March Madness Upset Predictions for 2024 NCAA Tournament - First Round
It's that time of year when everybody becomes a basketball pundit and prognosticator when they fill out their brackets in hopes of fame and a piece of Warren Buffet's fortune. Upsets and "Cinderella teams" are as much of March Madness's legacy as hearing Dickey V say "That's AWESOME BABYYYYY!!"
There is a way to capitalize even further on the guaranteed unexpected: taking your upset selections on the money line. Every veteran sports gambler knows that 52.4% is the break-even point in sports betting when betting a -110 line. But change that number to a +115 or a +150, and now suddenly you can win less than 50% and still be profitable. There is no better place than the NCAA Tournament to find this hidden value. Here are a few underdogs with the potential for massive payouts.
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No. 11 Oregon (-102) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (-1) Thur. 4 PM (EST)
This is one of the lines in the opening round that show how poor a job the selection committee did (one of the other 6v11 seeded matchups has 6-seed Clemson as the underdog). South Carolina's offense is in the bottom 40% in terms of scoring and even lower in turnovers per game (10.1 TOV which is 319th in the nation). Oregon feasts on pilfering, averaging 7.2 steals per game (99th in the nation). While the odds are a little lower than we would have liked, it's that way for good reason.
No. 12 UAB (+225) vs. No. 5 San Diego State (-7) Fri. 1:50 PM (EST)
This is one of the fabled 5v12 matchups that handicappers and bracketologists love, and Docs wrote an entire article on it. San Diego State is still receiving adulation for last year's magical run. While their defense is still playing at an elite level (66.6 ppg-37th in the nation), they're only 219th in effective field goal percentage. UAB averages 11.1 offensive rebounds per game, which should lead to winning the second-chance point battle. This game tips off at 10:50 AM (PST), and that might cause the Aztecs to come out a little on the slow side. This game is a staple of many handicapper's "dog picks," as they believe UAB will cover the spread. At +225, the Blazers to win outright might deserve a little sprinkle on top.
No. 11 Duquesne (+360) vs. No. 6 BYU (-9.5) Thur. 12:45 PM (EST)
This is an intriguing matchup that pits BYU's offense (81.8 ppg-20th in the country) vs. Duquesne's defense (66.0 ppg-29th in the nation). The Dukes are coached by Keith Dambrot, LeBron James' high school coach at St. Vincent-St. Mary in Akron, has the Dukes playing inspired defense and ranked 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 98.2. That's the highest of the mid-majors that made the tournament. If you like taking teams that are on a hot streak, Duquesne has won their last eight contests, including another tournament team Dayton. This is another early start, although BYU is a little more accustomed to it having joined the Big 12 this season.
No. 12 James Madison (+190) vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (-5.5) Fri. 9:40 PM
The Dukes announced their presence to the basketball world on opening night when they traveled to East Lansing and defeated a then No.4-ranked Michigan State squad 79-76 in overtime. They then rattled off 13 more consecutive victories, including wins over Howard and Southern Illinois. They rank in the Top 20 in both offensive and defensive ratings. What makes this pick so compelling is the monumental collapse of the Wisconsin Badgers. They went 3-7 over their last 10 regular season games. They did have a good Big Ten Tournament, defeating Purdue in overtime before falling to Illinois in the championship game. Watching this team play all season, it seems as though there is something not right in the locker room. While I respect my colleague's opinion and handicapping skills, I differ from his opinion in this game as I strongly believe JMU will win to advance to the play on the weekend.
No. 13 Samford (+240) vs. No. 4 Kansas (-7.5) Thur. 9:55 PM (EST)
There is also strong historical precedence for this upset. In the 40 years of the expanded NCAA Tournament bracket, at least one 13-seed has defeated a 4-seed in 26 different tournaments. In 1987, 2001, 2008, 2018, and 2021, two 13's defeated their 4-seed opponents. Last year, Furman defeated Virginia. That's the historical angle, but here's the current one. Samford plus the points was already a sexy pick among many. However, when Kansas head coach Bill Self released the news that star guard and leader Kevin McCullar would not be playing in the tournament, the moneyline became attractive as well. Samford has the 5th-highest scoring offense in the country, putting up 86 points per game. They have four players averaging double-digits in scoring. The are 11th in the country in field goal percentage at 49.3% and 7th in 3-point percentage at 39.3%. That percentage isn't just because they shoot 3s sparingly, as they averaged 25.1 per game (54th nationally). They're 12th in the nation in pace with 75.5 possessions per game. Kansas has shown very little interest in playing hard when McCullar isn't on the court.
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