NCAA Tournament Seed History and Trends

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/20/2024

March Madness seed history Aubin Gateretse Stetson Hatters

The best playoffs in all of sports is set to begin this week as Madness is upon us. Every year fans become know-it-alls just to see their brackets bust in the opening round of the tournament. Picking a perfect bracket is not a matter of skill, but of sheer luck. Sixty-eight teams, one trophy. Though there is no perfect formula, the numbers often don’t lie. So, without further ado, let’s get into the numbers and trends of the most beloved playoffs in sports.

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Records of Seeds

There have been 4,786 games in March Madness history. Below is a seed-by-seed record and the number of championships each seed has taken home:

1-Seed: 500-128 / 25 Champions

2-Seed: 354-147 / 5 Champions

3-Seed: 281-148 / 4 Champions

4-Seed: 235-150 / 2 Champions

5-Seed: 176-152 / 4 Champions

6-Seed: 160-151 / 1 Champion

7-Seed: 136-151 / 1 Champion

8-Seed: 110-151 / 1 Champion

9-Seed: 93-152

10-Seed: 93-151

11-Seed: 98-152

12-Seed: 77-152

13-Seed: 38-152

14-Seed: 24-152

15-Seed: 16-152

16-Seed: 2-152

Opening Round Records

Here is a breakdown of the opening road records between each pairing:

1 vs 16 – 150-2

2 vs 15 – 141-11

3 vs 14 – 130-22

4 vs 13 – 120-32

5 vs 12 – 99-53

6 vs 11 – 94-58

7 vs 10 – 92-59

8 vs 9 – 74-78

The 8-Seed is the only top seed with a losing record all-time. It will be worth noting the impact that the Transfer Portal has on the matchup records. This year, 10-Seed Drake is arguably better than 7-Seed Washington State and is actually favored by Vegas to win the matchup. Additionally, Colorado State is another team that was active in the portal and could surprise 7-Seed Texas. No. 11-Seed and Mountain West Tournament Champion New Mexico Lobos could very well take down the 6-Seed Clemson Tigers, who received a favorable seed despite fizzling down the home stretch.

ATS Performance

Though the records are weighted to the top seeds, seed performance against the spread tells another story. Take a look at each seed’s performance ATS all-time:

1-Seed: 145-144-4

2-Seed: 100-120-10

3-Seed: 102-103-3

4-Seed: 89-92-3

5-Seed: 79-76-2

6-Seed: 58-67-3

7-Seed: 76-63-3

8-Seed: 60-59-5

9-Seed: 58-55-5

10-Seed: 51-56-3

11-Seed: 92-71-2

12-Seed: 62-53-2

13-Seed: 43-49-1

14-Seed: 34-49

15-Seed: 43-38-3

16-Seed: 69-66-3

These numbers also, largely, represent a pre-transfer portal era, and the 11-Seed was the best seed ATS. This will only continue as the lower seeds actively bring in talent via the portal and become more and more competitive. The 7-Seed has the best ATS performance from a top seed.

2024 Best Lower Seeds 9-16

9-Seed- Northwestern Wildcats

The Wildcats went 21-11 and finished third in the Big Ten. They have big wins against Purdue and Illinois, and Boo Buie is one of the most electric playmakers in the country. Buie is averaging 19.2 PPG, 5.1 APG, and is shooting 44.3% from deep.

10-Seed- Colorado State Rams

The Rams are by far the best 10-Seed. They dominated Virginia in the play-in game last night, holding the Cavaliers to just 42 points. The Rams picked up wins against Nevada, San Diego State, and Creighton. Transfer Nique Clifford and Joel Scott have transformed this squad that had a losing record a season ago.

11-Seed- New Mexico Lobos

A record of 26-9 and the Mountain West Tournament Champions. The Lobos are riding a four-game win streak in which their defense has been shutting down the opposition. They have allowed just 61 PPG over the streak and their resume includes wins over Colorado State (twice), San Diego State (twice), and Utah State.

12-Seed- Grand Canyon Lopes

Grand Canyon is back in the big dance and looking to make some noise. They have three players at 6-foot-10 or taller and are a great rebounding team. Gabe McGlothan can put a game away with dagger threes, while Tyon Grant-Foster is averaging nearly 20 PPG. In their opening round against Saint Mary’s, it will come down to the wire, but the Lopes have the playmakers to prevail.

13-Seed- Samford Bulldogs

There is good news for the Bulldogs in that their Round of 64 opponent will be without one of their two stars. Kevin McCullar Jr. is out for the Jayhawks, who already had depth concerns. Samford ranks 5th in the country, as they average 86 PPG and are shooting nearly 40% from deep as a team. Kansas will be no easy task, but Samford is primed for an upset.

14-Seed- Morehead State Eagles

The Eagles defense stepped up down the stretch, as they allowed just 58.7 PPG over their last six games. They have experienced the toughness of the Big Ten three this season against Purdue, Penn State, and Indiana. Guards Riley Minix (20.8 PPG) and Jordan Lathon (15.4 PPG) form a dynamic duo, and they average 11.6 offensive rebounds per game.

15-Seed- South Dakota State Jackrabbits

The Jackrabbits ended their season on an eight-game win streak and won the Summit League Tournament. They have four players averaging double-digit PPG, with Zeke Mayo’s 18.8 PPG leading the way. Size is a question mark for South Dakota State as well, as how they will handle the tougher competition in the tournament after losing 12 times in a schedule that featured no ranked teams.

16-Seed- Stetson Hatters

The Hatters unfortunately got the worst spot in the tournament as they have to play the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. They won the ASUN Tournament, and they have gone 9-3 since the start of February. Center Aubin Gateretse is their best three-point shooter, as he is shooting 50% from beyond the arc, while Jalen Blackmon is averaging 21.5 PPG. It would take a miracle, but if anyone can do it, it’s the Hatters.

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NCAA Tournament Seed History and Trends

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