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2025 March Madness Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/17/2025

March Madness bracket predictions Midwest Region Chaz Lanier Tennessee Volunteers

The West Region is Florida’s to lose, with teams like Maryland and Drake who could make it further than expected, while the East Region seems to be the most chalk region out of the four in the Big Dance.

The South Region may have a slight edge in terms of just how deep it is compared to the Midwest Region, but the Midwest has a couple of legit title contenders. Both of these regions have incredible upset potential.

The High Point Panthers and the McNeese Cowboys are two exciting lower seeds to track at the beginning of the tournament in the Midwest Region, but No. 6 Seed Illinois has some Elite Eight potential. Houston should take care of business here, but there are some other elite defenses in this region that could potentially upend the Cougars. Let’s take a look at the top seeds in the region and identify some key matchups.

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*Value in parentheses reflects odds to win the region

No. 1 Seed: Houston Cougars (+120)

Heading into December, there were some that doubted the Houston Cougars were a top team. They had started the season going just 4-3, but they quickly silenced the doubters and went on to go 26-1 to finish the season and have won their last 13 games. Three of their four losses were in overtime, and all four of their losses came by a combined 14 points. Houston allowed just 58.5 PPG this season, which was the second lowest mark in the country, as their opponents made just 38.3% of their shots. The Cougars aren’t known for their offense, but their top three scorers are shooting better than 42% from deep. Houston also ranked third in the Big 12 in offensive RPG. This is a scary team that plays at their pace and dominates their opponents.

The Midwest Region leads the four regions in terms of variability, as they have a lot of teams that are capable of pulling off upsets. However, Houston should still find their way to the Elite Eight and are legit National Champion contenders. If they run into a hot Clemson team, they could get knocked out early, but that is the only scenario where they don’t make it to the region finals. Houston deserves to be looked at as a title contender.

No. 2 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers (+370)

The Volunteers fought for the final No. 1 seed up until the conference title game. However, because they fell to Florida, they ended up as the second seed in the Midwest Region. Tennessee is another Final Four contender out of this region after they went 12-6 in a tough SEC conference and had only one bad loss (30 points to Florida). Chaz Lanier was incredible for Tennessee this season, as he led the team with 17.7 PPG while shooting 40% from deep. Zakai Zeigler was one of the best facilitators in the country, as he finished fifth in the country with 7.3 APG while also averaging over 13 PPG. The Volunteers defense ranked 11th in scoring, as they allowed just 63 PPG, and they kept opponents to just 27.8% from deep, the best mark in the country.

Tennessee could run into Kentucky in the Sweet 16, which could be an issue, as they have already lost to the Wildcats twice this season. However, the Vols are capable of winning it all. Their defense is elite, and Lanier and Zeigler give you the star power you need for a deep run. And the potential Elite Eight matchup between them and Houston could be one of the best contests we have seen this season.

No. 3 Seed: Kentucky Wildcats (+1000)

Kentucky earned the third seed despite their stumbles down the stretch. They finished the season on a mere 8-8 run over their final 16 games. They went just 10-8 in the SEC while also picking up a poor nonconference loss against Ohio State, losing by 20. They did go 6-0 against the likes of Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. Otega Oweh led the team in scoring, as he averaged 16.2 PPG, and he is one of six Kentucky players to be averaging more than 10 PPG. Koby Brea is their biggest weapon beyond the arc, while Amari Williams is averaging 8.5 RPG to go along with his 11 PPG, and he is shooting a team best 57.8%. However, the Wildcats don’t play great defense. They gave up 77.9 PPG this season, which ranked 324th in the country.

All eyes are on Lamont Butler and his availability ahead of their first-round matchup. He is invaluable on defense and a reliable presence on offense, if he is out, then Kentucky might be in trouble. Troy doesn’t feature an outstanding offense, but it is hard to see Kentucky making it far with this shaky defense. They will see the end of their season in the Sweet 16.

No. 4 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers (+1400)

Purdue has struggled down the stretch. They have gone just 3-6 since February 11, with two of those three wins coming against non-tournament teams and all but one of their losses have come against tournament teams. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been an elite scorer for Purdue, as he has averaged 20.2 PPG and is shooting nearly 43% from deep. He is one of just three players on this Purdue team averaging more than 6.5 PPG and is one of three players averaging over 30 MPG. Braden Smith (16.1 PPG, 8.7 APG) and Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PPG, 46.4% 3P%) are the other two Boilermakers who are averaging more than 30 MPG. Though they have another five players averaging more than 15 MPG, they lack scoring depth. Purdue led the Big Ten with +7.7 3P% differential while also leading with a 38.5% 3P%. However, their defense ranked just 151st in the country and eighth in their conference.

