MLB Handicapping: Most Profitable Ballparks for Totals Bettors

by Matt Jacob - 6/23/2023

Most profitable pitchers for betting Blake Snell San Diego Padres

Among the many elements of baseball that set it apart from all other sports is the fact that no two ballparks are alike.

While every NFL field, NBA court, NHL rink and soccer pitch has uniform dimensions, each MLB stadium has its own personality.

These unique characteristics — from outfield depths to wall heights to the amount of space allocated for foul territory — lead many venues to be labeled as “hitter’s parks” and “pitcher’s parks”.

But are these labels consistently accurate? The short answer is yes — for the most part.

However, that doesn’t mean every pitcher’s park is prone to low-scoring games and every hitter’s park regularly produces high-scoring slugfests.

Allow us to explain in the following breakdown of this year’s top Over and Under ballparks.

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MLB Ballparks: ‘Over’ Bettors Scoring at The Trop

Fact: Ballpark factors matter and should be incorporated into an MLB bettor’s daily handicapping strategy — just as oddsmakers incorporate such factors when setting Over/Under totals.

Also a fact: Roster quality — that is, offensive production and pitching acumen — has a bigger impact on Over/Under results.

Look no further than the Tampa Bay Rays and their home, Tropicana Field. Long regarded as a pitcher friendly ballpark, The Trop has produced more “Overs” this season (27) than any other venue heading into Friday’s action. In fact, more than two-thirds of the games played at The Trop this season have hurdled the posted total (27 Overs, 13 Unders, 1 push).

No, the Rays didn’t bring the fences in at their drab stadium. Nor has the team’s usually stellar pitching staff fallen off a cliff.

Rather, Tampa’s hitters are absolutely raking, averaging 5.55 runs per game overall and 5.85 runs per game at home. And the Rays’ 120 home runs rank second only to Atlanta in all of baseball.

Only two teams have scored more runs in their home ballpark than Tampa: The Texas Rangers, who are pounding out a whopping 6.41 runs per game at Globe Life Field, and the Boston Red Sox, who are posting 5.87 runs per contest at Fenway Park.

Texas is right behind the Rays in the Over/Under standings at 22-11-4 (66.7%), while Boston sits sixth (23-15-1, 60.5%).

What about MLB’s most notorious hitter friendly park — Coors Field in Denver? It actually has produced more Unders this season (18) than Overs (17). That 17-18 mark puts Coors Field in the middle of the Over/Under pack (16th).

There are two primary reasons Coors Field hasn’t been delivering for Over bettors. First, oddsmakers — per usual — are inflating totals in the Mile High City. Second, the Rockies’ offense has been as productive as years’ past.

Yes, Colorado is one of seven MLB teams averaging more than 5 runs per game at home (5.14). But that average was 5.63 last season and 6.17 in 2019 — both MLB highs.

MLB Ballparks: ‘Under’whelming Results in Cleveland, San Diego

There’s a long-held theory in baseball related to run production, and it goes like this: As the summer months arrive and temperatures skyrocket, baseball bats heat up, too.

Rest assured, fans in Cleveland and San Diego are hoping this theory holds water in 2023. Because only the downtrodden Oakland A’s are averaging fewer runs at home this season than the Cleveland Guardians (3.58). And only the A’s, Guardians and Washington Nationals have been more offensively inept at home than the San Diego Padres (3.70).

Throw in the fact that the pitching staffs for both the Guardians (3.34 ERA) and Padres (3.48) have been dynamite at home, and you can see why 66.2% of all games played at Cleveland’s Progressive Field and San Diego’s Petco Park have stayed Under the total.

Of course, Petco has been heaven for pitchers — and a nightmare for hitters — since it opened two decades ago. However, with a lineup that includes the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, most baseball experts figured the 2023 Padres would score runs in bunches, regardless of venue.

That hasn’t happened. In fact, San Diego’s overall 46-26-3 Under mark is tops in baseball.

Similar to the Padres, the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies are loaded with big bats. Yet that quartet’s home ballparks slot right behind Cleveland and San Diego in terms of profitable Under venues.

Not coincidentally, the Blue Jays (22nd), Mets (21st), Yankees (17th) and Mets (16th) all rank in the bottom half of the league in runs per game at home. Also, each of those squads but the Mets ranks in the top seven in home ERA.

MLB Ballparks: Pay Attention to the ‘Total’ Picture

Pitching, hitting, ballpark dimensions, weather, altitude — they all play an integral part in the outcomes of MLB totals. But it’s important not to discount the role MLB oddsmakers play, too.

Just like bettors, they can be a bit stubborn and slow to make adjustments. At the same time, with the exception of Coors Field, oddsmakers will only go so high (or low) when posting a total. So astute bettors who do their homework can definitely pinpoint opportunities to pounce on soft MLB totals at various ballparks.

That said, with three months remaining in the regular season, it’s important to remember that — as with most things in sports betting — extreme variances have a way of evening out over time.

To that point, not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, only eight ballparks have hit the 60% Over/Under threshold in the last five seasons. Those ballparks:

2017: Cleveland (60.0% Under)

2019: Pittsburgh (62.7% Over)

2019: Miami (60.3% Over)

2021: Arizona (61.0% Over)

2021: L.A. Dodgers (60.8% Over)

2021: Detroit (60.8% Under)

2021: N.Y. Mets (60.0% Under)

2022: Detroit (60.8% Under)

Currently, a dozen MLB stadiums have seen the Over or Under cash in more than 60% of games. History and logic tell us that number will plummet before we flip the calendar to October.

Top Six MLB Over Ballparks in 2023

Tropicana Field (Tampa Bay Rays)

Over/Under record: 27-13-1 (67.5%)

Globe Life Field (Texas Rangers)

Over/Under record: 22-11-4 (66.7%)

Truist Park (Atlanta Braves)

Over/Under record: 25-13-1 (65.8%)

Comerica Park (Detroit Tigers)

Over/Under record: 23-13-0 (63.9%)

Busch Stadium (St. Louis Cardinals)

Over/Under record: 20-13-1 (60.6%)

Fenway Park (Boston Red Sox)

Over/Under record: 23-15-1 (60.5%)

Top Six MLB Under Ballparks in 2023

Progressive Field (Cleveland Guardians)

Over/Under record: 24-11-1 (68.6%)

Petco Park (San Diego Padres)

Over/Under record: 23-13-1 (63.9%)

Rogers Centre (Toronto Blue Jays)

Over/Under record: 19-11-2 (63.3%)

Citi Field (New York Mets)

Over/Under record: 20-12-0 (62.5%)

Yankee Stadium (New York Yankees)

Over/Under record: 25-16-0 (61.0%)

Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia Phillies)

Over/Under record: 17-11-4 (60.7%)
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