2024 PGA Picks: Mexico Open Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
The West Coast swing has come to an end, where we saw Hideki Matsuyama put together a magnificent final round to capture The Genesis Invitational title on Sunday. He is the seventh straight golfer to win at odds of 70-1 or greater with five winners at 180-1 or better. Now, the PGA Tour heads to Mexico, where we find one of the weakest fields of the entire season. Most players take this week off to gear up for Florida. Tony Finau upstaged Jon Rahm in last year’s Mexico Open, and there is no doubt that he is the overwhelming favorite to repeat. Doc’s Sports will break down some of the best bets for this upcoming week at Vidanta Vallarta.
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A Look at the Field
Here is a look at the Top 12 and ties with the lowest golf odds to win it all at online sportsbooks
Tony Finau +750 – Nicolai Hojgaard +1600 – Emiliano Grillo +2200 – Stephan Jaeger +2200
Thomas Detry +2500 – Taylor Pendrith +2500 – Thorbjorn Olesen +2800 – Keith Mitchell +2800
Patrick Rodgers +3000 – Ryan Fox +3500 – Erik Van Rooyen +3500 – Davis Thompson +3500
Course Characteristics of Those Who Can Win or Secure Winning Golf Bets
Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman designed course with super wide fairways and very minimal rough. It is an extremely long course that benefits long-ball hitters. It measures in at 7,456 yards and plays at a par 71. Vidanta Vallarta has some of the longest par 4s and 5s on the entire PGA Tour yet played as the 12th easiest course. The greens feature Paspalum grass.
Tony Finau +750
With the withdrawal of Will Zalatoris, there is not one person in this field with the skill set to match Finau. He enters this week playing some solid golf, finishing with a T6 at Torrey Pines and then T19 last week at Riviera. This is the third edition of the Mexico Open, and Finau has dominated the first two installments with a runner-up in 2022 and then his victory last season. Over the past 16 rounds compared to everyone in this week’s field, Finau ranks No. 1 in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking. To clarify how dominant Tony has been here, he is averaging a crazy 3.51 SG: Tee-to-Green per round at Vidanta Vallarta. The next closest is averaging 1.61. There is no shame in taking Finau at a short price tag this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard +1600
A favorite must win eventually, right? Hojgaard fits the mold of a long-distance hitter that should succeed at this course. He had a mediocre debut at the Genesis Invitational, making the cut and finishing T39. His form has been above par and is top-25 in driving distance. Hojgaard finished 2nd on the longer Torrey Pines course at the Farmers Insurance Open and is currently in the top-10 in this field on approach shots from 175+ yards. He also has a victory on the DP World Tour on a course with Paspalum greens.
Mark Hubbard +5000
Our longshot pick of the week is 50-1 Mark Hubbard. He has had a very consistent start to the 2024 season, making the cut in all five tournaments that he has competed in. He has a T4 at Pebble Beach and 20th at Torrey Pines. His iron play has been superb, as he ranks fifth in this field in SG: Approach over his past 16 rounds. He picked up a T18 at this event last season and due to the large width of the fairways, his iron-play should take center stage.
Golf Picks: Who to Consider This Week:
To win: Finau, Hojgaard, Hubbard
2024 season total: +805
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