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2024 MLB Season Win Totals Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/31/2024

MLB season win totals predictions Fernando Tatis Jr. San Diego Padres

Baseball is… almost back. We are just weeks away from players reporting to their Spring Training facilities and just about eight weeks away from Opening Day. We have had a lot of noise this offseason, mainly around the Los Angeles Dodgers reeling in two Japanese phenoms in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. Not only that, but the Yankees acquired Juan Soto and signed Marcus Stroman in an attempt to return to relevancy. As we near the start of the season, it is time to take a look at future odds for win totals and division, league, and World Series winners. In this article we will see how American League and National League teams are shaping up by analyzing their win total projections, as the excitement for the season begins to grow across the states.

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Arizona Diamondbacks – 83.5 Wins

This appears to be a low number for the defending National League champions. However, when you take a closer look, they won only 84 games last season, they have to play the Dodgers quite a bit, and they actually had a negative run differential last year. They did, however, add Eduardo Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Joc Pederson, and brought Lourdes Gurriel Jr. back. I like this team to snag another wild card, especially with the Giants and Padres failing to get better.

My pick: Over 83.5

Atlanta Braves – 100.5 Wins

Luckily for the Braves, the postseason has nothing to do with this total. This is one of, if not the most, complete roster in the MLB. They got deeper by adding Chris Sale and possibly Reynaldo Lopez to the rotation and strengthened the bullpen signing Angel Perdomo and acquiring Aaron Bummer. The Braves will win over 100 games again this season.

My Pick: Over 100.5

Baltimore Orioles – 88.5 Wins

After a Cinderella season, the Orioles fell victim to the dreaded first round bye and lost to the eventual World Series Champs in last year’s playoffs. They will head into this season hoping to return to the playoffs by way of internal progress. They did add Craig Kimbrel to strengthen the bullpen, but it was a rather quiet offseason in Baltimore. It is worth noting that the Orioles also were 30-16 in one-run games last season. They need to add Blake Snell. However, until they add another upper-tier arm, I am on the southside of the win total.

My Pick: Under 88.5

Boston Red Sox – 80.5 Wins

There is a lot of noise in Boston right now about whether or not the Red Sox is even trying to be competitive at this point. With questions surrounding their front office leadership, the club failed to improve during the offseason and instead opted to pay the Braves to take Chris Sale off their hands. However, the clubhouse presence may have improved slightly when they traded OF Alex Verdugo to the Yankees and replaced him with Tyler O’Neil from the Cardinals. This is a bad team with no direction. They may not be as bad as the Patriots, but it will be an ugly showing once again.

My Pick: Under 80.5

Chicago Cubs – 83.5 Wins

Last season, the Cubs were just one game out of the second wild card spot. Their +96-run differential was better than every National League postseason team not named the Braves or Dodgers. Their EXWL was 91-71 in 2023. And with reinforcements like Shota Imanaga, Hector Neris, and Michael Busch paired with the likelihood of bringing Cody Bellinger back, the Cubs will win the NL Central.

My Pick: Over 83.5

Chicago White Sox – 63.5 Wins

While it is rumored the White Sox are asking for the moon in order to part ways with Dylan Cease, it is only a matter of time before someone pays the price. Tim Anderson, Liam Hendriks, and Mike Clevinger are gone, and the only improvement is the flier on Mike Soroka. Hard to imagine the lineup got worse after managing just 641 runs last season (29th in MLB). It is likely that Eloy Jiminez, Luis Robert Jr., and Cease’s days in a White Sox uniform are numbered.

My Pick: Under 63.5

Cincinnati Reds – 81.5 Wins

The Reds have a young and exciting core of position players, but their pitching is very questionable. They addressed their rotation by adding Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas, which is not enough to save a rotation that posted a 5.43 ERA. Maybe they aren’t done adding to the rotation, but I definitely expect to see this team regress this season.

My PickL Under 81.5

Cleveland Guardians – 77.5 Wins

Of all the win total predictions, this one feels like one of the easiest to make. The Guardians will give this season a go. However, once things go south, it will be a clearance sale in Cleveland. The rotation is young and will be competitive, but it would be silly to not deal Shane Bieber and maybe even check and see what they could get for Jose Ramirez.

