2007 Mountain West Conference Preview
by Jordan Adams - 07/24/2007
Will 2007 be the fourth consecutive year that this league produces an undefeated league champ? Utah did so in 2004 and earned a BCS berth. The following year it was TCU in their first season removed from Conference USA. Last season we saw BYU rise to the top of the conference with its high-powered aerial attack. Now the Cougars look to defend their league crown, although the departed all-conference quarterback John Beck will leave quite a big hole unfilled for his team.
Only three teams finished above. 500 last season, but just two achieved enough to be content. While BYU took the top spot, TCU finished with an equal 11-2 overall mark in their second season in the MWC, and with one of the nation's top defenses returning this fall, the Horned Frogs look to regain their top form that vaulted them up the ladder as Mountain West champs in their inaugural season in 2005.
Behind BYU and TCU it gets somewhat hazy. Utah underachieved to the tune of an 8-5 record and were just 5-3 in the league. And after the Utes it got even worse. Wyoming did manage a 5-3 mark, but no one else finished better than even, including porous seasons from 1-7 Colorado State and UNLV.
In 2007 the MWC should again produce a top-heavy outcome. TCU, BYU and Utah will again battle it out, while not much is expected from the rest in terms of competing for a conference championship. From purely a preseason perspective, all the money suggests TCU will be the likeliest to crash the BCS party.
Teams on the Rise:
New Mexico played to another disappointing season last fall. The Lobos finished 6-7 and fifth in league play. But with a rising star in sophomore quarterback Donovan Porterie leading the offense, there is optimism on the horizon in Albuquerque. With 19 returning starters and a fairly weak non-conference schedule there's no reason not to find a winning record and a bowl berth come December.
Utah should again find itself as a major contender in the MWC. Quarterback Brandon Johnson is back from an ACL injury and will lead one of the more prolific offenses in the conference. The Utes still finished 2006 with eight wins despite their injury setbacks, and with nine men back on offense, expect a lot of points in Salt Lake City this season. Utah's biggest task will be overcoming the likes of Oregon State, UCLA and Louisville on their non-conference schedule.
Team on the Decline:
The Cougars will be in the mix all season for the league crown, but the subtraction of star quarterback John Beck will leave them well short of 11 wins and far from a second straight undefeated conference mark. BYU's biggest issue is replacing Beck. However, the offense still has playmakers on the ends and in the backfield with tailback Fui Vakapuna. Getting both TCU and Utah at home is definitely a plus.
Treading Water (hasn't done much to improve):
Wyoming is a team that will find itself in a similar situation as last season, sticking to the middle of the pack and not straying too far either way in the standings. At 6-6 in last year, the Cowboys haven't tasted a league title since 1993 and it doesn't appear like it's coming any time soon. Surely a weakness for this team is their offensive line and just two return from a group that allowed 40 sacks last year. Wyoming should be a good bet against most of the bottom feeders of the MWC. But they have challenges throughout year, especially early outside the league, so you never know which game they will be focused on the most.
Money Player (player to bet on):
The Mountain West isn't exactly a superstar league, but one person to keep your eye on is TCU defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas. His 4-2-5 scheme has been lights out and confuses the heck out of opposing offenses. Nine men are back on this unit, including all-conference players defensive end Chase Ortiz and cornerback Rafael Priest. The Horned Frog defense finished 2006 4th in total yards allowed, 5th in points surrendered, along with 31 sacks and a 32 percent third down conversion given up. Watch out, as this defense will again flourish as one of the best this fall.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
New Mexico's offense will be exciting to watch with up-and-comers Donovan Porterie under center and Rodney Ferguson at starting tailback. But they still sit behind Utah and TCU, and you might be wiser to sit back and check this unit out and see how they fair for a couple of weeks before banking on the Lobos for a key win.
Important Betting Trends:
Just as their league championship indicated, the BYU Cougars also managed to provide some nice coin for their backers in 2006. Finishing at 9-2 ATS, they were one of the biggest moneymakers across the nation. TCU proved just as tough against the number, finishing right behind the Cougars at 8-3 ATS. New Mexico and Utah both also ended last season in the black, but the lower portion of the MWC wasn't too impressive in terms of paying dividends. We'll see quite a bit of the same this year.
Potential Conference Champ:
For the second time in three years the Horned Frogs of TCU will reign as the MWC champs. BYU lost too much, albeit from just one player, to be back on top in 2007. New Mexico and Utah will attempt to play the role of spoiler, and while they'll find successful winning seasons and go bowling it will be a longshot for them to capture the Mountain West crown. With a date in Austin on Sept. 8, it will be a tall order for Texas Christian to run the table, but a league crown will put them exactly where they want to be come the new year.
Key Games:
TCU at Texas, Sept. 8 - TCU has the defense to make this a game, especially with a fairly young quarterback in Colt McCoy under center for the 'Horns. No doubt Texas will be favored at home, but how much respect will the Frogs receive from the linesmakers?
Utah at TCU, Oct. 18 - This is a must win for the Utes if they have any shot of keeping themselves in line for the conference title.
TCU at BYU State, Nov. 8 - Simply put, the loser is done and the winner keeps playing. Almost like a single elimination bracket, we'll see another undefeated champ.
Predicted order of finish:
TCU, BYU, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, UNLV.