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2024 Minnesota Twins Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/26/2024

Minnesota Twins predictions Joe Ryan

Summary of Last Season

The Minnesota Twins finished with an 87-75 record last season, claimed the AL Central division title, and would fall to Houston in the Division Series three games to one. Minnesota will once more look to control the weakest division in baseball as they know their only chance at a playoff berth comes through clinching the division. Despite being 12 games above .500, the Twins were seven games below their expected record of 94-68. A big factor in that was their 19-27 record in one run games.

The Twins also did this without their best player, who missed a big chunk of the season thanks to injury. However, the star-less lineup had production from top to bottom with 12 players having 40 or more RBIs and another four players with more than 30 RBIs. Max Kepler (66) and Carlos Correa (65) led the way in RBIs, with Kepler, Michael Taylor, and Joey Gallo being the only Twins to record more than 20 homeruns. Kepler would also lead the team in runs scored (72) and his 2.9 WAR.

Despite what they had to give up getting him, grabbing Pablo Lopez from Miami ended up being beneficial to the Twins. Lopez led the team with 194 innings pitched and 234 strikeouts. Sonny Gray’s 2.79 ERA and 5.4 WAR led the rotation. Minnesota also had a deep pitching staff, with all five starters showcasing durability, recording over 100 innings, and a bullpen anchored by Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, and Emilio Pagan, who all posted sub three ERAs.

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Minnesota Twins Key Additions/Losses

Unfortunately for the Twins, they lost a lot this offseason and did not do much to replace the departures. Headlining the list of departures is the clubs ace in Sonny Gray, who, along with Michael Taylor, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo, Dallas Keuchel, and Donovan Solano, left via free agency. That list combined for a WAR of 12.4. Additionally, the Twins also traded second baseman Jorge Polanco to Seattle, increasing the departed WAR mark of 14.4.

The return on Polanco was significant, as the Twins added Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa to a depleted staff, while also acquiring two prospects. The club also brought in relievers Josh Staumont and Steven Okert, while signing veteran first baseman Carlos Santana to a one-year deal, hoping to replace the pop of Gallo, Taylor, and Polanco.

Minnesota Twins Prospect Outlook

The Twins second and third ranked prospects in shortstop Brooks Lee and outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez headline the list of prospects at big league camp. Other prospects at camp with the Twins include pitchers David Festa (10th), Simeon Woods Richardson (17th), Matt Canterino (18th), as well as utility players Austin Martin (20th), Yunior Severino (28th). Woods Richardson is the only prospect to have recorded time with the big-league club last season.

Recent graduate Royce Lewis, as well as young guns Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, Willi Castro, and Alex Kirilloff, will look to continue to impact the Twins success despite being 26 years old or younger.

Minnesota Twins X-Factors

Byron Buxton- Seeing Buxton on the IR has become a frequent frustration for not only Twins fans, but fans around the league as this once highly-touted prospect has failed to bud into the projected star he was said to be. However, his health this season is a huge X-Factor for the Twins, who lost a lot of production at the plate and don’t seem to have many reinforcements internally. Buxton arrived at camp saying he hasn’t felt better, but only time will tell.

Joe Ryan- After Gray’s departure, it is Joe Ryan time. Similar to the style of Gray, Ryan has had proven success at the big-league level. In 61 starts, he has a 4.05 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Now at 27-years-old, it is time for the righty to break into ace form. Pablo Lopez may take the first spot in the rotation, but Ryan has the highest ceiling on the staff. And, like Buxton, he will be leaned on even more with all the holes created by the offseason.

Minnesota Twins Expectations

Win now. The Twins may not be able to maintain their competitive windows for long, compared to the likes of the Dodgers, Phillies, or Yankees, so the time is now. The Twins are once again the favorites in the AL Central and should find themselves atop the division standings at season’s end. However, they need to turn their attention from the weaker division foes to the likes of the Yankees, Astros, Rangers, Mariners, and Orioles and build the roster in a way to stay competitive to those outside the division. Minnesota has some talent in the farm system they can ship off to add more production at the deadline, which is a likely scenario as the front office should be all in.

Minnesota Twins Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +2000

Pennant Winners- +900

Division Winners- -140

AL MVP- Byron Buxton- +6500

AL Cy Young- Joe Ryan- +4500

Minnesota Twins Predictions

They win the AL Central but will likely see another early playoff exit. Unless they add more at the deadline. Buxton needs to stay healthy and produce, while Lewis and Kepler need to repeat their production from a season ago. However, I do think the Twins win more than their projected win total of 87.5 and at +900 to win the AL, there is value to take now before this team inevitably adds more firepower.

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