Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2024 Mountain West Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 3/13/2024

Mountain West Tournament predictions Great Osobor Utah State Aggies

That’s right, boys and girls, it is that time of the year again.

Time to play one of my favorite games: “How Badly Is The Mountain West Gonna Get Screwed?”.

It is an annual rite of passage for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to absolutely screw the Mountain West and short them the at-large bids that they deserve. It happens every year. The only question is just how egregiously the selection committee will screw the Mountain West in favor of sending mediocre teams from marquee conferences to The Big Dance.

The Mountain West might be the deepest conference outside the Big 12. They have six teams – SIX! – currently ranked inside the Top 26 in the RPI, six inside the Top 36 of the NET rankings, and six teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 44. Oh, and the seventh-best team in the league, UNLV, actually finished in fourth place in the standings.

So, it would stand to reason that the Mountain West should expect to have around 5-6 bids in next week’s Big Dance.

My prediction: they will be lucky to get three.

Because the Mountain West always gets screwed.

“It’s not fair, it’s college athletics” should be the NCAA’s motto.

The Mountain West Tournament will take place at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas Nevada. The opening round is Wednesday, March 13, with the championship taking place on Sunday. The winner will earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Here is Doc’s Sports 2024 Mountain West Tournament preview and predictions:

The Favorite: San Diego State (+250)

How is this for respect: the Aztecs are the No. 5 seed in this tournament, yet the sportsbooks have them listed as the favorite to cut down the nets. Of course, it makes sense. Not only is SDSU the defending champ, but they have also made the championship game of this tournament in six straight years and have played in the final game 13 of the past 15 seasons. There’s also the fact that four of their five starters were among their top six rotation players on last year’s Final Four squad. Bet against the Aztecs at your own peril.

The Contender: Utah State (+425)

The Aggies are actually the top seed in this tournament. They head to Vegas on a five-game winning streak after an intense 87-85 win over New Mexico last Saturday locked up the outright regular season crown. Utah State won a tournament in the Cayman Islands back in November, so they have had some success on neutral sites. They will lean on one of the league’s best big men, Great Osobor, and his 17.6 points and nine rebounds per game. They also have plenty of experience in the backcourt with Utah castoff Ian Martinez and sixth-year senior Darius Brown.

The Dark Horse: Nevada (+500)

Steve Alford’s squad is riding a seven-game winning streak, and they are 10-1 since the calendar turned to February. The Wolfpack snuck into last year’s NCAA Tournament but ended the season with four straight losses. Alford is just 2-4 straight up in the MWC tourney in his career. But this group, led by Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas, has the chemistry that the past few Nevada squads have lacked. The Wolfpack are in the Top 50 in both field goal offense and field goal defense, meaning that they can win a variety of ways.

The Spoiler: Colorado State (+900)

Point guard Isaiah Stevens is one of the best players in a stacked league. And he may be good enough to drag this team through the bottom of the bracket all by himself. Colorado State gets a chance to build some momentum by hammering a weak San Jose State team. Then they will take on Nevada, a team they’ve already lost to twice this season. This Rams squad has neutral site wins over Creighton, Colorado and Washington, so they are more than capable of pumping out some much-needed W’s in this tournament. They likely need to win at least two games – probably three – to have a prayer at an NCAA tourney bid.

Bubble Team To Watch: New Mexico (+600)

At the beginning of the season, I thought the Lobos were the most talented team in the conference. And that was when they were playing without their two best players, as Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn were injured. The Lobos opened the year 18-3 and were fresh off a 34-point thrashing of Nevada. Then the wheels fell off. They are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, including an embarrassing home loss to Air Force as a 17-point favorite. They’ve lost three of their last four entering the tournament and desperately need wins to resuscitate their NCAA tourney hopes. They have talent, size and experience. Can they put it all together?

Early Round Matchup To Watch:

No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 New Mexico (11:30 p.m., Thursday, March 14)

Thursday is going to be a great day of basketball in this tournament. UNLV and SDSU will go at it, and Nevada-Colorado State should be a battle. But this Boise State-New Mexico State game could both determine who moves on in this tournament but also who gets a bid to the NCAA’s. Boise won both regular season meetings relatively easily, including a 10-point win on March 2. Boise’s three large guards, O’Mar Stanley, Tyson Degenhart and Max Rice, are a lot to deal with. But New Mexico’s trio of House, Mashburn and Donovan Dent can also do some things. This one game has huge stakes and should be a lot of fun.

2024 Mountain West Conference Tournament Predictions: Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. I think that San Diego State is a good bet to make the finals because the top half of the bracket is a little weaker than the bottom. That will require them to dispatch of the top seed, though. That said, I think that whoever comes out of the bottom of the bracket – which features Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico AND Boise State – will only survive if they are playing great basketball. And they should be ready to push the Aztecs to the limit in another great Mountain West Championship Game.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 14 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent March Madness Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers