morph into "bracketologists," diving into the NCAA Tournament's seed puzzle. Their mission? Nailing the elusive perfect bracket for fame and glory. At Doc's Sports, we've got the tools, insights, and expert picks to guide you toward bracket perfection—and maybe even gambling immortality. With the odds of picking the perfect bracket at 1 in 9.2 quintillion, you will have earned your place in gambling lore.

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History of the NCAA Tournament Seeds Champions

While the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament has been in a bracket format since 1939, we will only look back to 1985, when it expanded to the more popular 64-team field. The inaugural 64-team field in 1985 was the perfect example of the uncertainty of the large-field format, as the Villanova Wildcats, led by the beloved coach Rollie Massimino, defeated a 1-seed Georgetown Hoyas and became not only the first National Champions of the expanded field but also the lowest-seeded winners as an 8-seed. As expected, the seeding that has crowned the most champions is the No. 1 seed, with 26 National Champions. The No. 2 seed is the logical runner-up with five titles. The third and fourth seeds have won the tournament four and twice, respectively. Interestingly, no team starting as the 5th seed has ever won a championship, but they have been bridesmaids four times. Finally, the 6th, 7th, and 8th seeds are the only remaining ones producing a champ. Since 1998, only one National Champion has been lower than a 3-seed, when the 2014 Connecticut Huskies became the only 7-seed to cut down the nets in the season's final game.

Opening Weekend: David vs. Goliath

The NCAA Tournament's opening weekend is a breeding ground for Cinderella stories, where underdog teams rise from obscurity to capture the hearts of fans nationwide. This "air of unpredicabilty" is one of the tournament's greatest charms—its single-elimination format doesn't always crown the most talented team but opens the door for unexpected heroes. Fueled by scrappy play and fearless determination, these upsets turn little-known programs into household names overnight. Whether it's a double-digit seed toppling a powerhouse, or a mid-major outlasting a blue blood, the chaos of March Madness ensures that the unpredictability of these early rounds remains a defining feature of the spectacle.

The NCAA's version of the David vs. Goliath matchup occurs when the One Seeds take on the lowly 16s. After a couple of close calls in the 1989 tourney, where both Princeton and East Tennessee State lost by a single point to their top-ranked foes (Georgetown and Oklahoma, respectively), many believed that the ultimate upset might not ever occur. After 33 years and 131 contests, the University of Maryland-Baltimore County became the first 16-seed to upset a 1-seed when they defeated Virginia in 2018. In 2023, just four tournaments later, Fairleigh Dickinson sent Purdue packing in the first round. However, picking the one seed will always be your best bet if you're trying to reach perfection.

Double-Digit Seeds Steal the Spotlight

While 16-seeds toppling 1-seeds grab the headlines, double-digit seeds—those ranked 10 or lower—often weave their own Cinderella tales, proving that the madness echoes well past a frenzied opening weekend. These scrappy underdogs defy the odds with grit, timely shooting, and a fearless mentality. LSU thrived starring as Cinderella, as they became the first 11-seed to make the Final Four in 1986 and performed an encore in 1987 when they became the first 10-seed in the 64-team format to make the Elite Eight. In 2008, 10-seed Davidson made its mark when future Hall of Famer Stephen Curry dazzled the basketball world with his long-range shooting while averaging 32 ppg in victories against Gonzaga, Georgetown, and Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. They fell short of a Final Four berth, losing 59-57 to the eventual champs, the Kansas Jayhawks. A decade later, in 2018, 11-seed Loyola-Chicago leaned on Sister Jean's prayers and a stifling defense, knocking off Miami in the first round and Tennessee in the second en route to the Final Four. Then, in 2021, 12-seed Oregon State started its postseason with a record barely above .500. However, they rode the momentum they generated from winning the Pac-12 Tournament. They became one of the fabled "12-seed monsters", defeating 5-seed Tennessee and 4-seed Oklahoma State the opening weekend and then 8-seed Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16 before being ousted by 2-seed Houston. In 2024, N.C. State wrote another chapter in its illustrious "Cinderella Story." In 1983, and on a 52-team field, the 6-seeded Wolfpack, coached by the indomitable Jim Valvano, became the then-lowest seed to win a National Championship when they defeated the "Phi Slama Jama" Houston Cougars, 54-52. Last year, after running the table in the ACC Tournament, N.C. State again donned their slippers, waltzing past 6-seed Texas Tech and 14-seed Oakland into the Sweet 16. They still had enough magic to defeat the 2-seed Marquette Eagles and conference rivals 4-seed Duke to earn the fourth Final Four appearance in the Wolfpack's history. The clock finally struck midnight in their 63-50 loss to 1-seed Purdue. These runs highlight the tournament's beauty: double-digit seeds don't just survive -- they rewrite the narrative, turning overlooked rosters into legends over a single, electrifying weekend.

Trends for the 2025 NCAA Tourney

In the last 16 NCAA tournaments, the only time that all of the top seeds 1 through 4 have won all their opening-round games was in 2017.

Thirteen-seed Yale vs. 4-seed Texas A&M. Yale, the Ivy League season champs, features the No. 1-rated offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency (according to Kenpom Stats). It is also fifth in the nation in defensive field goals allowed, and its weak perimeter defense shouldn't be exposed, as Texas A&M is very pedestrian in its long-range shooting.

A 15-seed has made it to the Sweet 16 in three of the past four tournaments.

In addition to that surprising trend, nine of the 11 15-seeds that have won since 1985 have finished in the top two of their respective conferences. Bryant, Omaha, and Robert Morris all won their leagues' regular-season and conference tournaments. Of those three schools, Bryant, out of the America East Conference, looks to have the "easiest" path to the Sweet 16, provided they can pull off the monumental upset of Tom Izzo's Michigan State squad. However, Izzo's Spartans have lost before as a 2-seed, falling to Middle Tennessee State in 2016.

The 11-seeds have the most first-round wins of the double-digit seeds, with a record of 61-95 against the 6-seeds. Since the 64-team expansion in 1985, only five tourneys have seen all six-seeds triumph in the first round.

This year's tournament could potentially send all four 11s to the round of 32, a feat that has never happened since the 64-team expansion. In the play-in games, whoever wins between San Diego State versus North Carolina (South region) and Texas versus Xavier (Midwest region) will be very competitive in their matchups against Ole Miss (South) and Illinois (Midwest). Drake will also be a very popular 11-seed in their game against Missouri. 11-seed VCU opened as a 2.5-point dog to 6-seed BYU.

The fabled "12-seed vs. 5-seed" matchup has produced 55 upsets in 156 opening-round games.

This is one of the most popular upset picks in every tournament, and with good reason. In five tournaments (2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2019), three of the 12-seeds defeated their higher-seeded foes. While we may not see that kind of chaos this year, 12-seeds UC San Diego and Oregon look to be very popular on the pundit's underdog list.

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NCAA Tournament Seed History and Trends

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