2024 Miami Marlins Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/5/2024

Summary of Last Season

The Miami Marlins put together a decent showing despite having little offense. The Marlins posted an 84-78 record, finishing third in the NL East, and claimed the second wild card spot in the playoffs. Miami was swept in the Wild Card Round by Philadelphia, thus ending their somewhat magical run to reaching the playoffs. Miami did finish with a -57-run differential on the year and was the only playoff team, along with Arizona, to have a negative run differential. One of the biggest reasons the team reached the playoffs was their incredible 33-14 record in one-run games, the best in the MLB.

The subpar offense was led by none other than Luis Arraez, who slashed a historic line of .354/.393/.469 on his way to a 4.9 WAR. He would also tally 10 homeruns and 69 RBIs. Jorge Soler’s 36 homeruns were good for the team lead, as he was the only one to hit more than 20. Soler also recorded 75 RBIs, second to Bryan De La Cruz, who led the team with 78 RBIs while also hitting 19 homeruns. Jazz Chisholm Jr led the club with 22 stolen bases and was tied with De La Cruz for second on the team with homeruns at 19. Miami ranked 19th in the MLB in OPS, 26th in runs, 22nd in homeruns, 23rd in stolen bases, and 27th in walks.

As for the pitching, the team was led by the solid trio of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, and Braxton Garrett, who were the only pitchers to record more than 100 innings. Though Alcantara was penciled in as the team’s ace, Luzardo had the best season of any starter, as he posted a 3.63 ERA and struck out a team-leading 208 batters. Alcantara had a 4.14 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 3.4 WAR before being injured. Garrett and youngster Eury Perez broke out for Miami this season. Garrett had a 3.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 30 starts, while Perez had a 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an impressive 10.6 K/9 ratio across 19 starts. A.J. Puk and Tanner Scott formed a decent duo out of the bullpen, as the two combined for 27 saves, while Scott posted a 2.31 ERA and a .99 WHIP. As a team, Miami ranked 16th in ERA and WHIP, 5th in strikeouts, and 14th in homeruns allowed.

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Miami Marlins Key Additions/Losses

Miami had a rather quiet offseason. Yuli Gurriel, David Robertson, Joey Wendle, Matt Barnes, and Johnny Cueto all became free agents at season’s end. Outside of those few role players, Miami had a positive offseason, and their offense should be in much better shape going forward.

To start, Josh Bell exercised his player option, and the big first baseman will plug into the middle of the Marlins lineup. Miami also added Christian Bethancourt from Cleveland and grabbed Nick Gordon from the Twins. They also signed Tim Anderson and Trey Mancini. Outside of the bats, Miami brought in Yonny Chirinos, Matt Andriese, and Devin Smeltzer to provide more depth to the rotation.

Miami Marlins Prospect Outlook

With a lack of leadership and direction in the front office, the Marlins are not really set up for the future like some teams around the league are. While they do have some guys who are budding into stars like Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett, there is a lack of prospect depth.

Max Meyer (3rd) is a candidate for NL Rookie of the Year, especially if he finds his way into the rotation early on this season. Along with Meyer, infielder Jacob Amaya (5th), outfielders Victor Mesa Jr. (6th) and Dane Myers (13th), along with pitchers Anthony Maldonado (23rd) and Josh Simpson (25th) are all expected to get a decent workload throughout spring training and could land on the opening day roster.

Miami Marlins X-Factors

Offensive Vets- Miami now has two former batting champions leading their lineup in Luis Arraez and Tim Anderson. Behind them, veteran slugger Josh Bell, do it all speedster Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Bryan De La Cruz. This is a veteran team that needs to perform well at the plate this season.

Pitching Depth- On paper, there is a lot of it. However, there is a big hole at the top of the rotation, with Alcantara being out. And though Jesus Luzardo was the better arm last season, it was a career year. Braxton Garrett is also slated to miss some time with an injury, meaning A.J. Puk will be listed in the rotation unless there is a breakout in spring camp. Eury Perez and Luzardo will need to repeat their showing from a season ago.

Miami Marlins Expectations

Snag a wild card. The Marlins play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, with the Braves and Phillies set for a dog fight for the top of the division. Miami doesn’t need to focus on the division title and set their eyes on a wild card spot, knowing anything can happen in the playoffs. When healthy, the rotation is competitive, and the lineup has the potential to perform as well. If Miami has a good start, look for the front office to move some prospects to bring in some more bats and shore up the bullpen.

Miami Marlins Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +9000

Pennant Winners- +4500

Division Winners- +2700

NL MVP- Luis Arraez- +7000

NL Cy Young- Jesus Luzardo- +3000

NL Rookie of the Year- Max Meyer- +4000

Miami Marlins Predictions

Right now, the Marlins have +300 odds to make the playoffs, and their projected win total sits at 77.5. I like the odds of +300 and could see this team make the playoffs again this season and the over 77.5 seems like a great bet. The offense should be much improved, and the rotation will only get healthier. This is a dark horse club to keep an eye on this season. Look for Tim Anderson to have a big year and for Jake Burger to smash 40 homeruns as they lead the offense with Luis Arraez and Josh Bell.

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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2024 Miami Marlins Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

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