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2024 MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Expert Betting Picks

by Matt Zitt - 2/20/2024

MLB home run leader odds Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

New York Yankees super star Aaron Judge is the favorite to lead Major League Baseball in home runs for the 2024 season. Behind him are a few familiar names, including the reigning home run king Matt Olson, 2019 leader Pete Alonso, and two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani. Olson’s title in 2023 was the NL’s first since 2019, and there has not been a back-to-back winner since Jose Bautista accomplished that feat in 2010 and 2011. Doc’s Sports will look at the current betting odds to emerge as baseball’s home run king for the upcoming season.

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Aaron Judge, New York Yankees +350

ALL RISE!!! Oddsmakers are expecting a huge year from Judge as the current favorite to lead the league in homers. The issue for him is staying healthy. Judge played in 106 games in 2023, but he still almost cleared 40 homers. Judge has led the big leagues in home runs just once throughout his eight-year-career, which was his historic 2022 season when he knocked out 62 dingers. Despite the injury narrative, he did play in 157 games in 2022 and 148 in 2021. If he can avoid missing significant time in 2024, Judge can justify the short price tag.

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves +600

Unlike Judge’s injury narrative, Olson is the closest thing this generation has to an iron man. No one in MLB has played in more games since the beginning of 2020 than Olson. The left-handed hitter smoked 54 long balls in 2023, and it makes sense he only trails the Yankees superstar in terms of odds. He was 99th percentile in both average exit velocity (93.7) and hard-hit rate (55.5%). Olson also sat in the 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.558). No one has repeated as the home run king since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011, but Olson possesses the skills to take home the hardware again in 2024.

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies +3000

Harper has never led the league in homers during his career, but his overall power can make him a real threat in 2024. He struggled to generate home runs after Tommy John surgery in 2023, hitting three home runs in his first 56 games. Once fully healthy at the end of the year, he clobbered 18 long balls over the final 70 games before adding five more in the postseason. The Phillies have permanently moved him to first base, allowing him to focus more on offense and less energy into the defensive side of his game.

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers +4500

I love this price tag for the Rangers’ outfielder. The 30-year-old is still in the middle of his prime and has a crazy amount of raw power. He launched 39 homers in the 2023 season and followed that up with eight more in the playoffs. His approach at the plate is perfect for someone looking to tally a bunch of homers. His 46.9% fly ball rate was the 12th-highest among qualifiers and his 16.1% barrel rate was the seventh-highest. It also does not hurt that Garcia will get to face the Oakland A’s pitching staff 13 times in 2024.

Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins +7000

The No.1 pick in the 2017 draft has struggled to stay healthy long enough to show fans his tremendous potential. It was finally on display over the final two months of 2023 and the playoffs. The 24-year-old returned from injury in mid-August and hammered 11 homers over his final 32 contests. He then hit four homers in six games in the AL Wild Card Series and ALDS. If he can play 140+ games, look for 35+ home run potential and a dark horse in the 2024 home run race.

2024 MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Aaron Judge +350 – Matt Olson +600 – Pete Alonso +700 – Kyle Schwarber +750 – Juan Soto +900

Shohei Ohtani +900 – Yordan Alvarez +1200 – Fernando Tatis Jr. +1900 – Austin Riley +1900

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +2200 – Ronald Acuna Jr. +2200 – Mike Trout +2200 – Rafael Devers +2500

Jorge Soler +2800 – Bryce Harper +3000 – Corey Seager +4500 – Adolis Garcia +4500

Jazz Chisholm Jr. +5000 – Luis Robert Jr. +5500 – Kyle Tucker +5500 – Julio Rodriguez +5500

Francisco Lindor +5500 – Jose Ramirez +6000 – Gunnar Henderson +7000 – Royce Lewis +7000 

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