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2024 MAC Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/11/2024

MAC Tournament predictions Dante Maddox Toledo Rockets

Champion Week is upon us, with the regular season wrapping up over the weekend. Some conferences have already begun their conference tournaments, but the majority and major tournaments will tip off mid-week. The Mid-American Conference begins their tournament on Thursday and will feature the conference’s top eight squads. Though everybody loves some MACtion in the fall, basketball is not the conference’s strong suit. The conference went a combined 0-24 against Quad1 opponents this season, and their 6-28 record against Quad2 opponents wasn’t much better. With that being said, the only member of this conference to make the tournament is going to be the conference winner. Let’s take a look at who gets a shot at the conference tournament title.

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#1 Toledo Rockets 20-11 (14-4), +340 to win

Despite no team in the conference beating a Quad1 opponent, the Rockets came close a couple of times as they lost to New Mexico and Indiana State by a combined 10 points. Their offense led the way in the conference, averaging 80.7 PPG while shooting 48% as a team and 37.9% from deep. Ra’Heim Moss and Dante Maddox Jr. both lead this offense averaging over 15 PPG. The biggest knock on this team is their size.

#2 Akron Zips 21-10 (13-5), +155 to win

As for the Zips, they too had close losses to the nation’s better teams. They lost to Utah State by three and fell to UNLV by two. Their defense is the real deal and has held opponents to 66.2 PPG and limits them to just 43.1% shooting from the floor. Their perimeter defense is stellar and has kept opponents to 30.4% from beyond the arc. Their +8.4 PPG differential and +4.4 RPG differential lead the conference.

#3 Ohio Bobcats 19-12 (13-5), +330 to win

The Bobcats struggled in nonconference play, which set them back from the get-go, but they carry a six-game winning streak into the conference tournament, and they have won 12 of their last 15 games. Though they lack a star, they have three guys averaging double-digit PPG, with five more averaging five or more a game. They have some depth, which comes at a premium as we get to March. They ranked second in the conference with 77.6 PPG while leading the conference with a +3.0 APG differential.

#4 Central Michigan Chippewas 18-13 (12-6), +2200 to win

Despite grabbing the four-seed in the conference, the Chippewas may be a little overrated. They needed overtime to pick up four of their conference wins. They finished the season with a -3.3-point differential, they shot a combined 66% FT% and averaged only 66.8 PPG, which was the second worst mark in the MAC. They did, however, pick up a win against Toledo earlier this season.

#5 Bowling Green Falcons 19-12 (10-8), +1400 to win

The Falcons played one of the easiest schedules in the nation and took care of business, for the most part. They ranked 5th in the conference in PPG as they averaged 74.2 a game while their defense was serviceable, allowing 71.2 PPG. Bowling Green struggled from beyond the arc this season, as they shot just 29.9% from beyond the arc, and their -5.7% 3P% differential is the second worst in the conference. Playing from behind will prove difficult for the Falcons, so it is imperative they get control early.

#6 Western Michigan Broncos 12-19 (9-9), +6500 to win

Despite finishing seven games below .500, the Broncos have a shot at the ultimate prize. They rank in the lower half of the conference in both PPG and opponents PPG. Their roster features just two guys who have averaged 10 or more PPG this season, and the team has shot an abysmal 63% from the charity stripe. They did end the year with a victory over Akron, so perhaps they are at least making Ohio nervous for the first-round matchup.

#7 Miami (OH) RedHawks 15-16 (9-9), +1600 to win

The RedHawks’ last two contests were anything but fun, as they went 0-2 in back-to-back 20+ point blowouts to Toledo and Ohio. Their defense has shown dominance at times, as they rank second in the conference in allowing just 69.9 PPG, while keeping the opposition to just 42.6% from the floor. They lead the MAC with a +4.6% 3P% differential, indicating their ability to get back into the game.

#8 Kent State Golden Flashes 15-16 (9-9), +600 to win

Last, but not least, the Golden Flashes of Kent State. Despite their sub .500 record, they have the fourth best odds to take home the MAC crown and snag the automatic qualifier. They went 1-7 against the top four teams in this tournament during the regular season. The Golden Flashes average 75.6 PPG and can get hot from deep, with four guys shooting 38% or better from beyond the arc.

First-Round Matchups:

Toledo vs Kent State

Toledo won the regular season series 2-0, winning by 15 and 14 points, respectively. The Rockets scored more than 85 points, shot over 50%, and controlled the pain in both games.

Akron vs Miami (OH)

The Zips lost to Miami (OH) by two in their only matchup this season. Akron stumbled to the finish line going 3-5 to end the year. If the RedHawks get going from deep, they could pull off the first round upset.

Ohio vs Western Michigan

Ohio lost their only regular season game against the Broncos by two points on the road. It is worth noting that Western Michigan shot 42.1% from deep in that game, which is far better than their 34% season average. The Bobcats should control this one and get their revenge when it matters most.

Central Michigan vs Bowling Green

These two teams played twice in the regular season, needing overtime and double overtime to determine the outcome. The Chippewas were victorious in both contests, with both games being decided by one possession. This should be the most entertaining first-round game in this tournament.

Prediction:

Though Miami (OH) feels like the perfect fit for the Cinderella type, that gets hot from deep and hits the miraculous shot, I think Toledo wins the tournament. Akron limped to the finish line, and the majority of these teams have no offense. The Rockets went 7-3 against the other seven teams in this tournament. They are the most complete team in the MAC.

Toledo +340

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