NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament Predictions with Odds and Exepert Analysis

by Spencer Toth - 4/14/2025

NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament predictions Anthony Davis Dallas Mavericks

The NBA play-in tournament has added drama to the final weeks of the NBA regular season, and the final games in the Western Conference couldn’t have been more dramatic. With two games to go, just two wins separated 4th and 8th in the Western Conference. Now that all 82 games have been completed, the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies were the unlucky pair to slip into the play-in tournament. Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings have been locked in the 9th and 10th seeds for weeks and will have a single game to keep their season alive this week. It is widely expected that the Warriors and Grizzlies will hold onto the 7th and 8th seeds, but the single-game elimination format ensures that anything can happen in this pivotal week of the season. Which teams are worthy of your cold hard cash? Let’s find out.

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7th Place: Golden State Warriors (48-34)
Make Playoffs: -3000

Miss Playoffs: +1200

The Golden State Warriors are mammoth -300 moneyline favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies in the first game of the play-in tournament and will be an even bigger favorite against the Mavericks or Kings if they do fall to Memphis. The Warriors are currently 5th in the NBA in terms of championship odds at +1600 but have to focus on their task at hand before they start looking ahead to the future.

Golden State picked up Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline for Andrew Wiggins and some picks, and Butler has been excellent for Golden State. His partnership in the backcourt with Steph Curry is remarkable, and this is the first time in Butler’s career he is not the primary scoring option. This has removed a ton of the pressure from Butler on the offensive end, and he is forcing the ball on the inside far less often. While Butler is certainly a great addition, this team is still Steph Curry’s team. Curry and DPOY front-runner Draymond Green have spent their entire careers with the Warriors, and another ring for Curry could launch him into the GOAT conversation. It is easy to look ahead, but the reality is that even a dominant Warriors team does not deserve a -3000 line to make the playoffs. Memphis is a capable team with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. matching up nicely against Green and Curry, and they could certainly upset the Warriors in the first play-in game. Holding a -3000 ticket in a second matchup against the Kings and Mavericks is far from ideal, but it is also hard to see the Warriors miss the playoffs either, even at +1200. We will have lots of chances to tail or fade the Warriors, but this is not one of them.

Pick: Pass

8th Place: Memphis Grizzlies (48-34)
Make Playoffs: -450

Miss Playoffs: +320

The Grizzlies also slipped into the play-in tournament, but their future is far dimmer than the Warriors. They made a shocking decision to fire head coach Taylor Jenkins with 9 games left in the season, and they promptly went 4-5 since then. Ja Morant is capable of leading this team to a deep playoff run, but there is not enough continuity in Memphis to rely on them with odds like these. Assuming they don’t pull off the upset against the Warriors in the first game, the +320 odds to miss the playoffs will hold a ton of value heading into the second game.

Memphis plays at a lightning-fast pace and is top 10 in both offensive and defensive ratings. They certainly have the talent needed to upset the Warriors but have lost 5 of their last 6 against Golden State. They don’t have the defense needed to slow down Curry and are missing the shooters of their own to match his offense. This team is capable of catching fire in an instant, but their reliance on the 3-ball also means they have had several icy spells this season. Injuries could also be a concern after Memphis rested its starters against the Mavericks in the season finale, and the Grizzlies have been far from healthy this season. There are arguments to be made that Memphis will demolish either the Mavericks or Kings in the play-in tournament finale, but the sharper pick to make is to take the Grizzlies to miss the playoffs with hedging possibilities available on Friday.

Pick: Miss Playoffs +320

9th Place: Sacramento Kings (40-42)
Make Playoffs: +425

Miss Playoffs: -700

The Sacramento Kings made some puzzling moves at the trade deadline that have not panned out in their favor. They were forced to deal De’Aaron Fox after their star guard requested a trade, but their return was far from reasonable. Sacramento picked up DeMar DeRozan in the offseason, freeing him from the shackles of Zach LaVine in Chicago. Flash forward a few months, and LaVine is back on the court with DeRozan in Sacramento. To give credit where credit is due, LaVine has looked better in purple than he did in the Bulls red, but this team is still far too disjointed to make an impact in the postseason. Sabonis can vacuum up rebounds all he wants, but the Kings 22nd ranked defense has left them exposed time and time again this season.

The Kings are underdogs to make the postseason since they need to beat the Mavericks and the Grizzlies/Warriors to make the playoffs. Sabonis and Davis will battle in the paint, but I just don’t see the Kings beating Dallas, let alone the Grizzlies or Warriors. Sacramento went 7-13 in their final 20 games of the season, as they simply aren’t the same team without Fox. Lots of their season statistics are swayed by a strong first half, and the Kings have struggled to beat competent teams all season long. There isn’t much money to be made with the Kings to miss the playoffs, but it still offers as a good parlay piece that has two chances to cash.

Pick: Miss Playoffs -700

10th Place: Dallas Mavericks (39-43)
Make Playoffs: +700

Miss Playoffs: -1200

Is Anthony Davis the same player as Luka Doncic? Absolutely not. However, it is disrespectful to act like Davis is not one of the best players in the league on both ends of the court. Davis is one of the truly elite rim protectors in the NBA, and his ability to drive into the paint on offense makes him a crucial part of this team. Doncic’s heroics played a big role in the Mavericks' run to the NBA Finals last season, but this team is not that different this year. Kyrie Irving’s injury dampened the optimism in Dallas, but the Mavericks still have what it takes to win a couple of play-in games to make the playoffs this season.

Davis will need to be impactful on both ends of the court to offset the impact of Domantas Sabonis in the paint. Sabonis leads the league with 13.9 rebounds per game, while Davis would be in 6th place if he played enough games to qualify with 11.9 rebounds. Davis has played in three times more playoff games than Sabonis in his career and knows what needs to be done in the paint to tilt the court in favor of his team. The Mavericks haven’t been healthy in weeks, but the stars are aligning for them to finally field a starting five (without Irving). This team will not be making a deep playoff run, but they hold lots of upside with +700 odds to make the playoffs. They do not deserve to be +165 against the Kings either, and you can lock in some profits by taking that line before swinging for the fences with a potential postseason qualification.

Pick: Make Playoffs +700, Moneyline vs Kings +165

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Pick:	OVER 1.5 (-150)
Start:	April 18, 2025 @ 3:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp Soccer pick from Doc’s Sports for Friday: (8-Unit NHL Best Bet Below) Spanish LaLiga Take Espanyol/Getafe OVER 1.5 (-150) (3 p.m. EST, Friday April 19) These teams aren’t great offensively, but both have been in their best offensive form of the season recently. Espanyol have scored in 12 straight matches. They have six goals in their last two matches, and both of those were on the road. They will be missing their top scorer here because of suspension, but we think his teammates will step up. And with the way they have been performing, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the home side covers this line by themselves. Getafe have scored in five straight matches. They have 10 goals in their last five matches. So there’s a great chance they will get their share of this low total here on Friday. These sides have played in low scoring matches the last few meetings, but with their current form, combined with this low total, we will lay the juice for the offenses to stay hot here at RCDE Stadium. Read More Read Less

NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament Predictions with Odds and Exepert Analysis

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