2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Futures: Betting Strategy and Odds
by Christopher G. Shepard - 02/10/2009
The question on stock car fans minds as the 2009 NASCAR season gets ready to put the pedal-to-the-metal is if anyone prevent Jimmie Johnson from winning an unprecedented fourth consecutive Sprint Cup Championship.
If you are looking for an edge for a Sprint Cup futures wager you should stick with a team that is a proven winner. I'll use the 2008 season as an example. Last year, only six of the 21 owners found victory circle. Roush Fenway Racing (12 wins), Joe Gibbs Racing (nine), Hendrick Motorsports (eight), Richard Childress Racing (three), Gillett Evernham Motorsports (two), Penske Racing (two). Of the six teams that won all of last year's 36 races three drivers won 67 percent or 24 races; Johnson (seven wins for Hendrick), Edwards (nine for Roush) and Kyle Busch (eight for Gibbs). That's not what you call parity.
When taking a position on NASCAR futures betting I use a sound investment strategy. In reality the way NASCAR is set up it makes sense that a team like TRG Motorsports that field one driver doesn't have the resources to compete with the resources of HMS, which employs 500 people, and has stock car's equivalent of a 'dream-team' this year with Gordon, Johnson, Earnhardt, Jr., and Martin replacing Casey Mears in the No.5 car.
Therefore, my strategy is to invest the same amount on the top three drivers I like; two short money favorites and one long odds contender that has flown under the radar. Given the uncertainty of motorsports and the many drivers in which to back it's a way of leveraging the win market and hedging my investment at the same time.
Nowhere is the maxim 'money wins championships' truer than in NASCAR, and this year will be no different. Keep this decided advantage in mind before you take a position on NASCAR futures.
For my mind, though, the best part about a NASCAR futures wager is that you'll have action every weekend save two, for 36 weeks, from February-November. You may not invest in the sport every weekend, but it will certainly keep you interested during the Sports Flash.
Below is a list of why and why not my top candidates will win the 2009 Sprint Cup Championship.
Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports, 7/2
Why he'll win it: Been there, done that, ring a bell? He's the reigning three-time Sprint Cup Champion, and has the canny Chad Knaus, one of the best crew chiefs in the business, as well as a superior pit crew and team backing him. Nobody drives the Car of Tomorrow better and of all the current drivers nobody handles pressure and closes better than Johnson.
Why he won't: Two words. Carl Edwards. Edwards won nine races last year and lost the championship by 69 points. Oh yeah, he also has a cut finger that has hampered his driving. He's still trying out splints but it looks like he will be fully healed in time for The Chase.
Carl Edwards, Rousch Fenway Racing No.99, 9/2
Why he'll win it: Edwards finished 2008 runner-up to Johnson. He won nine races and closed out the Chase by winning three of the final four races. Under the old points system Edwards would have won by 16 points (and more if the team hadn't been caught cheating earlier in the season). Crew Chief Bob Osborne will make sure that Edwards continues doing back flips this year.
Why he won't: If there is anything detracting from his chances it's that Edwards can be his own worst enemy. His recklessness is legendary and some say it cost him the Championship last year. While everyone remembers the wreck he caused at Talladega, his driving in Kansas bordered on stupidity. He'll need to concentrate on race management a bit more rather than hurting himself with questionable decisions.
Kyle Busch, No. 18, Joe Gibbs Racing, 9/2
Why he'll win it: Busch was beset with bad luck from the onset of The Chase last year. His otherwise brilliant first part of the season was destroyed by three costly mechanical errors in three Chase races. His performance was not a result of bad driving. JGR thinks they've figured out what went wrong and I expect to see the 'Wild Thing' on full display this season. Remember Busch won eight of the first 22 races last year.
Why he won't: He has had bad luck and has proven in the past he can be his own worst enemy. Despite the fact that Kyle Busch went into The Chase with 70 bonus points at the points reset, that was no help when mechanical troubles and engine failures ended his Chase. If he lets his emotions get the better of him he won't stand a chance.
Kevin Harvick, No. 29, Richard Childress Racing, 20/1
Why he'll win it: Mr. Consistency had the unenviable position of replacing "The Intimidator," but eight years has passed and Harvick has never raced better. Harvick notched 13 Top-10 finishes in the final 16 races last year. If he can build upon the end of last season you'll see the No. 29 car compete in The Chase this year.
Why he won't: In only the second practice session of the season RCR has already had a blown engine in Jeff Burton's car and Harvick's has been among the slowest cars. A slow start to the season won't kill his chances, but it will make things infinitely more difficult.
MY Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, 7/2
2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion Futures Odds
Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Kyle Busch 9/2
Carl Edwards 9/2
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Matt Kenseth 15/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Tony Stewart 25/1
David Ragan 30/1
zx Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Kurt Busch 40/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Jamie McMurray50/1
Joey Logano 50/1
Brian Vickers 80/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Ryan Newman100/1
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com