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MLB Team Totals Betting: Advice and Handicapping

by Matt Jacob - 6/26/2023

MLB team total betting Pete Alonso New York Mets

Have you ever handicapped a Major League Baseball matchup and loved a particular side but hated the price oddsmakers were offering? If you’ve been an MLB bettor for more than a minute, the answer undoubtedly is “yes”.

For decades, bettors who faced such a conundrum essentially were limited to two choices — make the bet at less-than-ideal odds or pass. Now? There are multiple ways to wager on baseball beyond the traditional sides and totals.

One increasingly popular option is MLB team totals — that is, betting the Over or Under on the projected number of runs a squad will score in a given game.

Below we explain how and why to bet MLB team totals and run down baseball’s highest- and lowest-scoring ballclubs this season.

Doc’s Sports offers MLB expert picks for every game on our baseball predictions page.

MLB Team Totals: Understand Your Options

A quick check of Monday’s six-game MLB slate reveals four monster favorites, all laying odds of -180 or higher. Perhaps you like some (or all) of these favorites but your juice limit in MLB is -160 — and you also aren’t keen on betting favorites on the run line (-1.5 runs).

Or perhaps you like an underdog (or two) but aren’t fully convinced they can pull off the upset (or simply don’t believe oddsmakers are offering enough value to make the wager).

This is when you might consider jumping into the MLB team totals market.

Instead of laying upwards of -200 on a favorite or risk playing the run line, you could bet the favorite to go Over its projected run total — say, 4.5 runs. That way, if your team’s bats show up and deliver at least five runs, you cash your ticket — even if the pitching staff falters.

The upshot: Rather than laying a big price on the side, you’re laying modest juice (maybe -115 or -120) on a team total bet. Most importantly, you don’t have to sweat the game’s outcome because it’s inconsequential to your wager.

Now, let’s say you like an underdog because of its starting pitcher but don’t trust said underdog’s offense to produce enough runs. You could bet Under the team total on the favorite and/or underdog. And if you really believe a pitchers’ duel will materialize, you also could throw in a wager on Under the full-game total.

For example, if the favorite’s team total is 4.5 runs, the underdog’s team total is 3.5 runs, and the full-game total is 8 runs, you can place equal-size Under wagers on all three. If the favorite wins 4-3, you collect on all three bets. And even if the final score ends 6-1, you still go 2-1 on your bets and pocket some profit.

MLB Team Totals: Turn Knowledge into Profits

As noted in one of the above examples, vigorish is attached to each team total, similar to a full-game or 5-inning total. But it usually stays within a reasonable range (i.e., -140 to +120).

Obviously, it’s better for the overall health of your bankroll to lay -130 on a favorite to go Over its team total than it is to make a -200 moneyline wager on a favorite to win. But, of course, there’s risk attached to such a bet — in this case, that risk is the favorite does indeed prevail but in a low-scoring game.

This is why it’s important to handicap this particular derivative as extensively as you would any other baseball bet. Among the factors to consider before placing an MLB team totals wager:

• Does a team’s offense consistently produce runs, or does it run hot and cold?

• Does a team’s offense perform better (or worse) in certain situations — for instance, home/road, day/night, returning from an off day, coming off a long road trip, etc.?

• Does a team’s offense take advantage of subpar starting pitchers and/or struggle against high-end aces?

• Do certain hitters in the lineup have strong/weak career numbers against a starting pitcher (or strong/weak career numbers playing in certain ballparks)?

• Does an opponent’s starting pitcher have a good/poor history against the team he’s facing and/or the ballpark he’s pitching in? Is that history recent, or does it span years?

• Does an opponent’s pitching staff have a strong or weak bullpen?

• What’s the status of an opponent’s bullpen coming into a game — are the relievers fresh or running on fumes?

• What impact, if any, will weather have at outdoor ballparks?

MLB Team Totals: Who’s Running Hot and Cold?

When Major League Baseball instituted a slew of rule changes prior to the start of the 2023 season, one of the goals was to generate more action. The ultimate intended effect: boost scoring.

So far, mission accomplished.

Heading into Monday’s action, 17 of MLB’s 30 teams are averaging more runs per game than they did in 2022. And three of those teams — the Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels — have seen their production increase by more than one run per game.

Atlanta’s offense has been particularly prolific of late, tallying at least five runs in 17 of the last 20 games, including 11 of the last 12.

Likewise, the Cincinnati Reds — who are coming off a weekend home series against the Braves in which the teams combined for 47 runs — are on a heater. Cincinnati has totaled five-plus runs in eight consecutive games and 11 of the last 14.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the anemic Oakland A’s have been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games. Same goes for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 12 of their last 15 contests.

Then there are the New York Yankees, who haven’t exactly been living up to their Bronx Bombers nickname of late. In 18 games since slugger Aaron Judge went down with a toe injury early this month, the Yankees have scored four runs or fewer 14 times, three runs or fewer 12 times and topped five runs just once.

For the season, the Yankees are averaging 4.35 runs per game. That’s down more than a half run from last year, when New York ranked second in MLB at 4.89 runs per contest.

That’s the biggest year-over-year run-production drop in MLB.

Here’s a look at the top teams at both ends of the run-scoring rankings.

MLB Team Totals: Highest-Scoring Teams

1. Texas Rangers

Average runs per game overall: 5.95

Average runs per game at home: 6.41

Average runs per game on the road: 5.53

2. Tampa Bay Rays

Average runs per game overall: 5.57

Average runs per game at home: 5.86

Average runs per game on the road: 5.22

3. Atlanta Braves

Average runs per game overall: 5.56

Average runs per game at home: 5.51

Average runs per game on the road: 5.61

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

Average runs per game overall: 5.31

Average runs per game at home: 5.33

Average runs per game on the road: 5.29

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Average runs per game overall: 5.18

Average runs per game at home: 4.78

Average runs per game on the road: 5.61

MLB Team Totals: Lowest-Scoring Teams

1. Oakland A’s

Average runs per game overall: 3.50

Average runs per game at home: 3.05

Average runs per game on the road: 3.90

2. Detroit Tigers

Average runs per game overall: 3.74

Average runs per game at home: 4.05

Average runs per game on the road: 3.41

3. Kansas City Royals

Average runs per game overall: 3.78

Average runs per game at home: 4.18

Average runs per game on the road: 3.40

4. Cleveland Guardians

Average runs per game overall: 3.92

Average runs per game at home: 3.54

Average runs per game on the road: 4.32

5. Miami Marlins

Average runs per game overall: 4.00

Average runs per game at home: 3.90

Average runs per game on the road: 4.11

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