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2025 March Madness Bracket Predictions: West Region

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/17/2025

March Madness bracket predictions West Region Alijah Martin Florida Gators

The East Region is a top loaded region with the Blue Devils and Crimson Tide headlining a region and potential Cinderella team VCU Rams looking to do some damage. The Midwest Region is full of upset bids, while the South Region looks like they could be the first to lose their top-seeded team as the Auburn Tigers will have a difficult second-round matchup against the winner of the Louisville vs Creighton game.

The West Region is the only region in the bracket that looks like there may not be any first-round upsets. Florida has been playing at an elite level down the stretch, and it doesn’t look like they can be stopped. St. John’s and Texas Tech were slept on heading into the season and are now ready to make a deep run. The upsets will be limited, and this region should give us an exciting Regional Final (Elite Eight) game. Let’s take a look at the top seeds in the region and identify some key matchups.

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*Value in parentheses reflects odds to win the region

No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators (-120)

Florida came storming out of the gates, winning 13 in a row, and then they dominated in the SEC. The Gators went on to post a 14-4 record in what was an absolute gauntlet of a conference, and they wound up winning the conference tournament after going 3-0 with a +45-point differential. They are currently riding a six-game winning streak, and every team they beat within that streak is a tournament team. They ranked third in the country in scoring, averaging 85.4 PPG, while their defense was suffocating, as they limited their opponents to 39.8% from the floor and 29.6% from deep. Florida was 12th in the nation in offensive RPG, and their +8.2 RPG differential was the ninth best mark in the country. Florida ranks amongst the best in terms of offensive efficiency, with a lot of that being attributed to their star guard Walter Clayton Jr. who is averaging 17.5 PPG and is shooting 37.7% from deep.

Florida has looked like the best team in the country over the course of their current winning streak, and they are bringing in a lot of momentum into the tournament. Alijah Martin, Will Richard, and Clayton Jr. are all averaging more than 30 MPG and are averaging a combined 4.6 SPG. Then you mix Alex Condon into the fold, and you have another capable scorer who dominates the boards. This is an experienced and disciplined team that plays hard the entire game. Their path to the championship may be tough, with a potential Round of 32 matchup against the defending National Champions, and then with St. John’s and Texas Tech lurking at the bottom half of the region. Despite that, to be the best you have to beat the best, Florida has been beating good teams all season, and they look like true National Champion contenders.

No. 2 Seed: St. John’s Red Storm (+650)

St. John’s quickly proved their legitimacy and became one of the best teams in the country this season. Their four losses were by a combined seven points, and three of their four losses came to tournament teams. They didn’t have a tough nonconference schedule, but they completely dominated the Big East, going 18-2 and going 7-1 against UConn, Marquette, and Creighton this season. This veteran-led team averaged 78.7 PPG this season, and they were one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, averaging 14.5 a game, which ranked fourth in the country. They play a physical game and suffocate opponents at the arc, and they ranked inside the Top 20 in the nation in SPG and BPG. RJ Luis Jr. was one of the best scorers in the Big East, as he averaged 18.4 PPG while also bringing in 7.2 RPG. He was one of three Red Storm players to average more than 12 PPG this season, with Zuby Ejiofor (14.6 PPG) and Kadary Richmond (12.7 PPG) joining him.

They do play a complete game, but their offense is their weak spot, and they are not great at playing from behind with a lack of three-point ability on this team. Their defense is among the best in the nation, and that is how they win games. Over the course of their three games in the Big East Tournament, the Red Storm allowed just 62 PPG while averaging just under 80 PPG. They are a physical team that aims to wear down opponents and jump out to a big lead late. Few teams can match this team’s physicality, and St. Johns has Final Four potential.

