NBA Championship Odds with NBA Finals Best Bets and Predictions
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Just two teams remain in their quest for the 2024 NBA Championship. The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks have already won three straight playoff rounds, and both teams will be confident they have what it takes to win. For Dallas, Luka Doncic is searching for his first career NBA Championship, while Kyrie Irving would love nothing more than a crushing victory over his former employer. For Boston, they took advantage of a decimated Eastern Conference, posting a 12-2 record through the first three rounds. Both of these teams will look to etch their names in the history books, and there are a few solid betting opportunities to attack in this series.
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Boston Celtics:
The Celtics have been the NBA Championship favorites all season long, falling into the negative odds before the second round began. The Celtics have been attacked by the major media outlets, for what has been the easiest path to the NBA Finals in decades. However, Boston did their job in the regular season, securing the top seed in the league. They were rewarded with a matchup against a Miami Heat team missing Jimmy Butler, winning 4-1. In the second round, Boston took on Cleveland, who was missing Jarrett Allen for the whole series, and Donovan Mitchell for a pair of games too. Once again, a 4-1 victory. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics swept the Pacers, who were without Tyrese Haliburton for several games.
It’s not Boston’s job to make sure their opponents are healthy, and they cannot be blamed for going out and getting the job done. The Celtics were the league’s best team in the regular season, and that didn’t suddenly evaporate in the playoffs. They were consistent and made clutch shots when they were required to do so. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown won’t be breaking any NBA scoring records, but their offensive stars showed up, and did enough to punch their tickets in the Finals.
Boston is one of the deepest teams in the league, as there are no real holes in their starting five, or bench unit. Players like Derrick White have stepped up for Boston, and White’s reliability from behind the arc has been a real difference maker for Boston. The balanced scoring allows the Celtics offense to remain effective if Brown or Tatum is having an off night.
While their offense has been solid, it has been their defense that has gotten them to the NBA Finals. Jrue Holiday has been extremely impactful in his first season with the Celtics, as the former Milwaukee Buck is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. Holiday is routinely tasked with slowing down the star point guard for the opposition, and he usually is successful with that assignment. The Celtics are truly dominant on both sides of the court, and they have lived up to the expectation of NBA title favorites all season long.
Dallas Mavericks:
The Mavericks have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, and Luka Doncic finally has a legitimate opportunity to turn his years of regular season success into tangible postseason results. The Mavericks had a difficult path to the NBA Finals, as all 8 Western Conference playoff teams had legitimate hopes of lifting this year’s Larry O’Brien trophy. Dallas swatted aside the LA Clippers in the opening round, holding LA to just 100.3 PPG throughout the 6-game series. In the second round, the top seeded OKC Thunder fell to the Mavericks in 6 games, thanks to three straight triple doubles from Doncic to close out the series. The job didn’t get any easier, as the Minnesota Timberwolves awaited the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. Dallas took a suffocating 3-0 series lead before eventually closing it out in Game 5, booking their ticket to the Finals.
All eyes will be on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but it has been the Dallas defense that has transformed them into legitimate playoff threats. Dallas had a bottom half defense in the regular season before shutting the door in the playoffs. Players like Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford have done a fantastic job at clogging up the paint, while the perimeter defenders have been able to limit the open looks from behind the arc. Dallas is a very balanced team, and their ability to rotate and still effectively defend switches has been a real difference-maker. Players like Doncic, PJ Washington, and Derrick Jones are capable of defending all 5 positions, allowing Dallas to not be forced into sending help at a high frequency.
The defense has been good, but Dallas will need their offensive superstars to come to life if they are to win this one. Doncic has been hobbled over the last few weeks, and this valuable week off before the NBA Finals will help the Slovenian superstar get back to his best self for the last series of the season. Doncic is the scorer, facilitator, and engine of this offense, and there is no one with more motivation than him to lift this trophy. Unlike other Dallas playoff runs, Doncic has a reliable co-star with him on the court. Kyrie Irving is a former Celtic and will be looking to crush the dreams of his former teammates. Irving has been able to put his off-court issues behind him and has been very effective in a Dallas uniform. His ability to finish under the basket makes him borderline unguardable, as the shifty dribbler needs less than an inch of space to put up a solid shot. Dallas has what it takes to win an NBA Championship. And after emerging from a competitive Western Conference, they will be confident they can take down Boston in the NBA Finals.
Celtics vs Mavericks Series Prediction:
This is a mouthwatering NBA Finals matchup, and it’s finally time to see what Boston is really made of. It’s not the Celtics’ fault they didn’t square off against formidable Eastern Conference opposition, and they showed their ruthlessness to put their opponents away in 5 or fewer games. Boston is a worthy favorite, but it’s hard to imagine them taking down a chiseled Dallas side. The Mavericks had to fight tooth and nail to get here, and the extra rest afforded to them swung the scales back in their favor. Dallas’s improved defense will give them a fighting chance. And in clutch situations, they have an advantage. If Boston can build double-digit leads over the course of the opening 3 quarters, they will put themselves in a great position to win. However, if they allow the Mavericks to stay within striking distance, some ‘Luka Magic’ will be enough to allow Dallas to steal wins. Holiday will be tasked with slowing down Irving, and a Tatum vs Doncic matchup will attract extra eyes to this year’s Finals. Boston will split the opening two games at home, before Dallas takes a commanding 3-1 series lead. After that, I expect the Celtics to storm back, but in a winner-take-all Game 7 affair, Dallas’s superstars will extend the Celtics championship drought.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks in 7 Games
Best Bets:
The Celtics are coming in as -225 favorites to win the series, with Dallas offering a juicy +180 price tag attached to their victory. It is no surprise I am all over Dallas at this price. The Mavericks have gone through adversity en route to the NBA Finals, and that will be the pivotal difference-maker in the series. Boston has all the pressure on their shoulders. And when this series is tighter than the odds imply, it will be the Celtics that inevitably crumble. For the first bet of this series, Dallas at +180 odds is an absolute slam dunk play.
For the second bet of the series, we will be taking -190 odds on Luka Doncic to score the most points in the series. Win or lose, Doncic will be taking boatloads of shots. Holiday will do a great job at slowing down Irving, which will shift a larger share of the offensive workload on the shoulders of Doncic. Irving has no value at +1000 as this is an inflated number thanks to his former affiliation with Boston, Leaving Jayson Tatum (+250) as the biggest threat. In reality, Tatum might be the better overall scorer, as Doncic likes to pass the ball. However, the Celtics have a deep offensive roster, and Tatum will simply get less volume than Doncic on a nightly basis. Tatum may be the more efficient scorer, but that isn’t this bet. Doncic will put up more shots per game, and even at a less efficient clip, he will outscore Tatum over the course of the series.
Top Pick: Dallas Mavericks +180
Pick: Luka Doncic Top Scorer -190
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