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March Madness Seeds vs. National Championship Odds 2025

by Jeremy Block - 3/19/2025

March Madness seeds vs. National Championship odds Johni Broome Auburn Tigers

March Madness is here, and we all know the deal - the chaos, the upsets, and the Cinderella stories that make it all so thrilling. But with all the madness comes a crucial question: do the tournament seeds actually matter when it comes to winning the National Championship? Sure, higher seeds get the respect, but history shows that upsets are just as likely to happen as the favorites making it all the way.

Let’s take a closer look at how the seedings line up with championship odds and which teams might just surprise you this year.

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South Region

Right out of the gate, Auburn comes in as the clear favorite from the South Region, absolutely dominating this year with +400 odds to win it all. Coached by Bruce Pearl, this Tigers team has been on an offensive rampage, averaging just shy of 84 points per game, ranking 10th in the nation. And most of that success can be credited to one of the nation's best forwards, Johni Broome, who’s averaging a double-double with 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, and is leading the Tigers in four of the five main stat columns.

While the Tigers have shown all year that their aggressive offense under Pearl’s system is almost bulletproof, they still have had their slip-ups when it comes to protecting the ball, struggling in the turnover department with an average of 9 per game. But it shouldn’t weigh them down too much.

Moving down the list, the Iowa State Cyclones may be a third seed behind Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans, but honestly, they look like the better team overall. With odds at +4500 to cut down the nets, I’d say that’s a bit far-fetched, but this Cyclones team is arguably one of the most balanced squads in this tournament. Averaging 80.4 points per game (37th in the nation), they’re led by Curtis Jones, who’s averaging 17.1 points and 4.3 rebounds. And their defense isn’t far behind, surrendering just 68.1 points per game.

Despite some hiccups in their last game against BYU, it’s likely the Cyclones have ironed out their defensive kinks and will remind everyone how strong of a team they are in this tournament.

West Region

The West comes fully loaded with teams ready to make a case to be a legit contender to cut the nets down, but obviously, it’s the Florida Gators leading the way - especially with the season they’ve had, winning their last six games and even taking down arguably the nation’s best defense, the Tennessee Volunteers. Florida enters this tournament with +380 odds to win it all. The Gators sit fourth in the nation, putting up just over 85 points per game, and rank third in rebounds, grabbing 42 per game. On the stat sheet, it’s senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. leading the way averaging 17.5 points and 4.3 assists per game.

But even though their odds look good to win it, this Gators team still struggles at the charity stripe, shooting just 71% as a team, which is just unacceptable for a No. 1 seed. Look, the Gators have had a great season thus far, but they’ll have their work cut out for them in this bracket -  most likely matching up with a red-hot St. John’s Red Storm in the coming rounds. Like Florida, the Red Storm have had an outstanding season, landing the second seed in the West, and come into this tournament ready to make some noise. They rank 31st in the nation in points allowed per game and are holding teams to just 40% shooting from the field, which places them 17th overall. Rick Pitino’s Red Storm are sitting with +2800 odds to win the tournament.

Adding to that, St. Johns has knocked off some of the country’s top schools this season, beating UConn, Marquette, and even New Mexico. St. John’s should have all the confidence in the world to take the tournament by storm. Between the lopsided odds against them and taking down top schools - including the reigning March Madness champions, the UConn Huskies - they’ll be ready to make a deep run.

East Region

There’s no doubt the East is getting the most media attention - and for good reason. Duke comes in as the heavily favored team to win it all with +300 odds, the best of any team, despite top NBA prospect Cooper Flagg spraining his ankle just a few games ago. The Blue Devils' offense has been on fire under head coach Jon Scheyer, averaging just shy of 83 points per game, and their defense is just as lethal - arguably even better, giving up only 61.9 points per game, good for 6th in the nation.

But the Blue Devils have some heavy lifting to do in this region, likely facing the Alabama Crimson Tide, who’ve been a force to be reckoned with this season, securing the No. 2 seed with +2000 odds. Like Duke, the Crimson Tide have been wreaking havoc on the offensive end, averaging a nation-best 91.1 points per game. They’re led by veteran point guard Mark Sears, who’s putting up 18.7 points and 4.9 assists per game, and forward Grant Nelson, who’s averaging 11.8 points and a team-high 7.6 rebounds.

Alabama has shown some defensive flaws, giving up points at a decent clip, but their offense has carried them past most of their opponents, which could spell trouble for anyone in the East region.

Let’s not forget the Arizona Wildcats, coming in as the No. 4 seed. Their odds might not be as appealing at +5000, but this team can still make some noise. They’re averaging 81.7 points per game, ranking 23rd in the nation, led by senior guard Caleb Love, who’s putting up 16.6 points per game. Like Alabama, their defense isn’t as strong as Duke’s, but they make up for it on the glass, grabbing 39.6 rebounds per game, good for 24th in college basketball. Even though the Wildcats fell short to Houston in the Big 12 Championship by double digits, I’m expecting that loss to fuel them to make a serious statement in this tournament.

Midwest Region

Now, the Midwest region is looking pretty interesting this year, with a solid mix of teams, and Houston stands out at +600 odds, ready to cash in and cut down the nets. Even though the Cougars are the top seed in this region, they’re not exactly the top offensive team, averaging just 74.2 points per game. But here’s the kicker - it’s their defense that screams 'title contender,' giving up only 58.5 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the nation. And you know what they say: defense wins championships. I’m counting on Houston to remind everyone why defense can still win games. Offensively, they’re not the deepest team, but senior guards L.J. Cryer (15.2 points per game) and Emanuel Sharp (12.6 points per game) are holding it down.

Another team to keep an eye on in this region is the Tennessee Volunteers. Like the Cougars, the Vols don’t live and die by offense - they thrive on defense, limiting opponents to just 63 points per game and leading the nation in opposing 3-point shooting, holding teams to 27% from deep. I mean, come on, that’s what I call ‘defense’. Offensively, they’ve got a bit more punch compared to Houston, with guard Chaz Lanier leading the charge at 17.7 points per game, followed by veteran point guard Zakai Ziegler, who’s nearly averaging a double-double with 13.8 points and 7.3 assists per game. The Vols came up short in the SEC Championship, losing 86-77 to Florida, but you can bet they’ll be hungry to redeem themselves, especially with odds sitting at +2000 to win it all.

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