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2024-25 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 3/12/2025

NBA Championship odds and predictions Luka Doncic Los Angeles Lakers

The NBA regular season has entered its final month, and now is the perfect time to lock in your NBA championship picks. Early-season futures have the downside of tying up your bankroll for several months, but that isn’t the case now. You can still get a great price on many contenders while avoiding the lengthy time frame that comes with championship bets. A total of six teams have odds shorter than +3000, so let’s take a look at which of these favorites are worthy of a wager at this stage of the season. 

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Boston Celtics: +180

If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it. The Celtics elected to run back an identical lineup as last season, and they appear to be on track to repeat as champions. Their balanced scoring, with several shooters capable of hitting three pointers, has turned them into quite the juggernaut. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will rightfully get plenty of credit, but this team is great due to their depth over their top-end talent. Players like Payton Pritchard and Jrue Holiday are unsung heroes for the Celtics, and their health is a crucial factor in weighing the Celtics odds at making another deep run. 

It is hard to argue with the Celtics coming in as the odds-on favorite to win, and I can certainly justify a bet at +180 odds. The Eastern Conference is missing the elite contenders found out West, and the Celtics will have an easy first round matchup. The +180 odds don’t give us much wiggle room, but the Celtics will be heavy favorites to advance in each series. I won’t be locking up funds on a three-month bet for a payout like this, but there is certainly money to be made on the Celtics this season. 

Pick: Boston Celtics Championship +180 2-Units

Oklahoma City Thunder: +200

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be a very good team for a very long time. They currently sit on top of the Western Conference with an 11-game lead over the Nuggets and have a truly stacked team heading into the postseason. Not only do the Thunder have heaps of young talent, but they also have the most draft capital in the league. The Thunder appear destined for not one, but multiple titles, in the next decade, but they will be forced to wait one more season before tasting gold. 

It is one thing to dominate in the regular season, but the lack of experience on the Thunder roster makes this price hard to justify. The Celtics were amongst the best teams in the league for multiple years before they finally broke through, while the Thunder won their first and only playoff series last year since 2016. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the frontrunner for the MVP award, but translating that into a deep run is too much to ask for. The Western Conference is stacked with contenders, and you will be able to make more money tailing the Thunder on a series-by-series basis rather than a measly +200 championship future. 

Pick: Pass

Cleveland Cavaliers: +550

The Cavaliers are likely to secure the top seed in the Eastern Conference, which could be crucial in the later rounds of the postseason. The Cavaliers came out of nowhere after injuries derailed their playoff run last season. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are a capable backcourt duo, while the towering pair of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley do a great job at patrolling the paint. The Cavaliers are strong on both ends of the court, and there are arguments to be made that they deserve odds closer to the Celtics and Thunder. 

Mobley is the DPOY frontrunner after the injury to Victor Wembanyama, and the Cavaliers playoff chances hinge on his shoulders. His ability to control the painted area allows Allen to fearlessly follow his man behind the three-point line knowing he has Mobley to back him up. Against dominant big men such as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns, this will be a huge factor in the Cavaliers ability to slow them down. Cleveland certainly has upset potential, but I just can’t justify them at these odds. They will likely be underdogs against the Celtics in the ECF and will be dogs against the Western Conference champion, too. The upside of locking in a future bet at this stage of the season is lost, as the Cavaliers are already at their peak value. 

Pick: Pass

Los Angeles Lakers +1300

The Los Angeles Lakers are always one of the most popular franchises, and they have set themselves up for another positive future with the acquisition of Luka Doncic. Doncic single-handedly carried the Mavericks to the Finals last season, and he is now sharing the court with LeBron James. The Lakers have been on fire since his arrival and will only be getting healthier before the playoffs get underway. Their seeding in the Western Conference is precarious, and they will want to prioritize a top-four seed for an easier first round matchup. 

There is no shortage of star talent in Los Angeles. However, does this team have the mental fortitude needed to survive a grueling NBA playoff run? I think so. LeBron James will want to add another accolade to his trophy cabinet, and a championship at 40 years old would be incredibly impressive. Doncic is still searching for his first ring, and the Lakers have a nice balance on offense and defense at the moment. It would be hard to make the current edition of the Lakers an underdog against many of the other contenders, and there is plenty of money to be made at +1300 odds. This will be a very popular pick, but there is nothing Adam Silver wants more than to see the Lakers make a deep run this season. 

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers Championship +1300 1-Unit

Denver Nuggets +1400

Nikola Jokic is my MVP. While the award will probably go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it is hard to deny the season Jokic has had. He is 3rd in PPG, 3rd in rebounds, and 2nd in assists. His +13.63 Box +/- is the second best of all time, only trailing 2021-22 Nikola Jokic. If you took Nikola Jokic off of this squad, the Denver Nuggets would not only drop into the play-in tournament, but would likely miss the postseason altogether. He is just that good.

I can talk about how dominant Jokic is all day, and he has proven he can carry subpar teammates to a championship. The Nuggets won with +1600 odds in 2023, and the roster hasn’t changed too much since then. Players like Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon will need to be at their best, but that isn’t hard given how Jokic elevates the play of his teammates. Murray especially has had a poor season this year. However, if he can return to his playoff form, the Nuggets are poised for a deep run. They currently sit 2nd in the Western Conference, which means they would theoretically avoid the Thunder until the WCF. There is enough upside here to take a shot, as it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Jokic and the Nuggets make a deep run. 

Pick: Denver Nuggets Championship +1400 1-Unit

Golden State Warriors: +2000

Steph Curry has found a new co-star with Jimmy Butler, but that doesn’t mean this team is a lock to make a deep playoff run. Golden State is sitting in 6th place in the West and are just half a game out of the play-in tournament with an above average strength of schedule remaining. They are far lower in the standings than the Lakers or Nuggets and will be forced to win numerous road games in the postseason if they are to go on a lengthy run.

Curry is still capable of delivering timeless performances, but the rest of the Warriors team is lacking talent. Butler is a different animal in the playoffs, and Buddy Heild can rip it from deep, but they quickly drop off in quality from there. Draymond Green has seen better days, and it’s hard to think Jonathan Kuminga is the third star in Golden State. There are too many holes in this roster for the Warriors to navigate a crowded Western Conference with an aging Steph Curry. Golden State has proven me wrong before, but their low seed and lack of depth will be their downfall this season. There are much better shots to take with longer odds, and +2000 isn’t a long enough price to sprinkle on. 

Pick: Pass

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