My Pick: Under 77.5

Colorado Rockies – 60.5 Wins

The National League basement dwellers added SP’s Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson this offseason. That’s it… and no disrespect to those guys, but that just isn’t much of an improvement plan after winning just 59 games last season. Expect another rocky season for the Rockies.

My Pick: Under 60.5

Detroit Tigers – 80.5 Wins

In the ever so weak AL Central, it is possible to see the Tigers compete for the division title. It hurt seeing Eduardo Rodriguez depart to Arizona, but they took low risk fliers on Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, and Kenta Maeda. They also added Mark Canha to add pop to the lineup. I like the Tigers to sneak past the 80-win mark.

My Pick: Over 80.5

Houston Astros – 92.5 Wins

The bullpen received a huge boost when the Astros brought in coveted closer Josh Hader. This was a much-needed move after losing Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. With the core largely intact, the expectation is another run at a title. They will add if necessary and be one of, if not the, best team in the American League this season, making the over on this win total a solid bet.

My Pick: Over 92.5

Kansas City Royals – 72.5 Wins

Adding Kyle Wright is a sneaky good move by the Royals but one they will have to wait a year to benefit from. However, by adding veterans like Garrett Hampson, Will Smith, Seth Lugo, Chris Stratton, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Wacha, and Adam Frazier the Royals are likely to see great improvement on their 56 game win total a season ago or at least have some guys to sell in the summer. Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans are set to prove they are the real deal, and this Royals team will exceed expectations this season.

My Pick: Over 72.5

Los Angeles Angels – 71.5 Wins

The biggest move of the offseason was bringing in Ron Washington as the team’s new manager. His winning ways will be good for a club that is defeated from losing Shohei Ohtani to their cross-town rivals. They reshaped the bullpen, but their lineup will be a big question mark this season, especially if Trout and Rendon fail to stay healthy. However, I think this team finds their way to the north side of the win total.

My Pick: Over 71.5

Los Angeles Dodgers – 104.5 Wins

The Dodgers had the type of offseason we only see in video games. The acquisitions of Yamamoto, Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Teoscar Hernandez, along with the hopeful return of Walker Beuhler and Gavin Lux, reinforce a team that won 100 games last season. This is the best team in baseball and will be for many years to come.

My Pick: Over 104.5

Miami Marlins – 78.5 Wins

This team was lucky to get into the playoff picture as their record was well above their expected performance. There was little movement by the Marlins this offseason, as their only significant move was acquiring Christian Bethancourt, which will only soften the blow of losing Jorge Soler’s bat. The Marlins play in the toughest division in baseball and will be without their ace, Sandy Alcantara, for the year. It will be a long season Miami.

My Pick: Under 78.5

Milwaukee Brewers – 78.5 Wins

With Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames floating around in trade rumors, along with Brandon Woodruff being let go, it is reasonable to think that the Brewers are one cold stretch from punting on the season. Adding Rhys Hoskins will be a good boost for their lineup. However, after ranking 23rd in OPS a season ago, they will need to add some more pieces or hope young phenom Jackson Chourio gives them some significant production.

My Pick: Under 78.5

Minnesota Twins – 86.5 Wins

It has been an odd offseason for the Twins as the defending AL Central winners have not only lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle, but they also traded away 2B Jorge Polanco, who was a solid contributor to the offense last season. They benefit from playing in the worst division in the MLB. And for that reason alone, I am leaning towards the over. Health will be an X-factor for their stars once again.

My Pick: Over 86.5

New York Mets – 82.5 Wins

The Mets swung and missed on all the big free agent targets this season and had to settle for the likes of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Harrison Bader. The Mets were a huge disappointment last season, failed this offseason, and will now have to try and compete with the division titan Braves and the Phillies. They will finish below .500 again.

My Pick: Under 82.5

New York Yankees – 93.5 Wins

Despite winning only 84 games last season, the Yankees actually performed better against their expected record. They added some solid left-handed hitters in Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Trent Grisham and added Marcus Stroman to the rotation. However, the rotation is still a question mark ahead of this season as the club lost Luis Severino, Domingo German, Michael King, and Frankie Montas. They may improve on last year’s total, but I am not sure this is a 90-win team.

