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2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 10/9/2024

Memphis Grizzlies predictions Ja Morant

The Memphis Grizzlies have been plagued with off-court issues in recent years, but it appears as though they are finally poised to make a deep playoff run. A healthy, rehabilitated Ja Morant will have a chip on his shoulder this year. However, is it too much to expect such a dramatic turnaround from the Grizzlies so soon?

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Memphis Grizzlies Offseason Recap

Memphis was relatively quiet in the offseason, as it was very difficult to properly evaluate their roster last season due to several key injuries. The front office decided to hold tight, sign some free agents for depth, and instead prioritize their three draft picks. 

The Grizzlies selected Zach Edey with the ninth overall pick and plan to slot him directly into the starting lineup. Edey is a towering 7-foot-4 at 22 years old and has all the tools needed to seamlessly transition from college to the NBA. He was one of the most dominant college players in recent memory. His ability to score, facilitate and rebound from the interior is something rarely seen on a basketball court. His mobility remains a major concern, as if he gets switched onto in the open court he will get cooked. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart are both mobile defenders who can guard all five positions. They will be able to cover for Edey against most teams, but there will still be some matchups that will make Edey a huge liability on the court. 

Memphis Grizzlies Season Expectations

The Grizzlies are expected to nearly double their 27 wins last season and have a win total of 47.5 wins. The Grizzlies didn’t make many offseason signings, with only Edey joining their roster. However, this will look like a very different Memphis squad from what we saw last season. Their expected starting five played 9, 20, 42, 66, and 0 games in the NBA last season. The Grizzlies were plagued with injuries and off-court issues, but they are set to seriously challenge for top spot in the Western Conference. 

Ja Morant has had an up-and-down NBA career so far. He joined the Grizzlies in 2019 and was steadily improving through the first three seasons of his career. However, he was suspended for 8 games in 2023 for flashing a gun on Instagram Live. Just two weeks later, he was suspended for a second time, this time for 25 games after doing it again. After sitting out for the first 25 games last season, Morant was only able to play 9 games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. 

Morant holds the keys to this team. His explosivity is second-to-none in the NBA, as his ability to gain speed and throw down monster dunks propelled him to superstardom. It feels as though Morant’s prime was wasted with injuries and suspensions, but he is still only 25 years old. He will be the leading scorer for the Grizzlies once again this year, as he will look to push for 30 PPG for the first time in his career. 

Morant doesn’t have to do it alone, as the Grizzlies have several other stars returning from injury this season. The 2022 DPOY Marcus Smart had his first season with Memphis derailed by injuries, but he is looking to get back to his former self this season. His tenacity on the defensive end will allow the Grizzlies to slow down the talented guards in the Western Conference. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. is a frontrunner for the DPOY award this season, which makes Memphis an extremely strong defensive team. Memphis will be able to clog up both the perimeter and the paint this season. And with Morant leading the way offensively, the Grizzlies have everything it takes to make a deep playoff run. 

Memphis Grizzlies Schedule Breakdown

Memphis has the opportunity to get off to a hot start, as their first five opponents are the Jazz, Rockets, Magic, Bulls, and Nets. With a majority of their starters coming back from long injuries, Memphis will greatly benefit if they can get some early wins on the board. To wrap up the year, Memphis plays 9 of their final 14 games away from home. Tough road games against the Kings, Thunder, Heat, and Nuggets have the potential to spoil a late season playoff push. 

Memphis Grizzlies Odds

The Grizzlies have a win total of 47.5 wins, something a fully healthy Memphis roster is certainly capable of achieving. Prior to their injury and suspension filled season last year, the Grizzlies rattled off 51 and 56 victories in the two previous regular seasons. Ja Morant is absolutely capable of leading this team to a top playoff seed, and the lack of postseason success has made bettors forget about how good the Grizzlies really are. Their defense is among the best in the league, and the tinkering they have done to their roster appears ready to pay dividends.

Memphis is expected to have a solid regular season, but the oddsmakers are not giving them much of a chance at a deep playoff run. They have +4000 odds to win the championship, which puts them tied for the 8th highest odds in the Western Conference. 

2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies Season Predictions and Best Bets

This is a fantastic time to buy low on the Grizzlies heading into the season. Memphis will be able to quickly dispel fears that their lost season last year will carry over into this season by getting off to a hot start against weak opposition. They got 50+ wins in back-to-back seasons, and there is absolutely no reason they can’t do so again here. I expect the Grizzlies to finish with a 51-31 record, easily surpassing their 47.5 win total. In fact, an even better bet to make is for the Grizzlies to get 50+ wins at +160 odds. The +160 vs -110 odds will make a big difference for our payout, as the only way you would get burned is if the Grizzlies finish with exactly 48 or 49 victories. However, the story changes in the postseason. I have to agree with the oddsmakers that the Grizzlies strong defense will carry them to numerous regular season wins, but in the playoffs they will fall short. I wouldn’t touch any of the playoff props until we see how the team functions as a unit. If they get off to a strong start, the +4000 odds may dip slightly but there will still be a great price on a potential Memphis championship. 

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies Over 47.5 Wins -110

Top Pick: Memphis Grizzlies 50+ Regular season wins +160

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