No. 3 Seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders (+480)

Texas Tech finished second in the Big 12 standings during the regular season after going 15-5 in one of the toughest conferences in the country. They are just 5-3 over their last eight games, with a bad loss to TCU, but all three losses were by eight points or less. JT Toppin has been the leader of this team all season, averaging 18.1 PPG and 9.2 RPG. Darrion Williams (36.5%), Chance McMillian (43.4%), and Christian Anderson (40.7%) form a lethal three-point trio for the Red Raiders, and each of these three players are averaging more than 10 PPG. Texas Tech allowed 67.6 PPG this season, which ranks fourth in the Big 12, and they finished second in the conference with a +6.1% 3P% differential.

Don’t sleep on these Red Raiders. They rank seventh in the NET Rankings and have proven to be one of the toughest teams in the country. They run an incredibly efficient offense, and they have proven themselves in some pretty hostile environments, picking up wins at Houston and Kansas this season. Toppin gives them the star power profile you would like to see on a Final Four caliber roster, but the Red Raiders have a tough path, having to sneak past Florida and St. John’s to reach the Final Four. Unless there are some major upsets in this region, Texas Tech will likely finish their season in the Sweet 16.

No. 4 Seed: Maryland Terrapins (+1000)

The Terps didn’t garner a lot of attention this season, and it’s recommended you take a deep dive into this team before writing them off. They went 14-6 in the Big Ten, which proved to be a much tougher conference than people expected this season, and they picked up wins against UCLA, Wisconsin, Illinois (twice), and Michigan. They finished third in the Big Ten with 81.7 PPG, while shooting over 37% from deep as a team. The Terrapins also had the second-best scoring defense in the conference, as they allowed just 67 PPG this season while holding opponents to just 30.7% from deep while also leading the conference with a +2.9 SPG differential and a +2.0 BPG differential. Their starting five all average 28 MPG or more, and they are all averaging at least 12 PPG, with Derik Queen leading the way with 16.3 PPG. Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Selton Miguel are both shooting over 41% from deep, while Queen and Julian Reese are both averaging nine RPG.

They don’t have the depth you would like to see out of a team you would send to the later rounds of this tournament, but this Maryland team may be the sleeper of the tournament. The Terps have an underrated defense, and they could give Florida a run for their money in the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, though they may be a Top 10 team in the country, their season ends in the Sweet 16 unless Florida miraculously gets knocked out beforehand.

No. 5 Seed: Memphis Tigers (+7500)

It is hard to do much better than a 9-3 start to the season, especially when two losses were against Auburn and Mississippi State, but the Tigers ended the season 20-2 and are riding an eight-game winning streak into the tournament. It is worth noting that every single game they played in their conference tournament was decided by an average of just 5.3 points. PJ Haggerty is an elite scorer and ranked third in the country in scoring with 21.8 PPG. He is shooting better than 38% from deep and is consistent from the free-throw line. Dain Dainja is a nice compliment to Haggerty, as he is averaging 14.4 PPG and 7.2 RPG while also shooting over 61% from the floor. Memphis finished the season with a +6.9-point differential average, which ranked just 72nd in the country, and they allowed over 73 PPG this season which was fifth in a weak AAC.

Aside from Haggerty and Dainja, Tyrese Hunter was solid for Memphis this season and was their biggest threat from deep. Unfortunately, there is some injury concern as he was in a boot and is slated to miss the first two rounds at least for the Tigers. Without Hunter, it is hard to see the Tigers getting past the second round of this tournament with a potential matchup against Maryland waiting in the wings.

No. 6 Seed: Missouri Tigers (+1400)

All in all, Missouri had a special season, no matter how it ends. They failed to win a single game in conference play a year ago, and this season they finished 10-8 in the regular season and picked up some key wins against Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State (twice), and Alabama. Unfortunately, Florida avenged their January 14th loss and knocked out the Tigers in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament. Missouri did rack up some losses late in the season, as they finished the regular season going just 4-6, though all six losses came against tournament teams. Transfer guard Mark Mitchell came to Missouri and became their leading scorer this season, as he was one of three players to average more than 13 PPG this season, leading the way with 14.1 PPG. Complimenting Mitchell are Caleb Grill, Tamar Bates, and Anthony Richardson II who are all shooting better than 40% from deep.

