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2023-24 Mountian West Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Picks

by Matt Zitt - 8/24/2023

Mountain West football predictions Doug Brumfield UNLV Rebels

The race to win the Mountain West will look a lot different in 2023. The West and Mountain Divisions are gone, with a 12-team, one-division setup in its place. The top two teams in the standings will meet for the conference title game. The Mountain West hopes one of its frontrunners can return the league to a New Year’s Six Bowl for the first time since 2014. Doc’s Sports will break down the Mountain West Conference below.

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The Favorite: Boise State (+180)

The Broncos are looking for their first Mountain West title since 2019. Dual threat quarterback Taylen Green returns to the offense after accounting for 2,628 total yards and 24 touchdowns in 2022. The offense's biggest concern is replacing two starters on the offensive line. The defense lost three players in the secondary and will look to maintain their conference leading 4.8 yards per play from a year ago. Look for Boise State to be on top of the standings.

The Challenger: Fresno State (+380)

Quarterback Jake Haener and receiver Jalen Moreno-Cropper guided Fresno State to the Mountain West Championship last season, but both players moved on to the NFL. With a new QB, the offense will have to find its footing early on in September. The Bulldogs allowed only 19.4 points a contest last year and should be strong again on defense with seven returning starters.

The Dark Horse: Air Force (+400)

The offense will be a work in progress early in the season, but their defense enters ’23 with little concerns. This unit surrendered only 13.4 points a game last season and opponents managed 27.9% on third-down conversions. With eight starters back on that side of the ball, this group should be the top defense in the Mountain West.

The X-Factor: San Diego State (+700)

The Aztecs found a spark offensively in the second half of ’22, mainly due to the play of quarterback Jalen Mayden. He contributed 2,261 total yards and 15 touchdowns. San Diego State’s defense should find a way to rank among the best in the conference after holding teams to 4.92 yards a snap last season. Playing Boise State and Fresno State at home is huge for the Aztec’s hopes of returning to the conference title game.

The Disappointment: Utah State (+3500)

After winning 11 games and the Mountain West title in coach Blake Anderson’s first season, the Aggies fell to 6-7 last year. The offense went from 32.6 points a game in ’21 to 22.2 points a contest last season. The defense was not much better, surrendering 31.2 points a game, up from 24.4 points a game from the previous year.

The Rest

Wyoming (+1100)

Wyoming has won at least six games over the past six full seasons. Contending for the Mountain West title is certainly in reach with the team returning 15 starters. Quarterback Andrew Peasley returns but needs to take a huge step forward after the offense averaged only 21.2 points per game last fall. The defense should be even better with 10 starters returning to the lineup.

San Jose State (+1400)

What could have been? San Jose State earned a postseason bid to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl but they could have achieved had bigger and better things, with three losses by eight points or less. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is the conference’s top returning signal-caller. He will have the luxury to play behind a very experienced offensive line. The only downside is that the Spartans have a tough draw on the schedule with Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Air Force in league play.   

Colorado State (+1600)

If the offense steps up, this could be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West. The offense averaged a pathetic 13.2 points per game last season, and the offensive line gave up 59 sacks. Quarterback Clay Millen showed flashes of potential, and they returned No. 1 receiver Tory Horton, who had over 1,100 receiving yards in ’22. The defense should be just fine and build upon a unit that gave up 19.9 points per game last fall.

UNLV (+1800)

The Rebels started ’22 hot with a 4-1 start before flaming out down the stretch, losing six of their last seven contests. That cost Marcus Arroyo his job, and enters new head coach Barry Odom. Quarterback Doug Brumfield and receiver Ricky White should thrive in this new offense, along with running back Courtney Reese, who averaged 7.2 yards per rush last season. Odom’s background on defense needs to help a unit that has finished seventh or worse in the Mountain West in points allowed every year since 2014.

Nevada (+5500)

This is another team that should improve, mainly because of the transfer portal. The Wolf Pack started last season 2-0 before losing 10 straight games to end the year. The offense averaged 18.8 points per game and the defense allowed 30.9 a contest. With six starters back on defense, that unit could take a step forward this fall.

New Mexico (+15000)

There are too many question marks and not enough proof of improvement surrounding this team. The offense averaged a mere 3.94 yards per play and did not score more than 21 points in a Mountain West game last season. The defense was also hit hard by departures, especially the defensive line and linebacker units. Expect more of the same this season.

Hawaii (+15000)

This team will be in the bottom of the standings when 2023 is all said and done. The defense gave up a staggering 34.7 points per game in ’22 and does not look like much will improve on that end of the football. They lost their best playmaker on offense from last year and have uncertainty replacing a few starters from the offensive line.

Projected Mountain West Standings

  1.       Boise State
  2.       Fresno State
  3.       San Diego State
  4.       Air Force
  5.       Wyoming
  6.       San Jose State
  7.       UNLV
  8.       Nevada
  9.       Utah State
  10.    Colorado State
  11.    Hawaii
  12.    New Mexico

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