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MLB Division Winners Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks

by Mike Allen - 2/16/2024

MLB division winners predictions and odds Jose Altuve Houston Astros

Major League Baseball's first Spring Training game is now just a week away. I am absolutely elated, especially as an Atlanta Braves fan. It's been a long offseason after losing to the Philadelphia Phillies the same way for the second year in a row.

You might be surprised to see the betting odds on the winner of the NL East, though, as the Braves are substantial betting favorites at (-290) to win the division. I guess this is reassuring, but I’m not completely sold.

More on the Braves and Phillies in a few. We have division winner betting odds and predictions for the entire league, though, so let's take the bat off our shoulders and take a few hacks.

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AL East Predictions

New York Yankees: +130

Baltimore Orioles: +220

Toronto Blue Jays: +440

Tampa Bay Rays: +650

Boston Red Sox: +1400

This one surprised me the most! The books, along with some statistical models I've come across, are both projecting the New York Yankees to bounce back to their historic winning ways this season.

Aaron Judge is returning. Losing him for the second half of last year was devastating. Why, though? Why was it so bad? I know he is one of, if not the, best hitters in the game, but he is still just one player who makes an out ⅔ of the time.

Adding someone like Juan Soto, who once again led the majors in walks last year, could be the move that puts the Yankees over the top. That wasn’t the case, however, in San Diego.

The AL East is projected to pump out 4 if not 5 teams with a record better than .500. The division was good last season, and they will probably be the best once more. I see the Rays regressing and the Red Sox respectable.

That leaves the Blue Jays as the value pick, but I am all in on the Orioles in this spot. They brought in Craig Kimbrel to close from the bullpen. He is one of the best of all time at what he does. Adding Corbin Burnes from the Brewers solidifies the starting rotation, and the team is so young that we can project their skills will progress.

Pick: Orioles (+220)

AL Central Predictions

Minnesota Twins: -140

Detroit Tigers: +350

Cleveland Guardians: +400

Kansas City Royals: +1000

Chicago White Sox: +3800

The Cleveland Guardians can’t hit for power. They were dead last in home runs in 2023 with an atrocious 124. The Washington Nationals were 29th, and they hit 151. That is taking small ball down to a level it should never reach.

The Detroit Tigers are still at least a couple of years away from reaching their potential as a young team.

Minnesota is the juiced favorite here to win the AL Central for good reason. They are the most talented team in the division, they won it last season, and I like a dome baseball team's home-field advantage.

It reminds me of the Seattle Mariners from the 90s. They know the outfield so well, and the ball scoots on that turf much faster than somewhere like Wrigley Field.

I am picking the Twins here as favorites, but don’t let that lead you to believe that I have a ton of faith in them. It is more of a fade on the rest of the division.

Pick: Twins (-140)

AL West

Houston Astros: -105

Texas Rangers: +200

Seattle Mariners: +300

Los Angeles Angels: +4500

Oakland Athletics: +25000

The AL West is one of the MLB's best divisions. With the resurgence of the Seattle Mariners last season, along with the battle that ensued down the stretch of the regular season only to culminate in the ALCS between the Astros and Rangers, the league is now on notice that it isn't just Houston they need to worry about.

The Astros just re-signed Jose Altuve, which is great. However, the possibility of losing Alex Bregman to free agency precipitates as the days pass.

The Texas Rangers are now defending World Series champions after smoking the Arizona Diamondbacks in October. This team is outstanding and statistically was only short of the Braves last season.

Seattle may make a push, but with similar odds to Texas, I have to go with the Rangers.

Pick: Texas Rangers (+200)

NL East

Atlanta Braves: -290

Philadelphia Phillies: +330

New York Mets: +1200

Florida Marlins: +2700

Washington Nationals: +12000

The Braves might be broken. I love them much more than any other sports team, but the playoffs were brutal last year. I may be on a sparsely inhabited island here, but I say Brian Snitker has got to go.

The players aren’t going to come out and say it, at least not yet, but he did not prepare his team for battle in the postseason. After one of the most spectacular record-setting regular seasons in MLB history, they were gone in 4 games…just like the year before to the same team.

That team is my pick to win the NL East. To be getting better than 5 points difference on these two teams is outlandish.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+330)

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers: -600

Arizona Diamondbacks: +1000

San Diego Padres: +1300

San Francisco Giants: +1500

Colorado Rockies: +20000

We will do the NL West now, so as not to be anti-climactic as we wrap up the predictions. This one is pretty obvious. After signing Shohei Ohtani, the LA Dodgers have ballooned up to (-600) betting favorites to win the division.

The Diamondbacks and the Padres are pretty good teams, but it’s hard not to believe 2024 could be the Dodgers’ year.

Pick: LA Dodgers (-600)

NL Central

St Louis Cardinals: +140

Chicago Cubs: +240

Cincinnati Reds: +410

Milwaukee Brewers: +550

Pittsburgh Pirates: +1600

If only the Cincinnati Reds had better pitching…

This is what I was telling myself after a silly midseason stab on them to win the NL Central. Ely De La Cruz may turn out to be one of the league's largest stars, but he may also turn out to be a bust, as pitchers started to figure him out towards the end of the year.

I believe in the kid, though. The Reds may not win the division, but I don’t think other MLB squads are looking forward to facing them, especially in Cincy.

The Brewers being projected as 4th place finishers is surprising, that is until you realize they lost 3 of their starting 5 pitchers, an area that was undoubtedly their strength.

For only (+140), I can’t get behind the Cardinals, at least not yet. I’m sure there will be some point throughout the 162-game regular season when they will have better odds than that.

This division is probably more wide open than any other. If Cody Bellinger re-signs with the Cubs, their odds will take a hit. I have heard rumors that starting pitcher Blake Snell might make a move to the Windy City.

I will take the Cubs now and maybe hedge later in the season if the Cardinals live up to expectations.

Pick: Cubs (+240)

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