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2024 NBA Season Win Totals Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/13/2024

NBA season win totals predictions Kawhi Leonard LA Clippers

There is no better feeling than seeing your season-long NBA futures bet inch closer and closer to a winning ticket. Unlike the playoff markets, there are rarely any bad beats in the regular season wins market. If you can correctly identify a franchise that is over or undervalued, you can take advantage without the worry of one bad shot or bad game costing you a winner. We went 17-13 last season with our NBA season win totals predictions and will be looking to match that winning record this year, too. It has been an eventful offseason in the NBA, and here are the Over/Unders for all 30 teams heading into the season. 

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Eastern Conference:

Atlanta Hawks: 36.5 Wins

The Hawks have been stuck in the middle of the standings for the last half-decade, too good to tank but not good enough to compete. Trae Young lost his co-star DeJounte Murray, and it’s hard to see the Hawks matching their 36-46 record from last season. They won’t be in the lottery positions, but they will once again be a lower-end play-in tournament team. UNDER

Brooklyn Nets: 19.5 Wins

The Nets have the lowest NBA win total this season, but this is flat-out disrespectful to this team. They may have lost Mikal Bridges, and have little motivation to win, but they still have enough talent to get 20+ wins. Their starting five features proven NBA stars, and they have a surprising amount of depth for an expected bottom feeder. In the last three seasons, only the Pistons and Wizards have finished with fewer than 20 wins. More often than not, the Nets avoid joining that dubious list. OVER

Boston Celtics: 58.5 Wins

If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it. The Celtics cruised to the top seed in the NBA by a 7-game margin before going on one of the most dominant runs to the NBA Finals of the modern era. They stood firm in the offseason, re-signing their role players rather than looking for new talent. A year after finishing with 64 wins, this 58.5 total may feel a bit low, and it is. The Celtics have proven they can win almost all of their home games (37-4 last year) and take care of business on the road. As long as they don’t get too banged up, this line is low enough to take the OVER. 

Charlotte Hornets: 30.5 Wins

A healthy LaMelo Ball could elevate the Hornets closer to playoff contention, but expecting 10 more wins from them feels like a lot to ask for. Charlotte got unlucky to only select 6th in the NBA draft, and didn’t make any real changes that would reflect this jump in wins. It’s a high line for a team that still needs another year or two of rebuilding. UNDER 

Chicago Bulls: 28.5 Wins

The Bulls moved on from DeMar DeRozan in the offseason, bringing in Josh Giddey to run the point. There is no doubt the aging Bulls side got a little bit worse, but this is a very low total considering they got 39 wins last year while Zach LaVine missed almost the entire season. The Bulls will probably be slipping out of the play-in tournament, but they will still be good enough to eclipse this mark. OVER

Cleveland Cavaliers: 48.5 Wins

This total aligns with the Cavs 48-34 record last season. Cleveland had an up-and-down season filled with injuries, with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley all missing 25+ games apiece. However, they finished the season 9-14 in their final 25 games. This is a close call, but the Cavs will take a tiny step back this year, finishing with 45-47 wins. UNDER

Detroit Pistons: 25.5 Wins

The Pistons set the record for the longest losing streak in the history of the NBA with 28 straight losses last season. While the Pistons were dealing with injuries, and added Tobias Harris to the lineup, this line is still expecting too much improvement from Detroit. Even if the 28 straight losses were ignored, the Pistons still would’ve gone 14-40 for a 26% win rate, or only 21 wins across a full season. Detroit will do better but won’t get to 26+ wins this season. UNDER

Indiana Pacers: 47.5 Wins

Indiana made a shock run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, on the back of a 47-win regular season campaign. The Pacers have the youth to stay healthy on the court and have had another offseason to work on their defense. Their three-point shooters and fast tempo ensures they frequently take care of business against the lower tier teams, and that will be enough for them to build on last season’s win total. OVER

