March Madness Handicapping: 5 vs. 12 Seeds

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/19/2024

The 5 Seed vs 12 Seed matchup is always a trendy upset pick. This season is more of the same. Grand Canyon received a lot of praise during the Selection Show, while the McNeese Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the country and UAB and James Madison are both hot coming into March Madness, having won their conference tournaments. The Gaels are the only 5 Seed to have won their conference tournament, while San Diego State, Wisconsin, and Gonzaga all fell in their conference championship games.

The 5 Seed is 99-53 against 12 Seed all time. Let’s see how the two seeds match up in this year’s version of the Big Dance

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San Diego State Aztecs (5 Seed) vs UAB Blazers (12 Seed)

The Aztecs cracked the Top 25 rankings multiple times this season and have returned to the same spot they were in for last year’s Final Four run. Their resume includes a big win over Saint Mary’s (25 points), while also beating Gonzaga by 10 and Utah State twice by an average of 15 points. The Aztecs fell to a hot New Mexico team, despite Jaedon LeDee’s 25-point performance. LeDee leads the Aztecs offense, as the forward is averaging over 21 PPG, 8.4 RPG, and is the only player shooting better than 40% from deep. Reese Waters is the only other San Diego State player to average double digits and is almost automatic at the line.

As for the Blazers, they had a slow start to their season, going just 4-5 to start off. However, they would finish the season with a 19-6 record and an American Conference Tournament title. The Blazers are currently riding a five-game winning streak and have played much better defense down the stretch. Yaxel Lendeborg is their best player, averaging a double-double and shooting 51.8% from the floor. The Blazers have tremendous depth but lack a sharpshooter.

San Diego State is a 7.5-point favorite in this one, and the game total is set at 138.5.

The Aztecs defense is going to be the big difference in this one. UAB lacks offensive prowess, and their defense is ranked 10th in the American Conference this season. Lendeborg and LeDee will be an exciting match to watch throughout the course of this game, as each team runs their offense through these two players. UAB has no 3-point success. And if LeDee can stay out of foul trouble, his ability to get hot from deep will allow the Aztecs to get some separation.

My Pick: Aztecs get the win, but the Blazers will keep it close.

Wisconsin Badgers (5 Seed) vs James Madison Dukes (12 Seed)

The Badgers are a much better team than their seed and record shows. They have some tough losses on their resume against some of the nation’s best teams, but they have their fair share of impressive wins. They have ranked wins against Virginia, Marquette, and Purdue, while also going 3-0 against Northwestern and Michigan State. The Badgers dealt with some foul trouble in their final two games of the Big Ten Tournament but otherwise looked very impressive to end the year. AJ Storr led the team with 16.9 PPG, while Steven Crowl is the team’s leading rebounder and he also shot 45.5% from deep this season. Guard Chucky Hepburn is a minute eater and floor general and really came on at the end of the season.

The Dukes have not lost a game since January 27 and have averaged over 80 PPG since. Their defense is much improved and allowed only 80 or more in three conference games. They had an impressive win to start their season, beating Michigan State in overtime. Terrence Edwards Jr. is the team’s leading scorer with 17.4 PPG, while T.J. Bickerstaff (13.4 PPG) and Noah Freidel (12.1 PPG) join him in averaging over double digits a game.

The Badgers open as 5.5-point favorites over James Madison, with the game total set at 145.5.

The key to this one will be Wisconsin controlling the boards. They allow only 7.7 offensive rebounds per game, which will take away a key part of James Madison’s successful offense. The Badgers showcase a much better defense, allowing 69.9 PPG, than what the Dukes saw in the Sun Belt, and all three of their losses have been to teams who allow 71 PPG or less. Steven Crowl should be a huge mismatch for Wisconsin to exploit, as James Madison lacks size. Illinois poked the bear in the Big Ten Championship when they beat Wisconsin, and now James Madison gets to pay for it.