My Pick: Under 93.5

Oakland Athletics – 57.5 Wins

The A’s are set to begin the campaign with little, if any, improvements on a club that was one of the worst in the game’s history. After a 50-win season, Oakland added Alex Wood, Migual Andujar, Abraham Toro, and Trevor Gott. A’s fans, if there are any, you know the drill, hit the fast-forward button and hope Vegas is better for the franchise.

My Pick: Under 57.5

Philadelphia Phillies – 90.5 Wins

The Phillies are another team that had an underwhelming offseason. They did fend off the Braves and other clubs by ultimately winning the Aaron Nola sweepstakes, but that sums up their entire offseason. They are heading into this season without an established closer. However, with the Mets and Marlins failing to become more competitive, the Phillies will be the best non division winning ballclub in the postseason.

My Pick: Over 90.5

Pittsburgh Pirates – 74.5 Wins

The Pirates were only eight games out of the second wild card spot this last season, but they were six games better than their expected record and were five games over .500 in one-run contests. They added a few veteran pieces in Aroldis Chapman, Martin Perez, and fan favorite Andrew McCutchen, but it is wishful thinking to see them win 75 games or more this season.

My Pick: Under 74.5

San Diego Padres – 81.5 Wins

Michael King improves the Padres rotation, but losing Juan Soto and Trent Grisham significantly weakens the lineup. Oh, and Josh Hader and Blake Snell are gone. Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go were solid wins for San Diego in the international pool. However, as we near the end of the offseason, the lineup is still questionable. The Padres will go from unlucky last season, to simply bad this season.

My Pick: Under 81.5

San Fransisco Giants – 81.5 Wins

The Giants extended their losing ways throughout the offseason after missing out on big names like Ohtani and Yamamoto, while also losing significant offensive pieces in Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, and Mitch Haniger. The pitching staff lost Anthony DeSclafani, Sean Manaea, Alex Wood and Jakob Junis. The Giants will remain below .500 once again this season.

My Pick: Under 81.5

Seattle Mariners – 86.5 Wins

The Mariners are in a great position to usurp the Astors and Rangers heading into the season. They replaced Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez with Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Luke Raley, and Mitch Haniger. The rotation is one of the most underrated group of starters out there, and they are anchored by Andres Munoz’s electric arsenal. There are some high expectations for this club heading into the season.

My Pick: Over 86.5

St. Louis Cardinals – 85.5 Wins

The Cardinals pitching staff ranked 23rd in the MLB with a 4.47 ERA and 24th with a 1.40 WHIP, while their offense ranked just 19th in runs scored. They addressed the pitching concerns by adding Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge, but they did nothing with their lineup. Paul Goldschmidt’s golden years are behind him. And other than Nolan Arenado, there is no one else scaring you in this lineup.

My Pick: Under 85.5

Tampa Bay Rays – 85.5 Wins

The AL East will shape up to be one of the most interesting division races this season. However, the Rays will regress. They will be without Shane McClanahan for the season due to Tommy John surgery, while they shipped off Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot to the Dodgers. Additionally, Wander Franco’s future is clouded with uncertainty ahead of the season. They have the promise of some young prospects, but don’t expect this team to win 99 games this season.

My Pick: Under 86.5

Texas Rangers – 89.5 Wins

The defending World Series Champions have reshaped their bullpen and are in good position to defend their title. They added Tyler Mahle to the rotation, while reinforcing the bullpen with Kirby Yates and David Robertson while also taking fliers on multiple veteran arms. The rotation will miss Jordan Montgomery. However, if Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer stay healthy, this club will be competitive once more.

My Pick: Over 89.5

Toronto Blue Jays – 87.5 Wins

Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, and Whit Merrifield are gone and have been replace by Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner. Their rotation is back in full-force, and their bullpen was improved with the signing of Yariel Rodriguez. With the Rays likely to take a step-back, there are a few extra wins to go around.

My Pick: Over 87.5

Washington Nationals – 66.5 Wins

The Nationals are waiting for prospects to mature and more and more cap space to become available. Adding Dylan Floro and Joey Gallo give the Nats some trade pieces in the summer, but this team will be competing with the Rockies for the worst in the National League.

My Pick: Under 66.5

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