Miami Heat: 44.5 Wins

The Heat have been a difficult team to get a read on, as they consistently underperform in the regular season, before tuning up a gear in the playoffs. Miami dealt with countless injuries last season, and still found a way to finish with 46 wins. Once again, the Heat are being disrespected, as they will once again just eclipse this win total. OVER

Milwaukee Bucks: 50.5 Wins

The Bucks have a strong starting lineup featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard and made some key moves to bolster their bench. After selling their assets for Lillard, the Bucks were caught short handed when one of their two stars were unable to play. There is no doubt Milwaukee can go on a deep playoff run, but they lack the consistency to finish near the top of the Eastern conference. UNDER

New York Knicks: 53.5 Wins

There were high hopes for New York last season, but injuries to Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and OG Anunoby derailed their hype train. A year later, the team is healthy once again and has brought in Mikal Bridges for a boatload of draft picks. They have the star power, the depth, and the motivation to do great in the regular season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Knicks get close to 60 wins, and at a line of 53.5, we have an easy choice. OVER

Orlando Magic: 47.5 Wins

The Magic brought in Caldwell-Pope from the Nuggets, hoping some veteran experience can help mold their bursting young core. Paolo Banchero continues to be the face of the franchise, and the Magic look poised to lean on their defense to pick up victories this season. This total is right at their 47-35 record from last year, and I expect them to secure an extra win or two this campaign. OVER

Philadelphia 76ers: 52.5 Wins

The 76ers were one of the most active teams in the offseason, acquiring Paul George to join Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. However, they got rid of Tobias Harris in the process and are suddenly a very shallow team. Embiid and George have both been plagued with injuries in recent seasons, making this 52.5-win line quite high. Philadelphia will be dangerous in the playoffs, but when their stars inevitably miss time, they will fall short of this line. UNDER

Toronto Raptors: 30.5 Wins

The Raptors sold their team for the future at the deadline last season, moving on from Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. After losing Gary Trent Jr. to free agency, the Raptors lack the proven NBA stars to challenge for a playoff spot. Scottie Barnes will continue to develop, but the Raptors are still a season away from being legitimate playoff threats. UNDER

Washington Wizards: 21.5 Wins

Washington is in the middle of a rebuild, and the wins will be few and far between this season. Jordan Poole is too selfish to lead a team, and they will be at the bottom of the East by the season’s end. I expect them to finish dead last in the East, and last place has only had 22+ wins once in the last six seasons. Washington will probably improve on their 15 wins last season, but they won’t quite reach the needed total. UNDER

Western Conference:

Dallas Mavericks: 49.5 Wins

Dallas made one of the biggest offseason moves by bringing in longtime Warrior Klay Thompson. The aging Thompson won’t be able to make too much of an impact on the court, but his leadership off the court will pay dividends. The Mavericks finished with 50 wins last year, and they didn’t really get any better heading into the season. It won’t be by much, but the Mavericks will go slightly UNDER.

Denver Nuggets: 51.5 Wins

When will it be time to stop doubting the Nuggets? Denver lost Caldwell-Pope, but they picked up Russell Westbrook in the offseason. Their team is still spearheaded by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, making them one of the most dangerous teams in the league. They’ve gone over this line in back-to-back seasons and will do so once again in 2024-25. OVER

Golden State Warriors: 43.5 Wins

The Warriors got bounced in the play-in tournament last season after finishing with 46 wins. The trio of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson was disbanded, and it's hard to see the Warriors seamlessly transition into the next era of their franchise’s history. UNDER

Houston Rockets: 43.5 Wins

The Rockets finished 41-41 last season, which wasn’t good enough to make the play-in tournament. Their young team exceeded expectations last season, and they will do so again this year. Fred VanVleet is the perfect veteran to lead this young core, and they will take the next step towards relevance with a solid season. OVER

LA Clippers: 40.5 Wins

A team with a healthy Kawhi Leonard will not be finishing below the .500 mark, but that is no guarantee given his recent injury history. The departure of Paul George will allow other players to step into the spotlight, and I expect to see a more cohesive Clippers lineup on a nightly basis. OVER

LA Lakers: 43.5 Wins            

LeBron and Bronny James will become the first father-son duo to step onto an NBA court together, but the expectations are limited for a disjointed Lakers team. However, all eyes will be on LeBron and his son, and I expect the NBA to do their best at keeping the Lakers in a playoff position. It’ll be close, but the Lakers will go OVER. 

