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NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Jeremy Block - 4/16/2025

NBA rookie of the year odds and predictions Stephon Castle San Antonio

Every year, the NBA drafts a bunch of young, college players who just figured out how to do their own laundry, hands them millions of dollars, and expects them to save struggling franchises. Most of them don’t. Some disappear so fast you start questioning if they were actually drafted or if you just hallucinated their Summer League highlights. But every so often, a handful of rookies step up and immediately have an impact.

While the 2024-25 draft class doesn’t have the same alien-level hype as last year’s Wemby-Chet debate, it does have size, skill, and a whole lot of “wait, he’s doing what now?” moments. Let’s take a dive into the latest Rookie of the Year and see who’s likely to walk away with the award this year. 

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Stephon Castle (Spurs) -1200 

While there have been some standout performances from the rest of this rookie class, it’s been mostly Spurs guard Stephon Castle grabbing this race by the throat. He’s currently the heavy betting favorite across all major sportsbooks to win Rookie of the Year — and honestly, it makes sense. The former UConn standout was drafted to be a complementary weapon, someone to slide in next to Wembanyama and Chris Paul and keep the offense humming. But that script flipped fast. With Wemby’s season ending early thanks to yet another unfortunate injury, Castle quickly took the reins and never looked back.

Averaging 14.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, Castle has been a legit spark plug with the ball in his hands.  When the team needed a bucket, he’s not shy about getting it himself. The Spurs may have drafted him to be a sidekick, but he's looking more and more like the main character.

Zaccharie Risacher (Hawks) +1100

Coming in at number two on the Rookie of the Year race is Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher. Unlike Castle, Risacher didn’t exactly walk into a free-for-all. He’s sharing the floor with guys like Trae Young and De’Andre Hunter, which means the ball isn’t always coming his way. Still, the French rookie has found his footing in Atlanta and made it pretty clear he belongs.

His stats aren’t going to win you any fantasy leagues: totaling a season average of 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists. Nothing wild, but it’s the way he played that turned heads. Risacher quickly earned a reputation as one of those quietly effective players who just does a little bit of everything right. His shooting was a little underwhelming this year, sure, but he still brought solid defense and the kind of versatility coaches drool over. You can throw him into just about any lineup and he won’t screw it up.

Alex Sarr (Wizards)  +1100

The Wizards were kind of a beautiful mess this year — a roster full of rookies, role players, and zero veteran leadership to keep things from going off the rails. At times, it looked like chaotic pickup basketball. But when things actually clicked, it was often because rookie big man Alex Sarr quietly did his job, cleaned up the mess, and kept the whole thing from completely imploding. 

Even though Alex Sarr got tossed right into the chaos of a full-on rebuild in Washington, it’s safe to say he didn’t disappoint. He held his own all season, showing he could scrap under the rim, crash the boards, and even knock down the 3-point shot. With +1100 odds to win Rookie of the Year, I’m all over this bet. Sure, he’s not the favorite, but he’s been quietly solid all year and one of the most consistent rookies in the mix.

Zach Edey (Grizzlies)  +12500

Despite the Memphis Grizzlies already having a promising big man in Jaren Jackson Jr., they were still in need of a pure center — someone who could open up the floor for their guard play. Enter Zach Edey, the 7'0" Purdue product.

Edey came into the league with some major questions about his mobility and stamina, especially when it came to fitting into a team that loves to get out and run. While he’s probably not walking away with the Rookie of the Year award, his first season has been solid: 9.2 points, 8.3 rebounds in just 21 minutes per game.

The odds are currently set at +12500, and if you’re thinking of placing a bet, I’d say tread carefully. Why? Well, while Edey had a rookie season, he still showed some vulnerabilities on the defensive end. He struggled to switch on guards in pick-and-roll situations and wasn't quick enough to recover. Again, he had a solid eason, but let’s not get carried away and call it a "Rookie of the Year" performance.

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