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March Madness Seed Statistics for 2025 NCAA Tournament

by Spencer Toth - 3/19/2025

March Madness seed statistics RJ Davis UNC Tar Heels

March Madness starts in full on Thursday, and by now you have probably already filled out countless brackets in the chase for perfection. While seeding isn’t everything and there will certainly be upsets this year, examining recent trends can help you improve your odds of making winning brackets and bets. Here are the most relevant seeding stats for the upcoming 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

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Opening Round:

#1 Seed vs #16 Seed: 154-2 (98.7%)

#2 Seed vs #15 Seed: 145-11 (92.9%)

#3 Seed vs #14 Seed: 133-23 (85.3%)

#4 Seed vs #13 Seed: 123-33 (78.8%)

#5 Seed vs #12 Seed: 101-55 (64.7%)

#6 Seed vs #11 Seed: 95-61 (60.9%)

#7 Seed vs #10 Seed: 96-60 (61.5%)

#8 Seed vs #9 Seed: 75-81 (48.1%)

March Madness is known for its upsets, and knowing which seeds are most likely to pull off a shocking victory is crucial when filling out the early rounds of your bracket. The #1 and #2 seeds have prevailed an overwhelming number of times, with the #3 and #4 seeds not far behind. Assuming these trends remain consistent, there will likely be only one, maybe two upsets for the top 16 seeds (4 regions, top 4 seeds). While you will want to hold off on your bold choices there, once you drop down to the 5th through 8th seeds, upsets are quite common. The first round averages 4.7 upsets, and the bottom four seeds are responsible for more than 70% of those upsets. 

Odds to Reach Sweet 16: 

#1 Seed: 84.6%

#2 Seed: 63.5%

#3 Seed: 52.6%

#4 Seed: 47.4%

#5 Seed: 34.6%

#6 Seed: 28.8%

#7 Seed: 18.6%

#8 Seed: 10.3%

#9 Seed: 5.1%

#10 Seed: 15.4%

#11 Seed: 17.3%

#12 Seed: 14.1%

#13 Seed: 3.8%

#14 Seed: 1.3%

#15 Seed: 2.6%

#16 Seed: 0.0%

To reach the Sweet 16, teams will need to win their second-round matchup. In the second round, several intriguing trends appear. It is no surprise to see the top seed advance an overwhelming majority of the time, and seeds #2 through #4 are all usually matched up against weaker opponents. Including possible first round upsets, the top four seeds are all still likely to reach the Sweet 16, with that trend only amplified in recent seasons. However, this is where things get interesting. 

Due to the nature of the bracket, when a 10th through 12th seed pulls off the first round upset, they can avoid the top seed in the second round. This allows the #12 seed, who only wins the first round 35.3% of the time, to win nearly 40% of their second-round matchups. Similar trends can be found with the #10 and #11 seeds, as their second-round opponent is not much of an upgrade over their first round matchup. Compare this to the #8 and #9 seeds. They have an easier first round matchup but are then met with a daunting #1 seed in the second round. When predicting a first round upset with the #10-12 seeds, don’t hesitate to run it back with another upset in the second round. 

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Odds to Reach the Elite Eight:

#1 Seed: 66.0%

#2 Seed: 44.2%

#3 Seed: 25.6%

#4 Seed: 16.0%

#5 Seed: 7.7%

#6 Seed: 10.9%

#7 Seed: 6.4%

#8 Seed: 5.8%

#9 Seed: 3.2%

#10 Seed: 5.8%

#11 Seed: 6.4%

#12 Seed: 1.3%

#13 Seed: 0.0%

#14 Seed: 0.0%

#15 Seed: 0.6%

#16 Seed: 0.0%

This is where the Cinderella stories end. Winning the first two rounds can be done with a favorable bracket and some clutch shooting, but most of the lower seeds will be bounced in the Sweet 16. Reaching the Elite Eight is usually reserved for the top 3 seeds, with the trio taking up 67.9% of the Elite Eight spots. One or two lower seeds will likely sneak into the Elite Eight, but predicting shocking upsets at this stage of the tournament is usually unwise. The #8 and #9 seeds are still reeling from their second-round matchup against the #1 seed, but if they do reach the Sweet 16 they have a 58% chance of moving on to the Elite Eight. At the #12 seed, they reached the Sweet 16 an impressive 14.1% of the time, but have won their Sweet 16 matchup twice in their 22 appearances. 

After reaching the Elite Eight, seeding becomes less important as the playing field is only left with teams who have won three or more games. The best teams tend to be in the higher seeds due to their regular season showings, and the top few seeds generally end up advancing to the Final Four. The #1 seed ends up winning their region only 39.7% of the time, which means we will likely see multiple non-#1 seeds in the Final Four. Seeding is everything in the early rounds, but outside of the #1 seed, seeds #2-4 end up with similar splits after the first few rounds. Paying attention to trends like these can improve your odds of predicting a winning bracket at the 2025 March Madness tournament. 

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