Mad about March - March Madness College Basketball Wagering Guide
We have created a visual guide to March Madness College Basketball Wagering. You can get some of our free college basketball picks (here).
March Madness is a Month's Worth of Action for College Basketball
Tournament Time - There are multiple winner-take-all tournaments to wager on from start to finish this month:
- 31 Conference Tournaments
- NCAA Tournament
- NIT Tournament
- CBI Tournament
- CIT Tournament
The Big Dance
- The NCAA Tournament is the second biggest gambling event of the year (behind the Super Bowl).
- At least $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Tournament each year.
- An estimated $1.2 billion worth of productivity is lost in American businesses due to the NCAA Tournament.
- 67 total tournament games = 67 opportunities
Filling Out Your Bracket
- NCAA Tournament brackets are one of the most popular and socially accepted gambling opportunities in the country.
- Odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 128 billion!
- Work backwards: Pick the team you like to win the championship first and then work from there.
Here's a chart you may be able to use for national championship wins by seed:
Seed |
Number of Wins |
Percentage |
#1 |
21 |
58.33% |
#2 |
5 |
13.89% |
#3 |
5 |
13.89% |
#4 |
1 |
2.78% |
#5 |
0 |
0% |
#6 |
2 |
5.56% |
#7 |
1 |
2.78% |
#8 |
1 |
2.78% |
#9-#16 |
0 |
0% |
Here is a chart you may be able to use for Final Four appearances by seed:
Seed |
Number of Final Four Appearances |
Percentage |
#1 |
57 |
39.59% |
#2 |
31 |
21.53% |
#3 |
16 |
11.11% |
#4 |
14 |
9.72% |
#5 |
7 |
4.86% |
#6 |
6 |
4.17% |
#7 |
2 |
1.40% |
#8 |
6 |
4.17% |
#9 |
2 |
1.39% |
#10 |
0 |
0% |
#11 |
3 |
2.08% |
#12-#16 |
0 |
0% |
Know the scoring in your bracket. If you get significantly more points for correct games later in the tournament then be conservative and don't go "upset crazy" early. Final Four winners are more valuable so put more focus on those and work backwards.
Don't pick more than one or two double-digit seeds to advance to the Sweet 16. These teams can be good for an upset or two in the opening rounds but they don't usually go much further. And if they do no one else picked them either!
Don't "go chalk" and pick all the favorites and No. 1 seeds to advance to the Final Four.
- Only once in 36 years has the Final Four featured all four No. 1 seeds (2008)
- Only four times (1993, 1997, 1999, 2008) in the last 36 years have three or more No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.
Beware the 5-12's! Every year there is at least one No. 12 seed that knocks off a No. 5 seed. You have to pick at least one.
Tips For Betting March Madness
- Pay Attention To Conference Tournaments.
- You don't want to wait for the NCAA Tournament to familiarize with these teams.
- Don't Get Pinned Against Public Teams.
- The books always inflate the lines on teams like Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina.
- Ride The Hot Hand
- Continue to play teams entering the tournament on big ATS winning streaks and teams that got hot during their conference tournaments.
- The exception is a bottom-tier team that came out of nowhere to win their conference tournament for an automatic bid. Those teams normally have big letdowns.
- Not All Stats Are Created Equally
- Defensive efficiency - Defense wins championship! Field goal defense and defensive efficiency is a better measure than points per game.
- Free Throw Percentage - Teams need to be able to close out games in the last two minutes from the line.
- Strength Of Schedule - You want to bet on teams that are battle-tested.
- No Stats - Don't get too wrapped up in stats this time of year. Matchups, momentum and mental toughness are more reliable indicators.
- Ignore The Trendy Underdogs
- "Upsets" are games that no one sees coming. Don't get caught betting on the trendy upset picks in the early rounds.
- Beware Of Reverse Line Movements
- Don't Be Afraid Of Favorites
- Everyone loves underdogs. But the books are giving them less and less points in recent tournaments, shifting the value to certain favorites.
- Don't ignore the smaller tournaments.
- Bet against teams that were snubbed or left out of the NCAA Tournament in the NIT, CBI and CIT.
- Bet on teams with lots of seniors. They don't want to see their careers end and will play hard to the final minute.
Have Fun But Remember...
- Don't bet above your means just because it is March Madness.
- If you hit a cold streak take a few days off. There are games every day and plenty of action throughout the months. Things can snowball quickly if you hit a rut.
- Maintain your money management!