2024 March Madness Bracket Predictions: South Region

The NCAA Tournament is madness.

Sort of.

We know WHAT is going to happen this weekend in the NCAA Tournament. We just don’t know WHEN it is going to happen. But chaos is a certainty; it is a feature of this glorious contest, not a bug. So let me walk you through the rituals that take place every year – but still seem to surprise everyone when they occur.

First, there will be blowouts. Most of the top tier teams from the big boy conferences will hammer weaker opponents. A few other games will threaten to be interesting, only to turn into boring wins whose only drama involves the spread.

Next, there will be some exciting games that come down to the final minutes. Sprinkle in some big shots, big runs, and maybe a thrilling last second bucket or two, and the juices in this tournament will get flowing.

And before you know it, the upsets will wreak havoc on brackets from coast to coast.

There are 24 teams seeded No. 1-No. 6 in their region. Over the last 38 years, an average of 4.7 teams seeded No. 6 or better have gotten upset in the opening round. Last year, four teams seeded No. 11 or worse won their opening game, including No. 16 Farleigh Dickinson stunning No. 1 Purdue. There were six upsets from No. 11’s or lower seeded teams in 2022, seven in 2021, five in 2019 and four apiece in 2018 and 2017.

That means that over the last six tournaments, an average of five teams seeded No. 11 or worse won their opening round game. Those are the “bracket busters”.

When these upsets happen, everyone will start screaming about how “insane” an “unpredictable” the NCAA Tournament are.

But if it happens every – single – year, then just how “crazy” is it?

Since 1985 (the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams; it went to 68 in 2011), an average of 1.8 teams seeded No. 13 or worse win their opening round game. An average of 3.2 teams seeded No. 12 or worse pull the outright upset in the first round.

That means we should expect about five of the lower seeded teams (11-16) to win their opener and advance. And one or two of those teams will likely be schools seeded No. 13, No. 14, No. 15, or No. 16.

The upsets won’t stop after the first round, though. The clock will strike midnight for most of Round 1’s Cinderellas in their second game. However, an average of around three double digits will survive until the Sweet 16. That has been the case in 32 of the last 38 NCAA tournaments. (Only one double-digit seed won its second game last year.)

So, while things are going to seem chaotic – Upsets! Buzzer beaters! Bracket busters! – these things are all fairly routine.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

With that in mind, here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the South Region:

No. 1 Seed: Houston Cougars (+150 to win South Region)

Houston moved up in weight class to the Big 12 this year and dominated, winning the regular season crown and making the tournament finals. And no team in the country has won more over the last six years than the Cougars, who are 179-30 straight up since the start of 2018-2019. Houston has also been great in The Big Dance, making the Final Four in 2021, the Elite Eight in 2022, and the Sweet 16 last year. What is not to like? The backcourt of Jamal Shead, L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Damian Dunn is as good as any in the nation. And this Houston defense, No. 1 in points allowed and No. 2 in field goal defense, can choke the life out of teams.

Houston NCAA Tournament Predictions: I had a friend ask me last Friday night, “Do you think Houston can win it all?” To which I quickly answered, “No.” I don’t like to lean on teams that lack depth and lack multiple scoring options. We’ve seen teams that ‘win with defense’ flame out in plenty of past tournaments. And while I don’t anticipate an early exit for this group I have to say that I think they are overvalued regarding their title hopes.

No. 2 Seed: Marquette Golden Eagles (+450 to win South Region)

It is really all about Tyler Kolek. The Marquette point guard really is the triggerman for this entire team. Remember Steve Nash in Phoenix? Kolek is a poor man’s version of that, setting teammates up, confounding opponents with brilliant ball handling and passing, and hitting clutch shots. When they are right, Marquette is one of the best teams in the country. However, Kolek has missed most of the last three weeks with a core muscle injury and his return is the key to this group.

Marquette NCAA Tournament Predictions: Shaka Smart has lost six of seven first-round matchups, including going 1-4 since he left VCU. He is 2-7 ATS in his past nine NCAA tournament games and Marquette flamed out in last year’s opening weekend as a No. 2 seed. If healthy, this team would’ve been a Final Four contender. If Kolek isn’t at full strength they could be set for another early exit.

No. 3 Seed: Kentucky Wildcats (+450)

Don’t get roped in by the name. Yes, the Wildcats are an exceptionally talented team. No, they are not national title contenders. Only two of their top nine are seniors and five of their top seven players are freshmen. Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reeves, D.J. Wagner and Reed Sheppard form an elite offensive force capable of shooting the Wildcats past anyone in the field. The problem is that these kids don’t play any defense, coming at No. 339 in the country while allowing 79.1 points per game.

Kentucky NCAA Tournament Predictions: Kentucky has had moments this year. They beat North Carolina on a neutral court and have run past teams like Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama. However, this group hasn’t shown enough consistency for me to think that they can win four straight, much less six.

No. 4 Seed: Duke Blue Devils (+650)

It’s tough to follow a Legend. And Jon Scheyer is doing better than most. But this Duke program is no longer the overwhelming powerhouse that everyone assumes it is. Duke was a No. 5 seed that didn’t survive the opening weekend last year. They are a soft No. 4 seed this season with just two wins over Top 30 opponents. Kyle Filipowski is the next in a long line of dirty, whiny Duke players. Filipowski, Mark Mitchell and Ryan Young are the primary interior weapons for this team. The problem is that Duke lacks the high-end, NBA-caliber guard play that used to be its hallmark. Jeremy Roach is very good. But he’s not good enough to carry this team against an equal opponent.

