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2024 MLB Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL

by Joey House - 5/30/2024

MLB Cy Young Award odds and predictions Spencer Strider Atlanta Braves

As we're in an election year, let's liken the Cy Young Award race to a presidential election. With 50 games played, pitchers in both leagues have begun actively campaigning for the prestigious honor. The competition is fierce, as these pitching stars strive to set themselves apart from the field of deserving candidates. Just like any election, there's an element of unpredictability—a "certainty of uncertainty." Early front-runners may face unexpected challenges, such as slumps in performance or untimely injuries, while dark horse candidates might surge ahead, gaining momentum with each strong outing. This dynamic makes the race thrilling and highlights that it is truly a challenging season-long campaign.

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We'll take a look at some of the early front-runners vying for the award, including their current odds to win, as well as their preseason odds if they had any. For references to the Wins Above Replacement metric, or WAR for short, I used the Fangraph edition, vs the Baseball-Reference version.

American League Canidates

At first glance, it would seem that the dark horses reign supreme in the American League, with the disappearance of two preseason favorites, Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, from the mid-season ballot. However, upon closer inspection, exactly half of the preseason Top 10 list for the American League Cy Young are in the current top 10 of lowest odds.

Tarik Skubal- Detroit Tigers (+1800/+270)

6-1 2.25 ERA 60 IP 41 Hits 10 BB 72 K 4 HR 0.850 WHIP

Skubal has been delivering outstanding performances, leading the American League in WHIP and securing the second spot in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Despite losing his first game in his 10th start of the season, he has consistently been striking out batters, with his lowest number of strikeouts in a game being five. Skubal's primary challenge may come from his team, the Detroit Tigers, who are currently hovering around a .500 record at 26-27. It's crucial for the Tigers to finish above .500, as the last time an American League Cy Young winner was on a losing team was back in the 2010 season with "King" Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners, which was 14 seasons ago.

Tanner Houck- Boston Red Sox (N/A/+1100)

4-5 1.90 ERA 71 IP 57 Hits 13 BB 69 K 1 HR 0.986 WHIP

One of the upstart candidates coming out of left field, Houck has quietly climbed up the polls and now is sitting behind only Skubal and Corbin Burnes of the Orioles for lowest odds in the American Cy Young race. He's 2nd in the American League in ERA and tied with three other pitchers for the most quality starts at nine. His 2.5 WAR is tops among starting pitchers with qualifying innings. He's also been the recipient of some bad luck, as the 6 unearned runs tacked onto his stats are the second-most among American League starters. As he is one of the few pitchers who have previously put up strong numbers throughout a whole season, Houck's price of +1100 represents fantastic value.

Cole Ragans- Kansas City Royals (+2800/+1200)

4-3 3.34 ERA 62 IP 50 Hits 21 BB 76 K 3 HR 1.145 WHIP

Ragan is one of the up-and-coming power pitchers (4th in the AL starters in 4-seam average fastball velocity) and has generated a lot of excitement with his electric arsenal of pitches. His control issues have always been his biggest detriment and as such inflates his WHIP, which is still 21st of all American League starting pitchers. His other advanced analytics are mixed, with a stellar 29.8% strikeout percentage and an unlucky .303 batting average of balls in play (BABIP). His walks are actually a career low for Ragans, so it's unlikely they'll decrease. If he can get a little luckier with his BABIP, he may be able to lower his ERA and make himself more attractive as a nominee for the A.L. Cy Young Award.

Top 10 A.L. Cy Young Odds

1- Gerrit Cole (New York):+550 - Tarik Skubal (Detroit):+150

2- Kevin Gausman (Toronto):+700 - Corbin Burnes (Baltimore):+425

3- Framber Valdez (Houston):+750 - Cole Ragans (Kansas City):+1300

4- Pablo Lopez (Minnesota):+1200 - Tanner Houck (Boston): +1100

5- Luis Castillo (Seattle):+1300 - Logan Gilbert (Seattle):+1800

6- George Kirby (Seattle):+1700 - Luis Castillo (Seattle):+1200

7- Tarik Skubal (Detroit):+1800 - Seth Lugo (Kansas City):+1600

8- Dylan Cease (Chicago):+2500 - Joe Ryan (Minnesota):+2000

9- Logan Gilbert (Seattle):+2500 - Jack Flaherty (Detroit):+2500

10- Cole Ragans (Kansas City):+2800 - Luis Gil (NY Yankees):+3500

National League Candidates

It is remarkable how similar the situation of the field of National League candidates is to that of the American League. Both of the preseason favorites to win their respective leagues are no longer currently pitching this season, and five of the preseason favorites are still in the top 10 of shortest odds.

