2024-25 Miami Heat Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/9/2024

The Miami Heat have been perennial Eastern Conference contenders despite lacking a bona fide superstar on their roster. Jimmy Butler has been able to dial it up to another gear in the postseason but now finds himself in an Eastern Conference brimming with superteams. Can the Heat continue to defy expectations, or will their aging squad limp across the line this season?

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Miami Heat Offseason Recap

Miami had a relatively quiet offseason, as they feel confident in running it back with their current roster. The most significant departure for the Heat was Caleb Martin moving to the Philadelphia 76ers. Martin was a great asset for the Heat off the bench and was instrumental to their shock run to the NBA Finals in 2023. Martin’s ability to heat up in an instant made him the perfect backup guard, frequently providing a spark to a Heat offense that occasionally would cool off. The incoming class of rookies for Miami made it essential to offload someone, and Martin was the piece they elected to ship away.

Injuries disrupted the Heat’s season last year, as they lost Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler for long stretches last year. While Herro isn’t technically an offseason addition, if the young guard can stay healthy this year, it will feel like a new arrival for the Heat.

Miami Heat Season Expectations

The Miami Heat have trained their fan base to only worry about the postseason. They have consistently finished in the bottom half of the playoff positions but have still been able to make deep playoff runs. Since 1950, only 11 teams have reached the NBA Finals after finishing the regular season in the 4th seed or lower in their conference. The Heat represent two of those improbable Final runs, doing so as the 5th seed in 2020 and the 8th seed in 2023. While they were unable to walk away with a championship in either of their tries, Butter and co. know they have what it takes regardless of their regular season status.

The Heat have a win total of 44.5 wins and are a heavy favorite to be competing in the play-in tournament. They have the talent on their roster to finish ahead of teams like the Hawks, Bulls, and Raptors, but lack the offensive scoring to beat teams like the Knicks, 76ers, and Bucks. Miami looks destined to finish in the 6th to 9th seeds in the East, which would give them an extremely difficult path to the Finals.

Miami has a superstar tandem in Butler and Bam Adebayo, but it is clear defense is still head coach Erik Spoelstra’s priority. Spoelstra is the consensus best coach in the NBA, as he is always able to get the most of his lackluster rosters. Adebayo inked a 3-year, $165 million dollar extension in the offseason, as Spoelstra continues to put his faith in the center to lead Miami. Adebayo missed only 11 games last year. However, despite his on-court presence, his offensive stats slightly dipped from the season prior. He decided to start shooting three pointers at a rate never seen before in his career, and as a result he was unable to get a dosage of high percentage looks under the basket. Butler is a unique guard in the modern-day NBA, and the Heat will need their interior players to remain efficient if they are to have a positive regular season.

Miami Heat Schedule Breakdown

The Heat have no choice but to get off to a hot start, as their season starts with matchups against the Hornets, Pistons, and Wizards in the first five games of the season. They are then hit with their longest road trip of the year immediately following that stretch, taking on the Suns, Nuggets, and Timberwolves during their six-game trip. Their early season road trips allow them to finish the year with a whopping 18 of their final 26 games played at home. This could give them the momentum they need heading into a potential play-in tournament situation.

Miami Heat Odds

Just like most seasons, the oddsmakers have figured out that just because the Heat are serious championship threats, doesn’t mean they will prioritize the regular season. Despite their consistent postseason success, the Heat have finished with over 44.5 wins only twice in the last 8 seasons. Injuries have had a big role to play, but something about the Heat’s play style allows them to turn it up in the postseason. They have +4000 odds to win the championship, but the NBA Cup could be the more effective market to attack.

Miami is +275 to finish on top of an East Group B that features the Bucks, Pacers, Raptors, and Pistons. Miami’s defense could allow them to upset the Bucks and Pacers, and it’s hard to see the Pistons or Raptors unlocking the Heat’s brick wall named Adebayo in the paint. They have the 18th best odds to lift the NBA Cup at +4000, which will be dramatically slashed if the Heat can escape the group stage alive.

2024-25 Miami Heat Season Predictions and Best Bets

Miami has been a difficult team to get a read on, but the NBA Cup is a tournament built for the Heat. Head coach Spoelstra will cook up a unique defensive gameplan for their opposition, and Miami has the roster needed to pull off upsets in the single elimination format. If the bulk of their roster can stay healthy during the tournament, Miami could pull off the upset at +4000 odds. The Bucks (+1200) and Pacers (+2500) are both in Group B with Miami but offer far less upside to make a deep run after emerging from their wide-open group. Betting on any regular season Miami Heat props is just a shot in the dark, as it truly wouldn’t surprise me to see the Heat finish 33-49 or 55-27. A small sprinkle on the Heat to finish with 55+ wins at +1000 is worth a bet, as this is truly a ‘boom or bust’ team.

Pick: Miami Heat 55+ wins +1000

Top Pick: Miami Heat to win NBA Cup Group B +275

Pick: Miami Heat to win the NBA Cup +4000

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 2:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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2024-25 Miami Heat Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

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