Duke NCAA Tournament Predictions: Everyone watching the NCAA Tournament has two favorite teams: their alma mater/team they grew up with and whoever is playing Duke. Fortunately for all the Duke Haters, this Blue Devils team isn’t close to a national title contender and are a longshot to win this region.

No. 5 Seed: Wisconsin Badgers (+1000)

The Badgers are easily one of the most erratic teams in the NCAA Tournament Field. They started the year 16-4 with blowout wins over Marquette, Virginia, SMU, Michigan State and Nebraska. The Badgers followed that with a 3-8 slog that put them squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Then Good Wisconsin showed up again, winning three straight, including an OT victory over Purdue, to make the Big Ten title game. This is a vintage Badgers team, with big men that can shoot and guards that can score inside, with explosive A.J. Storr and Chucky Hepburn capable of big nights. They are a skilled, tall, experienced team capable of beating, or losing to, anyone in the field.

Wisconsin NCAA Tournament Predictions: Your guess is as good as mine. They could lose to James Madison. They could beat Houston and go to the Elite Eight. This group is a total X-factor in the South.

No. 6 Seed: Texas Tech (+2000)

Meh. That’s been my feeling about the Red Raiders all season. They played a joke of a nonconference schedule and then did just enough early in Big 12 play (starting 5-1) where they could ride the coattails of the rest of the league to this bid. Is Texas Tech one of the Top 25 teams in the country? No. But here they are. Pop Isaacs is a clutch player and the sophomore point guard will do what he can to carry this team. Transfers Joe Toussaint (Iowa) and Kerwin Walton (UNC) are veterans. But injuries have beat this team up on the interior and I don’t think they do anything well enough on either end (they are outside the Top 115 in field goal offense and field goal defense) to really be considered a threat.

Texas Tech Tournament Predictions: I’m talking all this trash about Texas Tech; watch them make the Sweet 16. Ha! Seriously though, these guys are the No. 6 seed in this region but there is no way they are one of the 10 best teams in this part of the bracket. 

Best first-round match up: No. 6 Texas Tech (-4.5) vs. No. 11 N.C. State

Who doesn’t love the Wolfpack right now? They just won five games in five nights to blast their way into the tournament field. Can they keep that momentum going? The Wolfpack have four talented guards and a trio of capable big men, including D.J. Burns. They are playing their best basketball at the right time and, most importantly, they have a load of momentum. We know at least a few double-digit seeds are going to win their opening game. Why not the Pack?

Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 Duke vs. No. 5 Wisconsin

This is a rematch of the 2015 national championship game. It is a marquee game with two top tier programs, either of whom can use this win as a springboard to the Final Four. Neither the Blue Devils nor the Badgers go very deep, so this would really be a high-level game between both teams’ top six or seven guys, trading blows for a full 40 minutes.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 5 Wisconsin (-5.5) vs. No. 12 James Madison

James Madison opened the season with an overtime win at Michigan State. How you feel about Michigan State may color how you feel about that victory. But JMU also beat Virginia on the road two years ago and nearly beat them again in Charlottesville last season. The Dukes have 31 wins this season and are riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games. The cherry on top is that this would be a vintage 5-12 upset, putting the Badgers on high alert.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 7 Florida/No. 10 Boise State/No. 10 Colorado

It isn’t that I don’t like Marquette. But, frankly, any one of these three potential opponents could give them all kinds of problems. Florida can score (ask Alabama, who the Gators have hit for 105 and 102 points this month) and just won three games in the SEC tournament. Boise State has several guys that are matchup problems. And Colorado has brushed off midseason injury issues to win eight of their past nine games. The Buffs also boast potential NBA players in Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams, along with do-it-all guard K.J. Simpson. As I mentioned, Marquette couldn’t survive last year’s tournament as a two-seed. It won’t be any easier this year.

Dark Horse team: No. 3 Kentucky

I really don’t think that Kentucky is a national title contender because of their terrible defense, their youth, and their inexperience. That said, these guys have some serious young talent. I also feel as if they have a favorable path. If someone can take out Marquette for them, then the Wildcats will be hefty favorites all the way until the Elite Eight.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 2 Marquette

I could’ve gone with Wisconsin or Duke here. But Marquette is seeded higher and thus has greater expectations. But Kolek’s injury, a difficult draw, and Shaka Smart’s sketchy tournament history have put a target squarely on the Golden Eagles’ backs. At full strength this is a deep, talented team that has a quirky style and is capable of taking out any team in the tournament. We don’t know if they are full strength. They could suffer another opening weekend flameout or they could get hot and make a move to the Elite Eight. This is a tough team to forecast.

2024 South Region Predictions: We have a lot of big names in this group. Houston, Kentucky, Duke and Wisconsin all move the meter. However, this is one of the most volatile regions in the field because all those teams have clear flaws and have shown an ability to play up and down to its competition. That is, except for Houston. I think the opening weekend is going to tell the tale, with most of the top seeds in this group getting bounced in big upsets and setting the stage for one of these big names to get hot and go on a run to Phoenix.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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