Zack Wheeler - Philadelphia Phillies (+750/+270)

6-3 2.32 ERA 73.2 IP 47 Hits 23 BB 85 K 5 HR 0.950 WHIP

Ever since joining the team as a free agent during the COVID-19 season, Zack Wheeler has been the standout performer in the Phillies' pitching staff. His remarkable success may not be easily accepted by Philadelphia fans, given his history with the New York Mets. However, Wheeler has established himself as the undeniable number-one starter in the Phillies' rotation. Despite staff mate Ranger Suarez having better stats, Wheeler may have an advantage from a gambling perspective as he is a proven season-long commodity. Wheeler's ERA last season was 3.61, the only year above 3.00. He stays relatively healthy, making 26+ starts in all three of his full seasons with the Phillies (in the COVID-19 year, he started 11 times). His analytics are impressive: Tied with Chris Sale for the NL lead in WAR with 2.2, second in the league in strikeouts, and his 9 Quality Starts are tied with Logan Webb for the best in the NL. While his walks are slightly elevated compared to his historical numbers, Wheeler has established himself as the frontrunner to win the NL Cy Young, and for good reason.

Ranger Suarez- Philadelphia Phillies (N/A/+900)

9-1 1.75 ERA 72 IP 43 Hits 16 BB 77 K 5 HR 0.819 WHIP

Suarez showed glimpses of this brilliance last season, when he was the Pitcher of the Month in June, with a 1.35 ERA. His late-season collapse in September is helping to keep his odds inflated a bit, which started the season well north of +10000 if you could find them and are now still only the 5th-lowest. However, last season Suarez was dealing with some nagging injuries that were aggravated by the preseason World Baseball Classic. He is the only National League pitcher with an ERA under 2.00, with a 1.75 ERA. He and teammate Aaron Nola make up two-thirds of the NL pitchers that have thrown a shutout. Another area of concern is the strength (or lack thereof) of the Phillies' schedule so far. The teams that Ranger has faced don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of pitchers. Having said that, at +500 right now, Suarez represents fantastic value and barring any unforeseen occurrences, should be in the mix at the end of the season.

Tyler Glasnow- Los Angeles Dodgers (+1500/+950)

6-3 3.04 ERA 74 IP 46 Hits 21 BB 95 K 7 HR 0.905 WHIP

While it's not a prerequisite, one of the things that benefits pitchers in their quest for a Cy Young Award is being on a winning team. Glasnow, who has always been a power pitcher, leads the league in strikeouts and now has everything else coming together to make him a force to be reckoned with. Glasnow represents good value in that the Dodgers will most likely win the West in a cakewalk and are a very public team, keeping Glasnow's exploits in the limelight.

Current Top 10 N.L. Cy Young Odds

1- Spencer Strider (Atlanta):+500 - Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia):+330

2- Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia):+750 - Shota Imanaga (Chi Cubs):+350

3- Logan Webb (San Francisco):+900 - Ranger Suárez (Philly):+500

4- Sandy Alcantara (Miami):+500 - Chris Sale (Atlanta):+700

5- Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee):+1100 - Tyler Glasnow (LA Dodgers):+750

6- Zac Gallen (Arizona):+1200 - Max Fried (Atlanta):+2000

7- Max Fried (Atlanta):+1300 - Dylan Cease (San Diego):+2200

8- Kodai Senga (N.Y. Mets):+1500 - Logan Webb (San Francisco):+2000

9- Justin Steele (Chicago):+1500 - Zac Gallen (Arizona):+2500

10- Aaron Nola (Philadelphia):+1800 - Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee):+1500

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