Missouri is a dangerous team and may be overlooked as the sixth seed in this region. They may be the third best team in the West Region. The Tigers need to be locked in against the Drake Bulldogs, who are putting them on upset alert. Missouri’s defense isn’t the best, and they can get lazy around the perimeter. Drake does shoot well from deep, but they also have the best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 58.4 PPG. If Missouri can avoid the upset, the Tigers could reach the Sweet 16.

Upset Alert (First Round): No. 10 Seed: Arkansas Razorbacks vs No. 7 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks

This may only be considered an upset because of the seed difference, Arkansas may very well be the better team, especially if Boogie Fland can play during the tournament. Kansas failed to pick up consistent momentum this season after winning their first seven games. They have the talent to be considered a National Champion-caliber team, but they have not gelled after bringing in some of the best transfers in the nation. However, if Arkansas is healthy, they could knock out the Jayhawks in this one. However, it is key to pay attention to injury news surrounding Fland and Adou Thiero.

Upset Alert (First Round): No. 11 Seed: Drake Bulldogs vs No. Seed: 6 Missouri Tigers

As mentioned, the Bulldogs are putting Missouri on big time upset notice. Drake is being highlighted on a national scale as one of the favored Cinderella potential teams this season. Drake plays incredible defense, which could slow down the high-flying Missouri offense. If they can slow the game down, and they can stay out of foul trouble, Drake matches up well against the Tigers. Missouri is used to averaging over 57 shots per game. And with Drake allowing less than 47 FG attempts per game, Missouri can’t afford a cold start. Don’t let the strength of schedule and conference difference keep you from giving Drake some consideration.

Dark Horse Team: No. 11 Seed: Drake Bulldogs

You may not know a lot about the Drake Bulldogs. However, if you need a one-word description of the team, it’s “defense”. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring defense, allowing just 58.4 PPG. They slow the game down, and opponents are averaging just 46.6 FG attempted per game while they are holding opponents to just 31% from deep and they do an excellent job preventing second chance opportunities. Their +3.8 SPG differential is the third best mark in the country. Mitch Mascari is their biggest deep threat (41% 3P%), and he is on the floor for over 38 MPG on average. Mascari is joined by Bennett Stirtz (19.1 PPG, 38.6% 3P%), who averages 39.3 MPG, giving Drake a consistent deep-shot presence. The depth is questionable. And if they run into foul trouble, then they are in trouble. However, Drake could reach the Sweet 16 and give St. Johns a run for their money in what would be the defensive game of the century.

Over Hyped Team: No. 5 Seed: Memphis Tigers

Memphis lucked out in their conference tournament. They shouldn’t struggle against Colorado State in the first round. However, if they play Maryland in the second round, they will lose. Haggerty is one of the nation’s top players. But with the injury concerns surrounding Hunter, and their less than impressive play down the stretch, the Tigers may be in trouble. Don’t buy into the Haggerty hype, as he alone won’t be able to carry this team past the Round of 32, unless Grand Canyon upsets Maryland. If they do, Memphis won’t get past the Sweet 16. They don’t play great defense, and Maryland will shut them down. Memphis may be a conference winner, but they are overrated.

March Madness West Region Predictions

Florida has been playing like the best team in the country down the stretch, and they have one of the easiest paths to the Elite Eight. Playing St. John’s or Texas Tech could be an incredibly exciting Elite Eight matchup, but Florida is widely considered as a legit National Champion contender this season, and they have talent up and down the roster. Drake will be an exciting team to follow if they can upend Missouri, but they may be the only true Cinderella teams in the West Region. Though there are always unexpected upsets in the first round, if there were to be a region this year that saw the top eight seeds avoid the upset, it’s the West Region. Florida or St. John’s will emerge as the West Region’s Final Four representative, and either team could win it all. Florida is currently the second most popular National Champion pick behind Duke, and for good reason. Florida is the best team in the country, and they have a lot of momentum heading into the tournament.

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