Memphis Grizzlies: 47.5 Wins

Ja Morant is back for the Grizzlies, and Memphis will be looking to remind the NBA they are a team to be feared. It’s easy to forget the Grizzlies finished in the second seed in back-to-back seasons prior to last year. Memphis will be nothing like their 27-55 record last year, but expecting this big a jump may be too much to ask. Morant will make an impact, but expecting 21 or more wins added to their record is just a few too many. UNDER

Minnesota Timberwolves: 52.5 Wins

The Timberwolves elite defense will allow them to string together wins this season, and they won’t have any problems reaching this line. Anthony Edwards gives Minnesota the offensive spark they need. And with virtually the same 56 win lineup as last year, the Timberwolves will eclipse this line. OVER

New Orleans Pelicans: 46.5 Wins

New Orleans didn’t settle for their 49-win campaign last season, as they got swept in the first round of the postseason. Jonas Valanciunas was shipped out to make room for DeJounte Murray in New Orleans. Murray makes the Pelicans better. However, with limited depth at center, the Pelicans are playing a risky game. Zion Williamson has dealt with injuries in the past. And if the big man goes down for any extended period, this win total will be unattainable. It’s not fun to root for an injury, but there is only one way to go with this line. UNDER

OKC Thunder: 56.5 Wins

The Thunder are here to stay. After a few years of gathering boatloads of draft picks, the Oklahoma City Thunder are contenders once again. They brought in Alex Caruso and Isiah Hartenstein to solidify their young lineup, and both guys are excellent leaders. This is a massive win total, but the Thunder got better in the offseason and will replicate or beat their 57 win season last year. OVER

Phoenix Suns: 47.5 Wins

The Suns reached the 2021 NBA Finals with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and looked poised to challenge for the title in years to come. However, three years later the Suns have yet to get past the second round and have disappointed time after time. The West got better, while Phoenix failed to make any of the changes they desperately needed. UNDER

Portland Trail Blazers: 22.5 Wins

Portland is in the middle of a rebuild, and this line reflects that. Damian Lillard is a distant memory, as the Portland fanbase accepts that they will be near the bottom of the standings once again. It’s a low line, but Portland will be the worst team in the Western Conference. UNDER

San Antonio Spurs: 36.5 Wins

The Spurs are looking to come out of their rebuild and compete once again, signing veteran Chris Paul to help put wins on the board. Victor Wembanyama had a stellar rookie year, leading the league in blocks (254) by a wide margin. The Spurs will be better than last year, but this win total has them competing for a spot in the play-in tournament. That feels like a bit too much to ask for San Antonio, and we will have to go with the UNDER. 

Sacramento Kings: 46.5 Wins

The Kings added DeMar DeRozan to their young roster, and they won’t have a problem getting 47+ wins this season. D’Aaron Fox leads a deep, talented roster to a top 5 seed in the West, setting them up for a big postseason run. OVER

Utah Jazz: 29.5 Wins

The Jazz have been looking to trade Lauri Markkanen in the offseason but have failed to find any suitors. They will be looking to make a trade sooner rather than later. And once they do so, this team will struggle to compete on a nightly basis. A 29.5-win total is still quite low considering the disjointed Jazz still picked up 31 wins last season. However, when it is all said and done, the Jazz will move on from Markkanen and look to slide down the standings for the upcoming draft. UNDER

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