With their poor defense and lack of depth, the Boilermakers are on big team upset alert as they are set to take on the High Point Panthers, who have quietly been a top program in the country. Even if they manage to avoid the upset, Purdue won’t make it out of the second round. This is a team with a lot of underserved hype.

No. 5 Seed: Clemson Tigers (+1400)

Clemson has won 15 of their last 17 games, with both losses coming by just three points, and their wins included Duke and North Carolina. Their nonconference slate was weakened with three losses to South Carolina, Boise State, and Memphis, but they took care of business in the ACC, going 18-2 in the regular season and reaching the conference semifinals. Chase Hunter leads the team in scoring, with 16.4 PPG, and he is shooting 41.2% from beyond the arc and 86.3% from the charity stripe. Clemson finished fifth in the ACC in scoring (76.3 PPG) and second in scoring defense (65.7 PPG). They take care of business at the line, and they win the perimeter battle as they are shooting better than 37% from deep.

Clemson is hot, and their loss to Louisville in the conference semifinals is only going to fuel them ahead of the tournament. They will have to squash a McNeese Cowboys team that is capable of pulling off the first-round upset, but Clemson has the potential to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight season. Like Houston and Tennessee, their defense can carry them deep into the tournament.

No. 6 Seed: Illinois Fighting Illini (+1000)

Illinois limped to a 12-8 finish in the Big Ten thanks to a slew of injuries that drastically hindered this team’s potential. They have won four of their last five games, but they were just blown out by Maryland in the conference tournament. What they decide to do after the lingering 23-point loss is up to them. The Illini may benefit from the injuries forcing their depth players to get some exposure, as their depth now may be a strength for this team as they have five players averaging double digits and an offense that ranks 11th in the nation. They don’t play great defense, but Illinois is an excellent rebounding team, and they finished 29th in the country in offensive rebounds.

Illinois may finally be at full strength as they head into the tournament. They should take care of business in their first-round matchup, which will set up an intriguing second-round matchup. And they could find themselves in a shootout against Kentucky if they get there. Illinois won’t quite make it back to the Elite Eight this season, but they are a team with Sweet 16 potential.

Upset Alert (First Round): No. 13 Seed: High Point Panthers vs No. 4 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers

Everybody pay attention to the High Point Panthers. Not only are they in as the Big South Conference winner, but this team was also floating around in the ‘Others Receiving Vote’ tier for much of the second half of the season. They averaged 82.2 PPG and shot better than 36% from beyond the arc. Kezza Giffa is averaging 14.8 PPG for the Panthers, while D’Maurian Williams is shooting 39.8% from deep. Purdue struggled to end the season, and their defense is highly questionable. Lookout for the Panthers busting your bracket.

Upset Alert (Second Round): No. 13 Seed: High Point Panthers vs No. 5 Seed: Clemson Tigers/ No. 12 Seed: McNeese Cowboys

These Panthers feel like the Cinderella team of the tournament. Not only do they put up more than 82 PPG, but their defense was also the best in their conference, and they ranked 78th in the nation in scoring defense. It is hard to pick against Clemson, because they are a legit Elite Eight contender, but High Point has the magic surrounding them and they could find themselves in the later rounds of this tournament.

Dark Horse Team: No. 13 Seed: High Point Panthers

The Panthers are my Cinderella team for this region, and they may just mess around and find themselves facing Houston in the Sweet 16. They had a weak schedule, but they are riding a 14-game winning streak into the tournament, and they have won five of their last seven games by more than 20 points. It will be no easy task to knock out Purdue or Clemson, but they may get some help if McNeese, another team with a real upset chance, can knock out the Tigers in the first round. High Point is going to be this years St. Peter’s.

Over Hyped Team: No. 4 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue gets the most overrated and over hyped team in this region. They haven’t done anything impressive since their pre-Christmas wins against Alabama and Ole Miss. They limped to a 3-6 record over their last nine games before the tournament. Their defense has taken a tremendous step back from last season, and they lack depth. Purdue is in major trouble against High Point. And even if they can escape the first round, Clemson will send them home. It is a head-scratcher on how Purdue managed to earn the fourth seed in the Midwest Region, but they are not even a top five team within the region.

March Madness Midwest Region Predictions

This is the region with the biggest variance. There is a lot of upset potential all over this side of the bracket. Houston has an elite level defense. However, if they run into a hot Clemson team, they may have a quicker than expected exit. Gonzaga is another team to keep an eye on. They may not beat Houston, but they could wear them out ahead of the Sweet 16 round. Illinois is another wild card who could somehow win the region thanks to getting healthy.

However, despite all the noise in this region, Houston will take care of business and reach the Final Four. Their defense is just too good, and their offensive numbers (74.2 PPG) may not be appealing, but it isn’t for lack of ability. They play at their pace and let their defense do the talking, but this team is capable of exploding on offense, as they have scored 85 or more points six times this season. Houston is a legit National Champion contender.

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