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NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Predictions with Odds and Exepert Analysis

by Spencer Toth - 4/14/2025

NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament predictions Paolo Banchero Orlando Magic

The addition of the NBA play-in tournament has been a great success for the NBA, and it has given us the chance to profit from these extra games. The Eastern Conference play-in race was far from dramatic, as the Magic, Hawks, Bulls, and Heat all clinched 7th through 10th more than a week ago. However, only two of these teams will get the privilege of losing to -- I mean facing off -- against the Cavaliers and Celtics in the first round. The Magic and Hawks have the benefit of needing only one victory to qualify, while the Heat and Bulls need a pair, but these mediocre teams can expect razor-thin games this week. Every game this week will have plenty on the line, and this promises to be some of the most exciting basketball between evenly matched teams. There are a few lines that stick out as potentially profitable, so let’s take a look at the best ways to attack each of these playoff hopefuls. 

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7th Place: Orlando Magic (41-41)
Make Playoffs: -800 

Miss Playoffs: +500

The Magic earned their 7th place seed on the back of some incredible defense this season, but their postseason spot is in far more jeopardy than these odds suggest. Orlando’s defense is impressive, but they aren’t the same team without Jalen Suggs in the lineup. Suggs went down with a season-ending injury at the start of March, and the Magic’s defensive rating is still being carried by their dominant 17-9 start to the season. Suggs’s ability to interrupt passing lanes led to a team-high 1.5 steals this season, and Orlando went 20-15 in the games he played this year compared to 21-26 without him. 

While Suggs off the roster is a big loss, the play of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner could carry the Magic to victory. Banchero is the future of this franchise, and both of these prospects seamlessly returned from serious injuries this season. Banchero leads the team with 25.9 PPG, but his streaky scoring means Wagner is certainly needed to offset his cold spells. His ability to create his own offense is crucial, as the Magic lack a traditional point guard on their roster. No one has more than 5 assists per game this season, and the Magic will struggle to move the ball against the pesky Dyson Daniels in the first game of the play-in tournament. 

All hope is not lost for the Magic, but I certainly see the upside of the +500 odds on them to miss the playoffs. Atlanta holds all the value in the opening game, and the +500 ticket will age nicely against either the Bulls or the Heat in the play-in tournament final. The Magic are far too inconsistent to get a number like this and went 21-19 after a loss this season. Trae Young and the Hawks have won seven of their last ten meetings and could keep that trend going on Tuesday in Orlando.

Pick: Miss Playoffs +500

8th Place: Atlanta Hawks (40-42)
Make Playoffs: -350 

Miss Playoffs: +250

The Hawks could be the play of the year in the play-in tournament. Trae Young turns up for big games like few other NBA superstars, and he is the best player in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Atlanta has a ton of value as a +165 moneyline underdog against the Magic and will be a sizable home favorite against either of the other teams if they do lose their first game. 

Trae Young has never had an All-Star teammate in his career, but he continues to find a way to keep the Hawks relevant. Atlanta has finished in the play-in tournament for the fourth consecutive season and has had between 36 and 43 wins in five straight seasons. The Hawks have been missing Jalen Johnson since January; they traded away De’Andre Hunter at the deadline, but Trae Young refuses to let this team tank. The Hawks have been able to successfully navigate the play-in tournament in the past, and there is no doubt they are the best team remaining at this stage of the season. 

Getting past the Magic defense will not be easy, but no Jalen Suggs means Young will be able to freely operate behind the three-point line. Young leads the league by a wide margin with 11.6 assists per game, but he also leads the league with 4.7 turnovers. The ball will be in Young’s hands almost every possession, and that is something the Hawks coaching staff is more than comfortable with. Atlanta has the best player on the court, they continue to defy expectations, and will upset Orlando in the first game of the tournament. You can play it safe with the -350 odds on the Hawks to make the tournament, but don’t be afraid to sprinkle on the +165 moneyline too. 

Pick: Make Playoffs -350, Moneyline vs Magic +165

9th Place: Chicago Bulls (39-43)
Make Playoffs: +375 

Miss Playoffs: -550

Chicago held onto 9th place despite a poor finish to the season, and there is very little upside with this team. They traded away their superstars for young talent, as Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine have all departed. Josh Giddy is certainly capable of leading this team to tangible success in the future, but there are too many holes in this lineup to expect anything this year. 

Chicago will host the Heat, then travel to either Atlanta or Orlando to make the playoffs, and I just don’t see them pulling off back-to-back wins. Nikola Vucevic has struggled to slow down Bam Adebayo throughout his career, and the Heat backcourt is full of shooters who can punish a lazy Bulls defense. Even if the Bulls scrape past Miami, Orlando, and Atlanta are both far better than Chicago. The Bulls don’t have the perimeter defense to disrupt Trae Young, and they will struggle to break down the Magic on the interior. All four of these teams feel like horrible matchups for the Bulls. And even at -550, the miss is looking like a tasty parlay piece. 

Pick: Miss Playoffs -550

10th Place: Miami Heat (37-45)
Make Playoffs: +320 

Miss Playoffs: -450

The Heat will need to win two road games to make the playoffs, but that is something they are capable of doing. Miami had nearly identical home and road records in the regular season, and they have been able to battle away from home all year long. Jimmy Butler has departed, and his absence is still being felt in the backcourt. However, without the endless drama he brought to the dressing room, distracting Miami, the Heat have looked far more focused over the last two months of the season. 

Tyler Herro has been seen as an underrated NBA star in Butler’s shadow, and he has finally been given the chance to lead a team in the backcourt. His 23.9 PPG leads the team, and the chemistry he has built with Andrew Wiggins will fill the Heat fanbase with optimism for the future. Bam Adebayo rounds out the Heat’s ‘Big 3,’ and the Heat have the most playoff experience on their roster. Adebayo and Herro played crucial roles in the Heat’s shocking playoff runs over the last few seasons, and Wiggins won the NBA championship with the Warriors not too long ago. The Heat generally step up and deliver in do-or-die situations, and they hold plenty of upside with +320 odds to make the playoffs. 

Pick: Make Playoffs +320

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