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2023 MLB MVP Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL

by Joey House - 3/31/2023

MLB MVP odds predictions Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels

One down, 161 more to go. For the first time in 55 years, every team played on Opening Day. Will Aaron Judge be the first back-to-back American League MVP since Miggy Cabrera, or will Shohei Ohtani reclaim his throne as the most dominant player in the Junior Circuit? With three of the top six players with the lowest odds on the board, will a San Diego Padres player win the MVP, or will a present or former Dodger player bring home the hardware for the most valuable player in the Senior Circuit? Whoever it is, you can count on Doc Sports to give you not only the favorites but those juicy longshots that can fatten a bankroll.

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American League Most Valuable Player Odds

Shohei Ohtani +200

It is difficult to adequately describe Shohei Ohtani's abilities. Superlatives such as “amazing” and “incredible” when a player hits 40 home runs or overpowering and dominant when a pitcher can throw 100 mph or strike out 200 hitters. What do you say when a player can do all three of those things? You say that you have been lucky enough to witness perhaps the greatest baseball player of all time. As long as he stays healthy, Ohtani will probably be the favorite for this award for the foreseeable future. 

Aaron Judge +500

It would take a Ruth-ian kind of year to unseat Ohtani as the AL's reigning MVP, and that is exactly what Aaron Judge delivered. With the new rules implemented this season, Judge could see a fairly significant increase in his average, giving him a better chance to repeat even though he could have a "down" year of only 40 homers. 

Mike Trout +650

It's hard to believe that Trout is going into his 13th year in the big leagues and will be 32 years old this August. I grew up in the '80s with great outfielders like Eric Davis, Dave Winfield, Andrew Dawson, and Darryl Strawberry. Trout is probably my favorite non-pitcher of all time. But father time seems to be catching up to him. And while he's still a phenomenal player, I don't think he's worth this low of a price.

Bo Bichette +4000

While voters will deny this to the end, being part of a relevant team helps tremendously when winning any sort of MVP award. The Blue Jays are expected to contend for the AL East crown, along with the Yankees. Bichette could be a major reason why. He's led the American League in hits the past two seasons, and those numbers should go higher with the anti-shift rule in effect this year. If his stolen base numbers increase with the larger bases used this season, he has the potential for .320, 25 HRs, 100 RBIs, and 30 SBs, which would be comparable to Trout's 2016 MVP or McCutchen's 2013 win.

Julio Rodriguez+800
Yordan Alvarez+1100
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+1200
Jose Ramirez+1600
Kyle Tucker+2000
Adley Rutschman+2500
Corey Seager+3000
Rafael Devers+3000
Byron Buxton+3000
Wander Franco+3500
Carlos Correa+3500
Alex Bregman+4000
Luis Robert+4000
George Springer+5000
Giancarlo Stanton+5000
Jose Altuve+5000
Marcus Semien+6600
Jose Abreu+6600
Tim Anderson+8000
Bobby Witt Jr,+8000
Jeremy Pena+8000
Jacob deGrom+8000
Teoscar Hernandez+8000
Randy Arozarena+8000

National League Most Valuable Player Odds

Juan Soto +550

Compared to the heavy favorite AL Race, the National League MVP race seems like a lottery where anyone could win it. There is incredible value in many of these selections. For the third year in a row, Soto begins the season as the favorite to win the MVP. Not bad for someone who's only 24 and has been in the league for five years. Now that he's settled in after being traded in the middle of the season, many expect a big bounce-back season, but I don't think that bounce warrants the low odds. Better value elsewhere.

Mookie Betts +900

A perennial favorite among the voters (he's been in the top 20 in 7 out of his 8 full seasons in the majors, winning the AL MVP in 2018), Mookie's major power metrics have improved in his two full seasons with the Dodgers. Unfortunately for him, this power surge has been at the expense of his average. Hitting 35 homers while batting .269, which is what he did last season, just isn't going to bring home many individual rewards. Pass.

Ronald Acuna Jr. +900

One of the brightest gems in the Braves organization, was on track for a monster season in 2021 when he tore his right ACL in the middle of the season. His power was still limited last year as he openly talked about his knee feeling "terrible", as his slugging pct. and OPS were almost 200 points lower than his pre-injury stats. A healthy Acuna could be the catalyst to a deep Braves run, bringing him a world of attention. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. +1000

Coming back from his 162-game suspension, the lineup will be that surrounds Tatis is greatly enhanced, with Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Matt Carpenter. However, once baseball writers get a sniff of anything that they dub "detrimental to the game", they won't touch you with a ten-foot pole. If he keeps his nose squeaky clean this year, maybe next year he'll warrant these odds. But not this season.

Paul Goldschmidt +1000

How often is it that you can get a reigning champion at 10-1 odds? Clearly, the oddsmakers don't think Goldschmidt is an Albert Pujols, who was the last National League back-to-back MVP, ironically with the Cardinals. The lineup didn't change drastically from the year before. And as long as Nolan Arenado protects him in the order, Goldschmidt can still put up big numbers.

Trea Turner+1000

He’s coming off of the World Baseball Classic, where opposing pitchers couldn't stop him, they only hoped to contain him (and they didn't do that very well, as he had five home runs in 23 at-bats, hitting for an average of .391 over 6 games and an OPS of 1.483). Coming over to the Phillies this year, Turner has the benefit of a dangerous lineup behind him, forcing pitchers to come at him. A lifetime .287 hitter in the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, his season should only get better when Bryce Harper returns to the lineup in a couple of months.

Manny Machado+1200
Nolan Arenado+1200
Freddie Freeman+1300
Pete Alonso+1400
Austin Riley+1600
Francisco Lindor+2500
Matt Olson+2500
Xander Bogaerts+3000
Kyle Schwarber+4000
Michael Harris+5000
Ozzie Albies+6600
Bryce Harper+6600
Jazz Chisholm Jr.+6600
Sandy Alcantara+6600
Oneil Cruz+6600
Dansby Swanson+8000

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