My Pick: Wisconsin -5.5

Gonzaga Bulldogs (5 Seed) vs McNeese Cowboys (12 Seed)

Despite losing only seven games this season, many would consider this Gonzaga team to be a failure. They had two silly losses to Washington and Santa Clara (both on the road), while their other losses were to Saint Mary’s (twice), UConn, San Diego State, and Purdue. Before losing the conference tournament final, the Bulldogs were riding a nine-game win streak and averaged 89.2 PPG over that span. Graham Ike is their leading scorer (16.5 PPG) and rebounder (7.2 RPG), while Anton Watson is right behind him in both categories, averaging 14.4 PPG and 7.1 RPG. Nolan Hickman is the team’s best three-point shooter, and Ryan Nembhard leads the squad with 6.7 APG.

The Cowboys lost just three times this season by a total of just 14 points. They showcase one of the nation’s best offenses. They won their conference with ease while carrying a +18.9 PPG differential throughout the season. McNeese did not have the toughest road but picked up wins over UAB, VCU, and Michigan. Shahada Wells is a name to know for this tournament, as he leads this team with 17.8 PPG. Wells is one of five Cowboys who shoots over 40% from deep. Christian Shumate leads the team with 9.5 RPG and is very efficient in the paint, shooting 55.2%.

Gonzaga is currently a 5.5-point favorite in this matchup, and the game total is set at 149.5.

There will be no shortage of offense in this game, and I think that plays into the hands of the Cowboys. They have posted elite numbers from deep this season, and Gonzaga allows a lot of offensive rebounds. McNeese will come out of the gates flying, as they look to prove they belong in the Big Dance. Gonzaga needs to get to the line and exploit McNeese’s carelessness with the ball if they want to avoid an upset.

My Pick: McNeese wins this one (+205) thanks to their three-point capabilities and a little luck.

Saint Mary’s Gaels (5 Seed) vs Grand Canyon Lopes (12 Seed)

The Gaels have lost just once in 2024 and have allowed more than 70 points just twice. They beat Gonzaga twice and picked up nice wins against Colorado State and New Mexico. They are 1-6 when failing to score more than 65 points, so a good defense could slow them down. However, this offense is better than what you may be used to from the Gaels. They are averaging 74.2 PPG and are shooting 35.5% from deep as a team. Alex Ducas is a name to keep your eye on in this one, as he is their go-to deep threat.

As for the Lopes, they are averaging 79.8 PPG and do a great job creating second chance opportunities. They have also played great defense this season and are one of the tallest teams in the nation. Grand Canyon has big wins over San Diego State and Sam Houston State, while also playing South Carolina close. Tyon Grant-Foster and Gabe McGlothan are going to be difference makers in this one.

Saint Mary’s is a 5.5-point favorite, while the game total is set at 131.5.

This one will come down to who can control the boards and shoot better from deep. Grand Canyon has the size advantage and also has more shooters. Grant-Foster is a play maker, and the Lopes hold opponents to just 40.8% from the floor.

My Pick: Both teams play elite defenses, but I like Grand Canyon to be this year’s Cinderella. Give me the Lopes +198.

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Pick:	DRAW (+295)
Start:	December 3, 2024 @ 1:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Soccer pick from Doc’s Sports for Tuesday: Take Mallorca/Barcelona to DRAW (+295) (1 p.m. EST, Tuesday, December 3) This is a very public line for Barcelona, who have been struggling lately and are not in top form. They are being lined in this matchup, however, like they are in form, and there is really great value on the draw here. Mallorca are no pushovers this season as they sit at No. 6 on the table and have earned points in 10 of 15 matches. They have won two straight, so they will enter this crucial matchup with confidence. We are not sure they have enough to earn the full three points, but Barca are vulnerable right now. They have earned only one point in their last three league matches, and that was a road draw at Celta Vigo. They dropped their last match at home, 2-1, to Las Palmas as a massive favorite. But the oddsmakers aren’t punishing them for their recent poor performance, so there is value here in the draw. The last meeting at Estadi Mallorca resulted in a 2-2 stalemate. Read More Read Less

March Madness Handicapping: 5 vs. 12 Seeds

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