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March Madness Handicapping: 5 vs. 12 Seeds

by Jeremy Block - 3/19/2025

March Madness handicapping 5 vs 12 seed Vladislav Goldin Michigan Wolverines

March Madness is notorious for its upsets, and one of the most exciting matchups is always the 5 vs. 12 game. History has shown time and time again that these are the games where Cinderella stories are born, and the 12-seed pulls off the unthinkable. If you're not paying attention, you could find your bracket busted early.

While the 5-seed is typically favored, the 12-seed usually brings something special to the table -- whether it’s a star player, a hot streak, or just a team that’s built to thrive under pressure. So, if you’re looking to handicap these games like a pro, let’s take a look at the first round matchups between the 5 and 12-seeds.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

UC San Diego (12 seed) vs. Michigan (5 seed)

To say that the Tritons have momentum on their side is an understatement. UC San Diego hasn’t taken a loss since January 19th, rattling off 15 straight wins, including a dominant 75-61 victory over UC Irvine to clinch the Big West Championship. This Tritons squad has a defense that loves to apply pressure, averaging nearly 10 steals per game, and limiting opponents to just 61.6 points per game. Offensively, they’re putting up 79.6 points per game, led by senior guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who’s been on fire this season, averaging 19.5 points per game. Tyler McGhie isn’t far behind, chipping in 16.4 points per game.

The Michigan Wolverines bring a completely different style of play, looking to dominate in the paint. They’ve won their last three games, taking down tough opponents like Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin. Offensively, it’s all about the bigs: Vladislav Goldin leads the charge with 16.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, while Danny Wolf adds 13.1 points and 9.8 rebounds.

Look, the Tritons definitely have the momentum, but they haven’t faced a top-20 team all season, while Michigan has had marquee matchups all season and took care of business. UC San Diego will keep this one interesting, but they won’t have an answer for Michigan's big-man driven offense.

My pick: Michigan -2.5 

Colorado State (12 seed) vs. Memphis (5 seed)

It might be a shock to see a 12-seed favored over a 5-seed, but this one actually makes sense. The Colorado State Rams come in with a solid 25-9 record and haven’t lost since February 19th. They’re riding high after a dominant 69-56 win over Boise State in the Mountain West Championship. Averaging 75.2 points per game and holding opponents to 77 points per game (ranking 45th in the nation), they’ve been tough on both ends. Leading the charge is guard Nique Clifford, who’s been a force, averaging 19 points and 9.7 rebounds per game.

On the flip side, Memphis comes with a fast-paced offense under Penny Hardaway. The Tigers don’t bring the same defensive firepower as the Rams, but they make up for it on the offensive end, averaging 80 points per game. Guard PJ Haggerty and forward Dain Dainja are the offensive focal points, with Haggerty putting up 21.8 points and 3.8 assists per game, while Dainja chips in 14.4 points and 7.2 rebounds.

Here’s the deal: The Tigers will need to contain Nique Clifford and make sure Haggerty gets his shots if they want to survive and advance. This is shaping up to be a neck-and-neck matchup, but I think Memphis will edge it out. Despite their turnover issues, their elite scoring duo should outweigh Colorado State’s defensive pressure.

My pick: Memphis +1.5 

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Liberty Flames (12 seed) vs. Oregon Ducks (5 seed)

The Liberty Flames might be a 12-seed, but don’t let that fool you - they’ve been rolling, winning five straight and securing their first-ever CUSA title by taking down Jacksonville State. This team has been scorching from deep, ranking 13th in the nation with 10.6 made threes per game while putting up 76.6 points a night.

And the fire starters? That would be Taelon Peter and Kayden Metheny. Peter leads the charge with 13.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, while shooting a ridiculous 46% from deep, while Metheny isn’t far behind, averaging 13.5 points and 39% from three. But don’t sleep on Liberty’s defense, either. This squad doesn’t just shoot  - they get stops, holding opponents to 63 points per game (10th in the nation) and ranking 13th in 3-point defense, giving up just 5.8 threes per game. 

Oregon comes in as the 5-seed with a solid 24-9 record, but they’re fresh off a Big Ten Championship loss to Michigan State, 74-64. Like Liberty, the Ducks can put up points (76.2 per game), but their 3-point shooting? Not great. They love to launch from deep but only hit 34% as a team. Instead, their offense flows through big man Nate Bittle (14.1 points, 7.4 rebounds) and guard Jackson Shelstad (13.2 points per game). 

The Ducks are the favorites, mostly because of their schedule and regular-season resume. But Liberty has the momentum, better shooters, and better defense - a recipe for chaos. Sure, stopping Oregon’s Bittle will be an issue, but Liberty’s elite perimeter play on both ends could put Oregon in a bind real fast. I’m all in on Liberty covering and making this a down-to-the-wire matchup. 

My pick: Liberty +7

McNeese Cowboys (12 seed) vs. Clemson Tigers (5 seed)

The McNeese Cowboys are rolling, riding an 11-game winning streak after locking up back-to-back Southland Conference titles with a 63-54 win over Lamar. They put up 77.2 points per game, but let’s be real - their defense is what’s turning heads. Allowing just 64 points per game, they rank 15th in the nation in scoring defense.

Offensively, McNeese spreads the wealth, with multiple guys averaging double figures, but it all starts with Javon Garcia (12.9 points per game) and Christian Shumate (10.6 point per game, rebounds per game), who’s been eating on the glass lately. 

On the other side, Clemson has been just as hot, going 9-1 in their last 10 before getting bounced by Louisville in the ACC Tournament. The Tigers put up 76.3 points per game and, like McNeese, they get stops, holding teams to 65.7 points per game. Their offense runs through Chase Hunter (16.4 points per game) and Ian Schieffelin, who’s knocking on the door of a double-double with 12.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. 

McNeese has the defense to keep it interesting, and they’ll try to throw Hunter off his game early. But here’s the thing - Clemson’s offense is just better. Between Hunter’s scoring and Schieffelin cleaning up on the boards, I don’t see McNeese having enough firepower to pull this off. Expect Clemson to take control late and cover the spread. 

My pick: Clemson -7.5

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