2024-25 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 7/30/2024

NBA Championship odds Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks

The NBA offseason is the perfect time to lock in a season-long title pick for championship futures. While it can be annoying to lock up a portion of your bankroll for nearly an entire year, the extra value available cannot be ignored. Securing the best price possible can be the difference between winning and losing, as there is no guarantee these odds will still be available when the NBA tips off on October 22, 2024. The Boston Celtics cashed +500 pre-season tickets last season, ending their 16-season championship drought. Will they be the first back-to-back champions since 2018, or will yet another franchise claim the ultimate NBA prize? There are seven teams coming in with +1000 or shorter odds, so let’s take a look at which are deserving of your hard-earned cash.

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Boston Celtics +300

The Boston Celtics are entering the season as sizable championship favorites, offering less than half the payout of any other NBA team. The Celtics cruised to the championship last season, losing just three playoff games and never trailing a series. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown finally silenced the doubters with the win, and it’s hard to argue with their status as pre-season favorites. They easily swatted aside the competition last year and are getting ready to run it back with virtually the same roster. Tatum and Brown’s offense, combined with Jrue Holiday’s defense, is a dangerous combination, and the Celtics have a variety of depth players ready to deliver crucial minutes. While I certainly agree the Celtics should be the favorites, a +300 price is just a little steep for anything at this time. First of all, the Celtics were fortunate with their playoff run last year. They faced off against a Miami team missing Jimmy Butler, a Cavaliers team missing Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen, and a Pacers team without Tyrese Haliburton. In the Finals, Luka Doncic was extremely hobbled, and the Celtics were able to keep virtually their entire roster healthy all playoffs long. Staying healthy is always critical to making a deep playoff run in the NBA, and the Celtics certainly took advantage of some shorthanded teams. Additionally, there is no value in locking in this price now. Assuming the Celtics cruise to the top seed in the East, they will still likely be in the +300 range heading into the postseason. There is little upside and plenty of downside with the Celtics at this price.

Oklahoma City Thunder +750

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a very bright future in front of them, and it feels inevitable that they will win a championship this decade. They brought in Alex Caruso and Isiah Hartenstein to solidify their young team in the offseason, which is still led by MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. There is no doubt the OKC Thunder have one of the best rosters in the league, and it will all come down to how they perform in the postseason. Gilgeous-Alexander relies on driving to the hoop and getting fouls in the regular season. However, when the whistles get swallowed up in the playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander is far less effective. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets have proven NBA champions on their rosters yet have longer odds than OKC. Their young core will bring glory to Oklahoma City soon enough, but they still need another year of development before they deserve these kinds of odds.

Philadelphia 76ers +800

Can the 76ers finally get over the hump? Joel Embiid has put together a fantastic career in the regular season but has yet to reach the third round in his career. The 76ers went all-in in the offseason, bringing in Paul George to join their talented roster. The improvements from their guards, Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre, ensure the 76ers still have enough depth to contend in the postseason, but the lack of other assets means their championship window will soon be closing. George will take some of the offensive pressure off of Embiid, which could allow him to play fewer minutes in the regular season. Head coach Nick Nurse will have learned his lesson after running Embiid into the ground last season. It is widely agreed that the 76ers are still one of the best teams in the league. However, due to their lack of playoff success, they still feel like an underdog in the eyes of many. At +800 odds, there is just enough upside to take a shot with Philadelphia before the season tips off.

Denver Nuggets +850

The Nuggets were handed a reality check last season as a stellar Timberwolves side shut the door on them in the postseason. Denver is still fresh off their 2023 championship and would love nothing more than to start a dynasty with another title. The Nuggets made a big splash by signing Russell Westbrook, as the list of household names on their roster continues to grow. These odds are far longer than the +400 preseason odds for them last summer, yet not much has changed on their roster. Nikola Jokic continues to prove he is the best basketball player in the world, and the shooters surrounding him have only gotten better since last year. The offense is abundant, the defense is solid, and they have shown they can win big games in the postseason. At +850 odds, I don’t need much convincing to take a well-rounded team, with the best player in the league on their roster. Hammer this one before the public wakes up and makes the Nuggets the Western Conference favorites.

New York Knicks +900

The New York Knicks got decimated by injuries last season, yet they still made a deep run in the postseason. Jalen Brunson is only getting better and will be one of the MVP frontrunners this season. If the Knicks can stay healthy, they have the highest ceiling of anyone in the league. A starting lineup with Brunson, newly acquired Mikal Bridges, defensive wizard OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson will strike fear into their opponents. The depth with Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo ensures they can patch a hole or two if someone goes down, and this +900 price will not be available for long. The ‘Villanova Knicks’ have everything they need to win the championship and must be scooped up sooner than later. The fact that the Knicks were able to secure a playoff spot last year, and even win a round, is nothing short of remarkable. Five of their six best players were unavailable, leaving Brunson and bench players to carry the workload down the stretch. A hot start to the year will see these odds plummet, as the city of New York has a real chance to end their 51-year title drought.

Dallas Mavericks +1000

The NBA runner-ups are rather far down the preseason title odds, leaving lots of value on the Mavericks to make another postseason run. Luka Doncic is still yet to be the MVP, but it would be hard to argue his inclusion in the conversation surrounding the best player in the league. Doncic put his team on his back in the postseason, refusing to rest despite his growing list of injuries. His partnership with Kyrie Irving flourished, and the arrival of Klay Thompson could give them the spark they need. Dallas is a strong defensive team, with plenty of shooters to fill up the hoop on the other end. Their offensive reliance on Doncic can sometimes cause them problems, as if Doncic is unavailable, the Mavericks are toast. Dallas knows what Doncic can do, and their postseason progression will fall on the shoulders of their supporting cast. Irving and Thompson are 32 and 34, respectively, and the NBA veterans know what it takes to find success in the playoffs. If their shooters can deliver, they will go deep. However, I just don’t see that happening. Dallas is once again showing up to training camp with a different roster, and it will be hard for them to find the chemistry needed to take a top seed in the West. Thompson’s best days are well behind him, and Dallas will slip down the odds list as the season progresses. They may make a late playoff push, but there will almost certainly be a better price on Dallas at various points this season. It’s a pass for now.

Minnesota Timberwolves +1000

The Timberwolves built a defensive roster capable of taking down the Denver Nuggets but were unable to find the offensive sparks needed to go any further. Their defense will be elite once again with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint, but they still lack the offense needed in the postseason. Anthony Edwards can deliver spectacular highlights, but he disappeared in the latter stages of the playoff series last season. With defense the priority for the majority of their starters, Edwards has too much on his back to consistently deliver enough offense. Minnesota will be able to clamp down on the weaker NBA teams. However, when the playoffs roll around, they will fade down the stretch. There isn’t too much hype and promise surrounding this team, and it’s honestly surprising to see them with such similar odds to the previously mentioned teams. I don’t see a clear path for the Timberwolves to win the NBA Finals. And even if I did, there will be much better prices on Minnesota this season. Pass for now, and probably pass all season long.

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Start:	November 18, 2024 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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2024-25 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

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